Following last week's buy signal (chart below) on the S&P500 index (SPX), we shift our attention on the 1W time-frame where the new long-term buy signal has just been confirmed:
As you see, the price closed above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) yesterday, invalidating any bias for further decline and confirming the resuming of the long-term bullish trend within...
The S&P500 index (SPX) hit our 4350 Sell Target that we set on last week's idea (see chart below) and immediately started a two day rebound:
This rebound is taking place just above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as the Resistance. We've mentioned countless times that the long-term pattern is a Channel Up since the October...
Last week we gave a sell continuation signal on the S&P500 index (SPX) after the price failed to break above the short-term Resistance of 4H MA50 (see chart below):
As the price hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) last Thursday for the first time in 3 months, the index found its first long-term Support level. Along with being near the bottom (Higher Lows...
The S&P500 index (SPX) is within a corrective wave in the form of a Channel Down, which may have found a Support on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) but as long as it trades below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), it remains bearish. As a result our target is 4430 on a potential contact with the 1D MA50 (red trend-line).
If however it closes a 4H candle above the 4H...
The S&P500 (SPX) index has been rising non-stop and appears not to be influenced by yesterday's Fed Rate Decision. The price reached however the top of Channel Up 1, the pattern that has been driving the price action since the October 13 2022 Bear Cycle bottom. This calls for a technical pull-back similar to the December 01 2022 and February 02 2023 Higher Highs,...
S&P500 (SPX) made a yearly High last week and a Higher High on the Channel Up pattern that started on the October 13 2022 market bottom and guided the market out of the 2022 Bear Cycle. This Higher High opens up two sell possibilities one on the short and one on the medium term.
The short term indicates that a Megaphone pattern similar to April 04 - May 04 is...
Nasdaq's (NDX) incredible run (left chart) since the start of the year (+37%) has seen the index break above the Last Lower High of the Bear Cycle (13730) while at the same time avoiding a Death Cross on the 1W time-frame in epic fashion. It even broke above the RSI Resistance of the price's ATH (when the index was on its All Time High).
At the same time, the...
We don't often look at VIX but the times we do, it never fails to offer valuable insight regarding the long-term factors on stock indices trends. Since March, may have left wondered why the S&P500 (blue trend-line) has took off so considerably without any meaningful pull-back. Well despite the prevailing fundamentals surrounding the market overall, VIX (candles)...
The S&P500 hit both targets we set two weeks ago as it reached the top of the 7 month Channel Up pattern:
This is the first major sell signal that we get on the 1D time-frame since the previous Higher High on February 02 2023. Unless the price closes a 1D candle above the August 16 2022 High (4327), we expect a short-term pull-back towards the 1D MA50 (blue...
note: the CBOE:SPX avwap from the previous financial crash in 2008 has been a buy whenever the retrace has aligned with the golden pocket.
Could be a nice HKEX:1000 move coming if the short setup comes into play
Major bullish signal for the S&P500 (SPX) as it closed a 1W (weekly) candle above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since the week of August 15 2022. That was the weekly candle that formed the next Resistance 1 in line, the 4330 level (Aug 16 High).
The 1W RSI has already broken above its Rising Wedge since two weeks ago and the 4330 Resistance 1...
The S&P500 index (SPX) gave us the expected pull-back and buy entry within the Rising Wedge as per our last week analysis (chart below):
The long-term structure is a Channel Up, so plan your trades in case of a Rising Wedge break-out. On the short-term, we expect the price to pull-back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the bottom of the Rising Wedge at...
The S&P500 index (SPX) hit last week our long awaited 4190 target, a level we set 2 months ago (see idea below):
That trade was taken right before the 1D MACD formed a Bullish Cross, the 2nd within the long-term Channel Up pattern. Last Thursday, the index completed the 3rd Bullish Cross of the Channel Up and continues to rise within a shorter term Rising...
We have been so focused on the short-term Channel Up on the S&P500 (SPX) since March (see idea below) that we didn't publish any analysis on the longer term dynamics:
This analysis offers critical insight on where we are with regards to the long-term/ Cyclical trend. One parameter that stands out is that the S&P500 index has failed on two occasions to break...
Almost 2 months ago and the S&P500 (SPX) hasn't diverged from our original idea, after buying the bottom of the 6-month Channel Up:
We believe that looking into the 1W (weekly) time-frame again will help at giving a fresh outlook and technically the best illustration of the current situation. First we narrowed the Channel Up to the candle bodies and treat the...
The S&P500 (SPX) has had an excellent run following our buy call more than one month ago:
Right now we see a Megaphone pattern in formation on the 4H time-frame and with the price above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) holding since March 29, we are targeting the top (Higher Highs trend-line) at 4200.
If the price...
The S&P500 (SPX) has had an excellent run following our buy call more than one month ago:
Yesterday though it flashed a sell confirmation as the price broke and closed below the Higher Lows trend-line of the recent Channel Up bottom. Both previous times this happened (December 06 2022 and February 17 2023, it was a major sell signal towards a new Channel Up...
This analysis is basically an extension of the study we published last week, explaining how the index is starting an aggressive expansion:
Based purely on the 3W time-frame, now we have incorporated the Sine Waves to clearly display the cyclical buy/ sell pattern inside the long-term Channel Up that started at the bottom of the Housing Crisis (March...
