VictorCobra

VictorCobra Updated 

On May 27th, 2022, I wrote about why I thought it was possible Bitcoin would never outperform the stock market again on bigger timeframes. Here is the original post: Since my last analysis, Bitcoin has so far failed to reclaim the local uptrend and develop any support above the previous all-time high, around $19800. You can see the current daily chart zoomed in...

VictorCobra

Well, here we are. After months of frustrating action for traders, Bitcoin has finally given a sizable move. Not too long ago, I had just begun to see the possibility of a bigger relief rally for the largest cryptocurrency. This was due to some technical developments, coupled with the lack of bad news in the crypto market. Granted, I had no intention of purchasing...

VictorCobra

This is just a thought here - although this appears to be a never-ending downtrend, I wonder if this on-balance volume divergence signals something. This shows that buyers are willing to step in here a bit more aggressively than the previous "bottom," as shown by higher OBV despite lower prices - even though OBV has declined overall since its peak. We're also...

VictorCobra

As I've finally started working full time again, I'm trying to develop an investing strategy that works for me moving forward. Because I've been fairly good with my own trades and finances over the last several years I decided to continue managing my own portfolio for now. Currently, here is my strategy for investing in companies. It's really just a 3-step...

VictorCobra Updated 

Or is the market about to collapse further? Is there even enough liquidity to begin a bullish trend? On the lefthand chart, you can see that since the lows of September 22nd, 2022, Bitcoin has been making higher lows. In doing so, an uptrend line can be drawn (light blue). This uptrend can also appear to some traders as an ascending triangle with a resistance...

VictorCobra Updated 

This article aims to address a question that seems to be burning at the back of many investors’ minds: Can the crowd be right? How can we enter a recession or depression when everyone seems to be thinking about it? But first, I’ll give a bit of background and some of my opinions on the current fundamentals of the cryptocurrency market, and why these opinions are...

VictorCobra

Despite guessing the trajectory for Ethereum over the last few weeks quite successfully, my trading profits have been "okay," but not up to par with what I would accept as "worthwhile." I even opened a short two days ago at support but got stopped out, instead of following my plan and opening a long. Why is that? You can see my trades, in addition to my reasoning...

VictorCobra Updated 

For a change, here is a post that isn't macro-focused. This is me simply trying to speculate about what path ETH will take leading up to the merge, as a bit of a follow-up to my last post. These scenarios assume it will be a "sell the news" event, but one involves a push higher, the others do not. As I noted in my last analysis, Ethereum is really hard to...

VictorCobra Updated 

Just a quick update on one of the alts I've been following this year. I ALMOST accumulated some for a swing trade near the $7-9 levels. Here is the post from June, where I considered doing this. Back in February, I speculated ATOM could drop all the way to $8, breaking the long term uptrend. Here is the post, when price was still near $30. Since June, ATOM has...

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VictorCobra

My first video update in a while! Here I discuss recent Bitcoin and Ethereum price action, as well as my current trades. I hope you enjoy! Please remember this is meant for entertainment and speculation only - not as financial advice. -Victor Cobra

VictorCobra Updated 

I'm back after a couple weeks of studying for my master's exam (which I passed!). I am officially almost a licensed social worker. Now, how that qualifies me to write about financial markets, I have no idea. Though, I certainly think they are related, as much of our social and system issues stem from poor economic policy and rampant exploitation in markets. In...

VictorCobra Updated 

This is just a quick follow-up post to my short idea on Tronix from May. Here is the original post. I ultimately got stopped out of the first trade and failed to catch the nearly 50% drop. Despite dropping below the uptrend, TRX rebounded much better than the rest of the crypto market, and remains one of the only coins still above its bull market support. It's...

VictorCobra Updated 

Here it is - we finally get a bit of a relief bounce! All my bearish sentiment and opinions aside, I've been speculating about a relief rally for weeks, and even toyed with some altcoin trading positions. As I've also mentioned, the market needs an incredibly powerful upswing to reverse the broken long term trends. Otherwise, those longer-term moving averages risk...

VictorCobra Updated 

You may have come across the phrase: "Climbing a wall of worry." This describes the phenomenon whereby the market continues higher and higher, despite overwhelming evidence that it shouldn't be climbing at all. Take a look at the stock market during the pandemic. Imagine climbing up a looming wall, worried that you'll fall off any moment because the wall looks...

VictorCobra Updated 

This is a quick post. A month ago I wrote about the potential long term top for Ethereum's ratio against Bitcoin, comparing it with the distribution seen on the XLM/BTC pair in 2018. Since the post, the ratio has declined over 20%, while ETH/USD has tested Summer 2021 lows ($1700). Today, ETH/BTC bounced off the 200 MA on the 3 day chart (teal). Once below,...

VictorCobra Updated 

The title is pretty self-explanatory. Sure, prices can keep collapsing into the abyss. I have little enough exposure where this wouldn't hurt me a huge amount. It's important for me to be very conservative. There is nothing that says we need to recover here. Many alts are back to their accumulation ranges from the previous bear market, so it seams reasonable...

VictorCobra Updated 

Back in February, I wrote about why I thought ATOM could be headed back to $8. Since then, price declined by roughly 75% into a level where I've considered picking up some. Here is the original analysis: Here is my more recent post from May, showing why I speculated that alts would get completely annihilated. I'll admit, I did a bit of gloating. Getting out when...

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VictorCobra Updated 

Decided to record a new video. Ultimately I want to try out Youtube, though I'm also just happy posting on this platform. The 20 minute limit is a little difficult, so this often warrants a part 2. In this video, I discuss recent market movements and describe a couple of medium-term possibilities. I go a little bit into why I am not particularly bullish longer...