There are 2 ways that AAPL can move but I have a bias for it to breakdown instead of us. The reason is because the entire market has overran too far and too long in an almost straight line way and it seems like most are on the peak.
This analysis is based on the expectation that AMZN's last wave is an ending diagonal. This analysis will not invalidated if price moved above 187.24 because currently wave 3 is the shorter than wave 1 and thus wave 5 cannot be longer than wave 3 (see green Fibonacci).
I've published the short idea for HSI on 18th Mar and this is how it has gone since. I've updated the counts to what I think are the waves that unfolded since. Simply put, the next move is down.
Silver experienced what I would call a healthy pull back because it hits the upper trendline and came down. My bias is still LONG in the long-term but holds no position until price breaks out or reassess when it hits the lower trendline.
The peak for Bitcoin is already made based on: 1. 5 wave structure 2. 2 Fibonacci Extension levels
Based on convergence of 2 Fibonacci levels and potential ending diagonal setup (for another ending diagonal setup, please see linked analysis). Please take note that this is using Oanda CFD.
My last analysis for HSI was a bullish call. Since then, the move for Hang Seng up move hasn't been that clean and I thought that it is time for me to publish the bearish alternate count. As should be clear, I have termed the up move as a triangle, and thus expecting a move down at least to the low made on 22nd Jan. Note: I have linked my bullish breakout analysis here.
I haven't been using EW to do SE analysis for a while now after I have called the peak and continued call for it's drop when it's going down. The truth is, I can't be bother to try to continue doing EW on this after it has fallen so far. If anything, I will look for long opportunities now for SE. Unfortunately, there is no clear sign that this stock will...
As I've drawn on this chart, we have seen 2 days of high volume down days and there is a breaking of the trend line on Friday. I expect the coming week to see a wave 3 down move that will minimally see SPY at 498.
I had done the previous update in a rush (since very close to the EOW session close) and didn't update the count (especially since lines were drawn from higher timeframe). So this is an update to the breakdown of the ending diagonal.
Update that I expect SPX, SPY to crash on Monday for more than 100 or even 200 points.
This is an update to my previous analysis where I mentioned that I am expecting an ending diagonal. Based on the low set yesterday, I am expecting 2 different entry points for shorts: 1. If price hits the upper trendline around 6th Mar (Wed) close or 7th Mar (Thurs) opening. 2. If price falls below 5056. I also mentioned the inte-market analysis using the 10...
I am now expecting that the 10Y yield to crash and thus the trade here will be to long ZN futures. Please note that what this implies is that rates are coming down and there will be a rotation from equities to fix income and that means equity markets WILL CRASH sooner rather than later.
Using 2 Fibonacci extension levels, I have a convergence. Take note that price do not have to reach there. The current resistance seems good enough to start scaling in your short position.
We are seeing the most unsustainable rally in the Japanese market. The rally is not backed by a similar rise in usd/jpy. So usdjpy can now be assumed to have made a top and the recent upmove is a corrective wave up.
Bullish case: 1. End of corrective wave 2 2. Price-RSI Divergence 3. Price-Volume Divergence 4. RSI double bottom
I have been calling for SPX short and recently the hitting of Fibo extension target seemed able to stall the price advance. But the wave structure doesn't seem like the end (unless I mis-counted and missed a wave somehow). So over here, I drawn out in purple what I thought the path of SPX will be like. Down then up and the entire structure will bring us to the end...
Hang Seng has broken out of channel that was almost 7 months in the making. This is a bullish. Coupled this with the end of EW counts and China crack down on malicious short-selling or selling of stocks and pledge to support the equity markets.