During the previous period the market was trying to price its expectations of a less than three rate cuts during the course of this year, giving up on the Fed's announcement from the latest FOMC meeting. The meeting held on May 1st, showed that the market was right in its assumptions, considering that the emerging US inflation might put halt on rate cuts this...
The critical support level to watch here is the 50-day MA at 4.38%, as a failed break below this yield will allow yields to spike to 5% off the back of a continued sell-off in US long-term paper despite the Feds efforts to aid the US bond market. Keep an eye on the tail in this week’s US 10-year note auction! The markets were hit by a dovish FOMC statement last...
This chart shows the bullish SMT Divergence happening across the US Treasury Bond yields. According to the ICT methodologies this could indicate a potential continuation for the DXY Index higher.
Rough map pf rate expectation without pretension of accuracy for dates nor timing...
Disclaimer 1: This is a bias view. I think that 20Y yield (as well as 10Y) will be going down. Disclaimer 2: Note that this is the 2nd time this year I am calling for longer duration yields to go down (linked in this analysis). Analysis portion: 1. H&S formation. 2. Completion of double combination of zig-zag.
As you can see there is a strong correlation between this predictive chart algo and the bond market steepening predicting the recession before the reason why. Now maybe this time is different. Maybe the massive stimulus during covid will give a false positive here. I just doubt it.
Golden Cross approaching for US 20 Year Bond Yields in advance of the Federal Reserve's Wednesday Meeting and Friday's Unemployment and ISM PMI Reports. TLT to low 80's over next few weeks?
Short term #yield is higher. Long term has turned & are catching a bid. At the moment it doesn't look like they're going down any time soon & that is not good longer term. Was speaking with loan officer yesterday & they believe they must lower before election. But, what if it goes higher before it goes lower? TVC:TNX
The early morning Asian sessions saw some peculiar moves with the USDJPY pair falling to a low of 154.56. There are rumors of possible FX intervention from BoJ to save their vulnerable Yen. Simultaneously, there was strong buying pressure for the US 10year which is pulling yields down aggressively. The US 10-year yield is showing signs of pulling back following...
Released data for the US economy during the previous week could point to the stagflation moment in the US during the course of this year. Posted data for core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price index show that in March it increased by 2.8% on a yearly basis, from 2.6% expected by the markets. At the same time, the first estimate for the US GDP Growth Rate was...
1O YR yields may have topped and are retracing. Yields are rolling down ⤵️ TLT is up ticking 📈 as yields come down as expected 🧭
In case you missed the memo.... US 10 Year bonds have a higher yield than Greek 10 Year ones..
My projection for this week was a bit late but nonetheless, bullish projections of lowest displacement fair value gap was the target and yields achieved it, topping out just before CE was met @ 4.696%. Shortly after, yields witnessed a sharp paintbrush retracement mid week and never closed out higher than the highs printed on Wednesday 17th April 2024. On...
10 year looks to be heading to 5 or 5.5 %. MACD and RSI showing upward trend on weekly still. Upward fib extension looks to retest previous high or beyond if Fed doesn’t lower rates anytime soon. Looking for CPI prints to see whether Inflation is going back up which may impact 10 year and I believe the market will continue down while 10 year heads upwards so I’m...
Sometimes a drawing can speak better than words, or at least present an idea in a better and more efficient way. This project involves projected tendencies and forces that might affect the price, represented with the curves as attractors and influencers with their respective arrows pointing the direction of the potential simulated pressure applied to the...
1O YR yields may have topped and are retracing to 4.4%. ⤵️ TLT which have an inverse relationship with the yields are reversing back up. 📈 Time to short 10 YR YIELDS and Long TLT? 🤔 🧭 👇
Introduction: I won't have many comments on the US 10-Year Treasury Bonds (US10Y) as the statements made by Chairman Powell could alter the chart. In my estimation, it seems unlikely that there will be further interest rate cuts for a while, which could have positive implications for the price of gold. Technical Analysis: The chart for US 10-Year Treasury Bonds...
To be or not to be – the rate cut this year? The markets switched their expectations from March and May toward September, although currently not with high certainty. Recent data show still high resilience of the US economy on tight monetary policy. Retail sales in March were increased by 0.7% on a monthly basis, which was a figure much higher from 0.3% expected by...