Breakout_Charts

Breakout_Charts

All over financial news we're being told that the yield curve is inverting, spreads are flattening, the recession clock is ticking, there's impending doom around every corner. CNBC, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance, The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, The Economist, you pick your favorite news source and they're talking about 2's and 10's, 10's and 30's, it's...

Breakout_Charts

There are a number of reversal patterns that playout time and time again. The most reliable of the reversal patterns is the "Head & Shoulders" top and bottom. Some technicians don't like to use the term head & shoulders as it's used quite a bit and not all reversal patterns are confirmed and end end up being consolidation patterns instead. Whatever you like to...

Breakout_Charts

There's an apparent "reverse head & shoulders pattern" on the Monthly 30 Year Yield Chart. The implication of the broken neckline is a reversal of the previous downtrend. Dow theory teaches us that the minimum upside target is the depth of the neckline to the peak of the "head." I see potential resistance at the downward resistance trendline and then again at the...

Breakout_Charts

How many times have you heard "Don't Fight The Fed" Well, the Fed is throwing us a gigantic fat slow-ball pitch. It's up to us as traders to hit the ball. JPow said he's raising rates. JPow said he's going to stop inflation. JPow said he's going to be data dependent. Are you fighting the Fed? Short Bonds. Stay Short on Bonds. Don't FIGHT THE FED.

Breakout_Charts

I really like this setup here. Deere & Company consolidated for about two years and then moved to the upside for a 120% gain over the next year. Then it rested and digested those gains for about ten months. This week $DE broke out of the consolidation on heavy volume. What I really like about this breakout is the previous week saw heavy selling volume signifying...

Breakout_Charts

The world order established after WWII is changing before our eyes. Indexes have broken their uptrends. Nasdaq stocks have been crushed. Old commodities are becoming more important to nations than ever before. Security isn't guaranteed. As investors our goals remain unchanged. Give ourselves and our families the best chance to succeed through financial...

Breakout_Charts

Does XLE reverse the relative downtrend vs $VT that started nearly a decade ago? With the month coming to an end soon it'll be interesting to see where this candle closes.

Breakout_Charts

This is an equally weighted representation of the FANG+ Complex. Needless to say an important group for the indexes. The good: The group is above support level and the point of control. The bad, the group is below the 25 and 50 week SMA and those moving averages are starting to curl downwards. Bulls would like to see the group retake the moving averages especially...

Breakout_Charts

$F was shallacked today on disappointing numbers. On weekly chart former resistance held as support despite the selling pressure. I actually like F long as long as this support level holds.

Breakout_Charts

The week closed on a positive note. Support in the $430 area has held up nicely. 25 Week SMA looks to be a new resistance area. As long as $430 area maintains support the chart suggests consolidation over further downside. A weekly close over the 25 Week SMA would be constructive. Volume is encouraging the last two weeks as well. Buyers stepped in when they had...

Breakout_Charts

I refer to the yellow highlighted area as the penalty box. This seems to be an area of indecision with pockets of support and resistance. A lot has been going on in this area. As of the close today we're back testing resistance at $453.19. The intra day high eclipsed that level briefly but resistance has not yet flipped to support. On the bullish front, the rally...

Breakout_Charts

The above chart is a daily candle chart of the S&P 500 represented by SPY. The red arcing area is a distribution phase. The yellow highlighted area seems to be an area of indecision with both pockets of support and resistance. With in this area there's a possible "follow through day". Which, as described by Famed Technician William O'Neill is: "A follow-through...

Breakout_Charts Updated 

I like the setup I am seeing for resolution to the upside for semi-conductors here. I do have one concern but I'll address that shortly. On the left is a weekly candle chart of SOXX the iShares semi-conductor ETF. The upward trendline from the covid-crash trough is firmly intact. The 100 Day EMA has proven to be key support. The index started consolidating the...

Breakout_Charts

Netflix collapsed and touched its pre-covid crash peak. Looking at the FANGplus Complex as a group, there's cracks in the armor. Is Netflix a warning on what is yet to come? Do markets want to trade back down to their pre-covid crash peak? The weight of the evidence is certainly pointing towards a sizeable correction. Thoughts?

Breakout_Charts

I enjoy long term charts. It allows me to drown out the noise and find the signal. I find this chart interesting. What we're looking at is a monthly candle chart of the S&P 500 SP:SPX The moving averages used are 10 month MA and 24 month MA. Looking at a chart since 1995 the index has closed below the 10 month MA a total of 13 times. 10 of the 13 times the index...

Breakout_Charts

This is a monthly candle chart of the FANG complex. The last time the group had a monthly close below it's 10 Month moving average it traded back down towards its trend line. The stocks traded down for about 5 months and consolidated for another 8 months, when looking at them as a group. If you have a 401K, IRA, and 529 plans consider how much exposure you have to...

Breakout_Charts

$GLD testing resistance on the downward trend line. Volume was massive today. Looking for follow through and a close above that downward resistance line. Looks like support was established on the low of the bearish engulphing candle on the monthly chart. I'm thinking that the high of that candle will offer resistance if the downward wedge line is flipped. (Perhaps...

Breakout_Charts Updated 

This is a long term monthly chart of the US Dollar. There was a bullish divergence back in the 1980's that preceded a long term strengthening dollar throughout the 90's. There's a bearish divergence that started in 2014 and is intact today. I don't like to put to much emphasis on inter-market analysis because it can cause paralysis by analysis. However, wouldn't...