The DXY and the US 10-year yield fell sharply following Friday’s better than expected non-farm payrolls report for the month of December 2021 which saw the pair reject the 50-day MA at 17.30 as well as the blue 38.2% Fibo retracement level of 17.44. The dollar started this week on the back foot in the local session which has allowed the rand to test the...
The USD/ZAR pair seems to be in an ABC corrective wave pattern after completing a 5-wave impulse that commenced in April this year. Following last week's presidency scare, the rand has been able to pull the pair back below the 23.6% Fibo retracement rate of 17.50. Positively for the rand, it managed to keep the pair below the 50-day MA resistance rate of 17.74 and...
Markets seem to be betting on a Fed pivot which has seen a pullback in the DXY and the US 10-year yield but only time will tell if the DXY has truly topped out. For now, the pullback of the greenback presents an opportunity for the ZAR to stage a minor recovery. I'm expecting the ZAR to pull the pair lower into the range between the top of the third impulse wave...
The DXY let off some steam following yesterday's relatively upbeat US GDP data for Q2 which opened the window for some ZAR strength. The DXY's recent rally saw the greenback gain roughly 4.4% from the past 10 days but the yearly high of 109.27 remains intact for now. All the focus will however be on Powell's Jackson hole speech later today and markets may have to...
Big break below the 200 week MA last week was major but the rand is trading in overbought zones. Possible retracement back to 14.50 before another break lower. Low CPI results from SA this week could however be rand positive.
Inverted hammer forming on the 1day candle. Is the ke dezemba rand party over?
Possible retracement to around 15.50 before a move towards 14.60 in the new year. Waiting for a crossover buy signal on the MACD but the indicator should turn positive soon. Elliott wave oscillator is expected to hit the upper downward trend line before breaking the wedge to the downside.
The pair is working into a wedge and it's being squeezed by the 50- and 200-day EMA's. I expect the 200-day EMA to hold but tomorrow's ECB meeting could see funds flowing to emerging markets which places the 200-day EMA at risk of being broken. Opinions?