SpyMasterTrades

SpyMasterTrades Updated 

The chart above shows the S&P 500 (SPX) relative to the price of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond (1/US10Y). As you can see, when adjusted in this way, the S&P 500's decline in 2022 is no longer apparent. This could be a warning that further stock market decline is to come. Let's walk through why this may be. First, it is important to understand that an interest...

SpyMasterTrades Updated 

Top of mind for investors and traders right now is whether or not the S&P 500 has reached its bottom. While this is an impossible question to answer and depends on which timeframe one is looking for a bottom, I will attempt to provide an general analysis below. First, the chart above is a quarterly chart (each candle represents a 3-month period) of the S&P 500....

11:04

SpyMasterTrades

Thinking that the war in Ukraine would cause the price of natural gas to surge higher over the winter, many traders got stuck on the wrong side of a trade. Natural gas futures have plunged more than 90% over the winter. In this video, I explain that regression analysis was warning that a significant price decline was imminent in late 2022, and I explain that it...

13:08

SpyMasterTrades

A rare perfect fractal chart of Tesla just appeared. In this video, I explain that while it may be bullish in the short term, the long-term chart looks quite ominous. Link to my TradingView post on Advanced Bull Flag Concepts: Important Disclaimer Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Trading and investing always involve risks and one...

19:54

SpyMasterTrades

In this video, I explain what to expect in the months ahead, following the Fed's pivot back to monetary easing. Also, I wanted to make several notes: When I said that it's almost never better to own derivatives than holding an asset outright, I do realize the importance that derivatives can play with leverage and risk management. When I said that fear is...

19:18

SpyMasterTrades

There is a lot of fear and uncertainty about bank runs right now, but fortunately, TradingView's charts give us objective and unbiased insight into the actual state of U.S. bank liquidity. In this video, I explain some key charts that you can use to analyze banking liquidity. You can add these charts to your Watchlist so you're always able to get a pulse on the...

SpyMasterTrades

The Federal Reserve's extreme tightening just caused the second-largest bank collapse in U.S. history (in nominal dollars). In this post, I will explain just how far the contagion is likely to spread, and why this is likely just the start of what may be widespread liquidity crises. In early 2022, in order to mitigate the record inflation it caused, the Fed...

SpyMasterTrades Updated 

The chart above is a yearly chart of the ratio of the 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) to the 2-year Treasury yield (US02Y). The chart is meant to highlight how extreme the yield curve inversion is getting. Typically a yield curve inversion is indicative of an impending recession. Usually, the 10-year treasury should have a higher yield than the 2-year treasury...

19:54

SpyMasterTrades

This video is the first of a series of videos that I hope to post on how to build wealth. Of note, in this video, I imply that Tesla's stock grows at an equal rate to the rate at which the money supply expands. Although this has generally been true over the past couple of years, over the longer term, Tesla's stock (TSLA) price has grown faster than the rate at...

11:58

SpyMasterTrades Updated 

Hi everyone! 👋 Here’s my video reply to one of the questions asked in my prior video. I wanted to reply to everyone who asked questions, but my video ran way too long. TradingView has a time limit for videos. In this video, I answer the question that @Alt-B asked: How much of the coming recession has the market already priced in? I also show the Mortgage...

18:14

SpyMasterTrades

Hi everyone! 👋 This is my first ever video on TradingView . In this video, I explain how a deep dive into the continuing U.S. jobless claims (USCJC) could reveal that a recession is actually already underway. Later in the video, I explain my thoughts about the future direction of the market and why I believe we're entering into a period of stagflation ....

SpyMasterTrades Updated 

The chart above provides two bottom projections for the price of Bitcoin. These projections are based on what is called the cycle low multiple . This is a screenshot of the Bitcoin Cycle Low Multiple chart The cycle low multiple for Bitcoin is currently 2. This means that if prior cycle price action is predictive of future cycle price action, Bitcoin's...

SpyMasterTrades Updated 

This is a weekly chart of Apple (AAPL) as measured relative to the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). The chart has been arbitrarily adjusted in magnitude (x1000) to improve visibility of price movement. One should always analyze an asset's performance relative to the performance of the broader index before choosing to invest. If an asset is underperforming the broader index,...

SpyMasterTrades

The chart above shows the price history of Bitcoin since its genesis Fibonacci spiral. Throughout this post, I will refer to the concept of a Fibonacci spiral . To put it simply, in the context of a price chart, I conceptualize log-scale bull flags as Fibonacci spirals (though both bull and bear flags, as well as pennants, can be conceptualized as Fibonacci...

SpyMasterTrades Updated 

This is a 2-month chart (each candle represents a 2-month period) of Plug Power (PLUG). For those who are not already familiar, PLUG is an alternative energy company that develops and manufactures hydrogen fuel cell systems. I recently added PLUG to my portfolio as a long-term investment. In my opinion, it has one of the best long-term charts of any stock right...

SpyMasterTrades Updated 

This is a daily chart of the relative performance between the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Analyzing this trend in relative performance can help us determine the strength of technology stocks relative to the broader market. Today, for the first time since 2021, the QQQ/SPY daily candle closed above the Ichimoku Cloud. The Ichimoku Cloud is one...

SpyMasterTrades

Semiconductor company Micron Technology (MU) just announced it will cut 10% of its workforce in 2023 as it braces for revenue to drop more than 50%. Micron's revenue is not the only thing at risk of dropping next year though -- its stock price could be starting what may ultimately end up being a years-long descent. The above yearly chart (also reproduced below)...

SpyMasterTrades

Wishing everyone Happy Holidays! 🎄🕎 I hope you enjoy my chartwork (the Christmas tree is brought to you by the shooting star 🌟 pattern on Carvana's quarterly chart). As I reflect on this challenging past year, I thought I would post a few of the lessons I have learned trading and investing over the years. Trading Always manage risk by using a stop loss....