Week Ahead-FOMC meeting, US payrolls to set direction

The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting and jobs report for April should set the tone for markets following a run of strong U.S. data and hawkish comments from Fed officials that spurred a dramatic swing in expectations since the March FOMC.

The Fed is widely expected to remain on hold on Wednesday. The market is now pricing a mere 10% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut at the June meeting versus a nearly 85% chance after the March meeting.

The accompanying statement and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference are expected to reiterate that the Fed remains data-dependent and sees no rush to ease policy . The bond market's reaction to the Fed's tone is likely to dictate moves in other asset classes.

Attention will then shift to Friday's U.S. jobs report. The market is expecting 210,000 non-farm payrolls to have been added to the economy, while unemployment is expected to remain at 3.8% and average hourly earning to rise 0.3% month-on-month again.

U.S. ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing, S&P Global final PMIs, consumer confidence, factory orders, international trade and ADP jobs are also due in a packed week for data.

The most significant data in Europe are flash euro zone April HICP and Q1 GDP; consumer confidence, unemployment and final manufacturing PMI are also due. German CPI and Q1 GDP will be watched, while the ECB calendar features mainly low-key events.

The UK has only final April PMIs and no significant Bank of England speeches scheduled.

Japan will release industrial production, employment and retail sales in a holiday-shortened week. The minutes of the March Bank of Japan meeting will be overshadowed by Friday's BOJ decision and press conference .

China's official April PMIs and Caixin manufacturing PMI will be in focus ahead of the May 1-3 Labour Day break.

Australia data includes March retail sales, building approvals and balance of trade. The only data of note from New Zealand will be Q1 employment and the labour cost index. Canada has monthly GDP, trade and manufacturing PMI.

For more click on