MrRenev

MrRenev

Hey. I recently wrote "Where to target and what to do once there?". I am now looking at targets again, but not the "target" target. The "targets" that are in the way. I call them resistances, regardless of them being above or below, since they resist me making money, they resist my position, the price going further. We want to make money, so we improve on every...

MrRenev

A UK bank chief analyst said "investors really want stocks to go up but reality is setting in" (or something similar). There are no good news, only bad news. Everything is terrible in the world and in the USA. Inflation, supply line issues, China and China housing with not just Evergrande, US border slaver and druglord warzone crisis, Afghanistan failure(s),...

MrRenev Updated 

Hello, I see copper is in a bear market and a leg down could happen. Not going to provide a full in depth analysis. Here is a quick overview of this industrial commodity. Here is the 30Y chart compared to gold you should notice a few things: Copper could drop to 3.5-3.85. 3.85 is an extension of 1, 3.5 or 1.618. Those extensions are really very common. Gold...

MrRenev

I've been bad. I've been greedy with having "strong hands" when I had some 5 to 7R, really should have gotten out when it started retracing. How do I let it go from over 5R to -1? From March-April to September 2020 I got baited. There was oil, there were all the USD trends in summer, and they all went rather far. After this I wanted to keep running my winners, I...

MrRenev Updated 

See, people are not suddenly going to stop buying the USD because it's now a bit more obvious it is a ponzi scheme than before. It was already obvious before and they did not care and understand. It will slowly implode, with acceleration continuing (it started to accelerate in the early 2000s I think), now it is going about twice as fast as in the 2010s. Twice as...

MrRenev

My thoughts about performance. This kind of info is not very available so I have to do some guesswork. We that spend all day in front of the computer expect to get better returns than 10% a year. But we have no idea what is possible and where we "rank" compared to others. All academics look at ever is day traders, yes 99% of day traders lose money and 1% earn...

MrRenev Updated 

Most of the time growing an account is a very slow grind. Make some, lose some, hope to make a little bit more than you lose. For example, with an average risk to reward of 1 to 5, and a win ratio of 21% (not counting once a year outliers), which is pretty good, breakeven being at 16.67%, after 100 trades the result will be - with a risk of 1% (flat) each...

MrRenev

A little intro to the biotech cycle... It could be real big. RNA technology can do a little bit more than tell your genes to produce spike protein. It could be used to fight cancer. It could also be used to increase life expectancy from 75 years to perhaps 90. And more importantly, make people age slower as well as kill "deficient" cells involved in aging. This...

MrRenev

All sort of price movements have happened in the past, and all sort of price movements can happen now. I think the S&P recovers now. Sucker rally or scaring away weak hands before the big push, I don't know. Either way markets really got moving, should trend now, I hope. If the US starts a trade war with Europe well buy and hold stocks or indices probably won't be...

MrRenev Updated 

Investors are back from holiday, labor day is over, there is today some jewish holiday I do not know the impact but anyway the stock market will be open today, maybe a bit slower than it should because of that holiday. We'll see what happens, but unless something insane goes on I see no reason for this currency pair to suddenly go crazy. It has been in a boring...

MrRenev Updated 

> George Soros says Xi Jinping is ruining the economy and predicts investors in China are in for a rude awakening *********************** The billionaire said: "Xi Jinping’s crackdown on private enterprise has been a significant drag on the economy. International investors are in for a rude awakening.". He also said "I consider Xi Jinping the most dangerous...

MrRenev Updated 

Here is an update to my previous idea on entries. I kept rambling on and on so this was too big for an update. Since you can't possibly cover the entire subject even in an entire book, let's go with 2 examples live, not in hindsight. They might (probably maybe even) just fail. Maybe I'll start a new idea with more 3-4 new ones, so we can look at entry + getting...

MrRenev

With value investing everyone knows: Buy when there is blood in the street, when a good company has a P/E ratio of maybe under 10. But with currencies, other than the advice "50% to 61.8% fib" and a whole lot of troll "buy every bottom sell every top with the magic indicator or magic drawing on the chart" there is no common knowledge. We can look at this recent...

MrRenev Updated 

Both holding & not holding don't make sense. Definitions: - Holding = try to hit "homeruns" every time - Not holding = snatching profits at target (not before, that's just being a huge noob) Assume winners 5 times bigger than losers on average: 5R. And the winrate is of 20%. So that's a PF of 1.25, all good. To keep it simple there is no trailing until...

MrRenev

Here are some of the average profits and losses of the client of a Forex broker: From the 01/03/2014 to the 31/03/2015 FXCM accounts on the GBPJPY: - Average winner was 39 "pips" ("percentage in point" that are not percentages in points - Average loser was 64 "pips" In that period the GBPJPY ATR was: - On daily candles 140 "pips" - On 12 hour candles 90...

MrRenev Updated 

Professional investors came back from their vacation yesterday and they did sell as some speculated (allegedly because of the job numbers). I reduced my position size if the price retraces like it has kept doing (vertically) I'll joyfully reload lower, and I will use the profit to buy more than what I sold (with some profit to spare) ^^ I will mostly buy with...

MrRenev Updated 

Boomers love to say "Warren Buffett made most of his money when he was old". Sorry but no, not really. They are mostly coping. They had 60+ years to do something with their lives, bit late to wake up all of a sudden if you ask me. Was Warren Buffet lucky? Considering the era he lived in he was UNLUCKY. His best years were during the worst market period. The...

MrRenev Updated 

> FDA approves Pfizer vaccine (a great company, diversified, and with a PE ratio < half the S&P 500 one) *********************** Last week the US FDA approved the Pfizer vaccine, which will now be commercialized as Comirnaty. The price to earnings of Pfizer is 20, versus Moderna 50 and the S&P 500 average of 45. Pfizer is well diversified and was relatively...