TraderBwater

TraderBwater

AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT CAPITALCOM:RTY small caps hit major resistance (the yellow zone) and finished the day with a shooting star candle. More downside is needed. This syncs with other indices NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY

TraderBwater

Don't be fooled by the 4.6% gain on Mar 28 (last trading day of March). Unless it is followed by another day of further upside, I believe that it would need to go down more to finish the WXY correction. The same pattern with the IWM and other small caps.

TraderBwater Updated 

CELH gapped up today and is close to a short-term top to correct the rally from January 2024. It can go a bit higher max up to 108.22. The gap up in the last wave could be an exhaustive gap. With RSI divergence in this final wave, we could be near the top. Watch it closely in 30-min time frame and if it breaks below today's low, it's a sign that the top is in.

TraderBwater

Crude Oil NYSE:CL and energy stocks can expect a drop now below the December 2023 lows to get the final leg down to finish the year-long correction since 2022. This is confirmed by NYSE:XOM in the monthly chart which shows that the long-term correction is not yet done.

TraderBwater

Gold and gold miners are at a critical point where they have either topped or are near the top. At this quarterly chart, Gold made a higher high while GDX (which is weaker than Gold) made a lower high. The higher high (false breakout) in Gold registered lower RSI momentum on the quarterly chart (with 1 more week to finish this candle) showing it is most likely...

TraderBwater

Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD , AMEX:GLD ) in its quarterly chart clearly shows that the upswing seriously lack momentum and is most likely followed by a drop. This is coupled with a bullish US dollar ( TVC:DXY ) as seen in the monthly probably to retrace to the 0.618 area of the previous drop.

TraderBwater

NASDAQ:AMD is due for a bounce to around 200 before dropping further. Same with other tech and semiconductors. Sell-off could begin on Friday. NASDAQ:SMCI NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY

TraderBwater Updated 

The bullish sequence in NVDA is incomplete. It needs one more new high. Compared with other tech/semi-conductors like AMD and SMCI which have already broken down, it is possible that NVDA would be the last giant standing making a new ATH while the others made a lower high before everyone rolls over.

TraderBwater

Here's a comparison of the right and wrong Elliott wave count with the help of RSI.

TraderBwater

The top is in. But short-term: there should be one more bounce to trap shorts and finish the x wave before a strong fall on Wednesday/FOMC. Short traders should wait for Wednesday.

TraderBwater

Copper is breaking out of a multi-year long cup-and-handle consolidation in daily time frame, as Gold first broke out. In the monthly time frame, Copper can be seen accumulating, steadily holding above all the moving averages. Once it breaks out of previous pivot, it would accelerate. Huge momentum in the next couple of years. Long-term investment opportunity.

TraderBwater

XLF has been up on the weekly without any major pullback since October, 2023. Now the rally has reached major resistance from previous ATH and with a series of 3 bearish divergence in RSI, the 5-wave rally from the October lows has either topped or is near a top. The rally is also getting less steep falling under the trend line. The next big move is likely to...

TraderBwater

Now that SPX has made a lower low today, we have another confirmation that the rally from October has been completed. It was an extended 5th wave, as noted with the 3rd wave having the highest RSI reading, followed by a sucession of 4 bearish divergences in RSI.

TraderBwater

ADBE gapped down 14% today below the 200MA. Such a huge drop has confirmed that it is correcting the whole rally from Sept 2022. Expect a bounce and further downside into the 0.5 to 0.618 retracement of this rally in the monthly timeframe. In the daily timeframe, it would coincide with the zone between 420-450 I expect in April. Short-term bearish until...

TraderBwater

QQQ made a lower low and has already lost the 21 moving averages in 3 waves. Next Monday and Tuesday it may bounce before another sell-off, probably triggered by FOMC's decision on Wednesday. To me, it is not worth trading QQQ these few days with lots of chop. The volume has been light the last few days. It's better to move to a trending instrument like Gold...

TraderBwater Updated 

wave 2 correction seems finished and is about to rally soon, if not tomorrow NASDAQ:ARM

TraderBwater

Momentum is extremely strong that has already broken above previous high in RSI. It will make an all time high. Seasonality also favors energy into June. Meanwhile, DXY is beginning its wave 3, which will make energy and metals fly.

TraderBwater

The idea that ARM was doing a bull flag is now invalidated after the Feb 20 low pivot in RSI has been taken in the last drop. Expect a bounce and then more downside.