Bitcoin - Get Rich Quick or Die Broke Trying
As Bitcoin pushes into the mid 50k area, I get question after question on what to invest into, should I buy Bitcoin now, what coin or stock is going to be the next 10 bagger, is Doge coin a good investment, all from those trying to get rich quick. Let me be painfully honest, most are going to die broke trying!
We are now rolling into tax refund time, another round of stimulus checks, and this is all at a time when we hear of people making multi baggers in the stock and crypto markets. To think the rally is over is probably futile. This fresh round of cash is likely to push equities higher with those looking to score big and fast, but this is playing into the hands of the elite.
This new found money is likely not going into quality stocks like an Abbvie or Apple, but high risk trades. Participants with little experience going all in when the markets are in pure FOMO mode with more froth than my morning cappuccino. For most this is going to be a reality check on the difference between investing and buying a lotto ticket.
Those that have followed me for years know I preach of the long game, buy when markets are out of favor, trim out and build up some capital during periods of greed. I was very clear, my game plan was a 3-5-10 year one, not a get rich next week. Many don't like that, they want instant gratification, chasing the lotto dream only to end up broke thinking the world is stacked against them. No it is not, you are your own worst enemy! More on this in a few, but if you are younger, the long game works.
So after 4 years of being in the crypto market, sitting through a 2 year bearish correction where I continued to add to my position, how did that long game plan work out? Personally I removed more than double my initial investment at this point, and still have 70% of my position left. In short, I'm up 100% in my investment capital and the remaining 70% of my Bitcoin position is free!!! That's right I was paid double by the market to own the coins I still have.
Yet few had the patience to follow this simple but highly successful plan, they want to get rich quick!
So with many corporations allocating some of their treasuries to Bitcoin, a new round of fresh money entering the market over the next month, the possibility of Bitcoin hitting 100k from here is real, but its not that simple.
Technicals:
From an Elliott Wave cycle perspective, we are likely in the 5th wave of a broader wave 3 but the market does not care about wave counts. They are useful to provide some perspective into the market but trading on Wave counts alone, can lead to missing some gains here.
Currently I have a broad target area of 56k-85k for the completion of this cycle based on Fibb extensions before we get a broader sell potentially as high as 125k. As more and more money flows into the market, the thinking is we simply keep going higher
Regardless of whether we push 65k or 125k markets eventually pullback. Currently the support range is from 30-40k, this is where I am a buyer for a position and or swing trade. Just because I pulled my initial risk capital and some out, does not imply I am done adding to my position.
I am using that capital for swing and position trading and leaving the profits from any trade in Bitcoin slowly adding to my position. In short I am trading around my position slowly increasing my free inventory with more free inventory.
Because I am using a swing trading strategy moving forward (position trade if we get a pullback into the 30-40k area) pre-determined stop loss levels protects my capital. I simply do not want to give back any of my capital, so to minimize any potential losses, stops are used. Lose 1% here or there, is not a capital killer, to lose 20-30% is.
In short, currently I am a buyer between the range of 30-40k for the next swing into the 100k area. In the near term I will look for swing trades and also continue to add daily with my DCA strategy up to 60k. Above 60k I will stop adding to my DCA strategy as pre-determined. What about the short term?
In the near term we have a relatively clear wave count, though shorter term time frames are not as accurate, where we are likely in wave (v) of wave 5. The 48,500 was a breakout level and a trade we are currently in with T1 being hit and T3 in the mid 60k area. Again profits from this trade I am using to add to my inventory, after all it is free.
So risk here is still to the downside, but clearly momentum is picking up not slowing down so I am open to taking another trade if the R:R makes sense here especially with T1 hit in our current trade.
Lets take a look at some proportional measures that also provide insight as to some potential target levels.
Often fractal cycles are proportional to one another and can provide additional means to measure for targets. Note the prior fractal bullish impulse swings were between 100-160% off the low of the prior cycle.
Using these as a guide, they clearly overlap within our Fibb range between 56-80k, so this is a reasonable are to see an interim top and pullback even if so minor. Lets zoom out to the broader picture.
Adding the time element to the picture the prior bullish run lasted about 8 month, currently we are completing month 5 and are pushing into the 2.618-4.238 extension of the prior bullish move from 2015 to 2017.
Markets tend to revert back to the mean trend, and though they do not have to, very feasible to see 80-100k to trade before a broader consolidation and pullback into the 30-40k area. Sounds like an impossible feat, but how many thought 3500 was going to trade after hitting 19k in 2017?
Of course there are some variables, wide spread adoption by not only more personal investors, but larger companies and intuitions as well, allocating a portion of their treasuries to Bitcoin and other digital assets. Regardless bull markets are followed by periods of consolidation or interim bear markets no matter how good it looks.
Right now I am looking at a potential swing to 250k over the next 3-5 years, maybe it happens sooner, maybe it is later, but I want to position myself for the broader move.
The Long Game:
Few market participants focus on the long term. Though they may mention it in there articles, one day they are bullish, the next bearish, one day they are all in, the next they are all out. These FURUS have no clue how to make money, they only provide entertainment for those that get excited on every post.
The long game is not as exciting, it is most often very boring, but it is the path to getting rich over time. Those trying to time every market move often find themselves no better off now then they were 5 years ago, often worse. The Get Rich Quick mentality is the path of least resistance to Die Broke Trying. The long term approach is so simple, yet few take this path.
Put it Away and Forget About It
Over the past couple months I have been inundated with those having no market experience looking to throw their capital into various markets, from cryptos to stocks. They ask "hey what should I buy with my $2000"? However they don't like the answer I provide, so they listen to some Furu and buy a lottery ticket.
In 2016 I started a DRIP account with John Deere (DE). I simply put $150 a month into this account and I forget about it. Didn't care what the market was doing, don't care about the cycles of hope and despair, I consistently have put money every month like clockwork.
At first it did not seem like I was making any progress, after all when I would get my statement it would show a share here and a share there added to my account. Nearly 5 years later, that investment of about $9500 is now worth nearly 24k. Didn't happen overnight, those initial statements were like "wow I own 10 shares now", but I did not get distracted from the long game.
For those that are wanting to make real money, and retire with a nice nest egg, forget about chasing champagne dreams and caviar dinners, focus on investing on a consistent basis into equities that have long term growth.
My business partner Joe told me about a $150 he received during high school graduation and someone from his church asked, "what are you going to do with the money? Why don't you buy some Apple Stock?" At that time Joe figured what is $150 going to do? Well today that $150 would be worth over $102,000. Had he continued to add $100 a month, the value of stock owned today would be worth in excess of 13million and he is only 41 years old.
Sure Apple is an exception, but take a blue chip like JNJ doing the same. That same strategy would have returned 280k. Had you started in Feb of 2018 putting $50 a week into Bitcoin your total investment would be $7850 and the value of your account would be 52k.
So for those that are younger and even middle age, VERY few outperform long term investment strategies though the furus will tell you differently. Sure we hear of the guy that made 500k on Gamestop, the Bitcoin Millionaires that were in at $10, but those are simply lottery ticket winners.
The easiest path to riches is to continually invest on a monthly basis. So when you get that IRS return and stimulus check, instead of buying lotto tickets, pick a couple assets to start, Bitcoin maybe a 3M or ABBV which have great Dividends, and throw $500 into each, and continue to add to those positions every month, whatever you can afford.
Are you going to get Rich Quick? NO, but your also not going to die broke trying.
We are now rolling into tax refund time, another round of stimulus checks, and this is all at a time when we hear of people making multi baggers in the stock and crypto markets. To think the rally is over is probably futile. This fresh round of cash is likely to push equities higher with those looking to score big and fast, but this is playing into the hands of the elite.
This new found money is likely not going into quality stocks like an Abbvie or Apple, but high risk trades. Participants with little experience going all in when the markets are in pure FOMO mode with more froth than my morning cappuccino. For most this is going to be a reality check on the difference between investing and buying a lotto ticket.
Those that have followed me for years know I preach of the long game, buy when markets are out of favor, trim out and build up some capital during periods of greed. I was very clear, my game plan was a 3-5-10 year one, not a get rich next week. Many don't like that, they want instant gratification, chasing the lotto dream only to end up broke thinking the world is stacked against them. No it is not, you are your own worst enemy! More on this in a few, but if you are younger, the long game works.
So after 4 years of being in the crypto market, sitting through a 2 year bearish correction where I continued to add to my position, how did that long game plan work out? Personally I removed more than double my initial investment at this point, and still have 70% of my position left. In short, I'm up 100% in my investment capital and the remaining 70% of my Bitcoin position is free!!! That's right I was paid double by the market to own the coins I still have.
Yet few had the patience to follow this simple but highly successful plan, they want to get rich quick!
So with many corporations allocating some of their treasuries to Bitcoin, a new round of fresh money entering the market over the next month, the possibility of Bitcoin hitting 100k from here is real, but its not that simple.
Technicals:
From an Elliott Wave cycle perspective, we are likely in the 5th wave of a broader wave 3 but the market does not care about wave counts. They are useful to provide some perspective into the market but trading on Wave counts alone, can lead to missing some gains here.
Currently I have a broad target area of 56k-85k for the completion of this cycle based on Fibb extensions before we get a broader sell potentially as high as 125k. As more and more money flows into the market, the thinking is we simply keep going higher
Regardless of whether we push 65k or 125k markets eventually pullback. Currently the support range is from 30-40k, this is where I am a buyer for a position and or swing trade. Just because I pulled my initial risk capital and some out, does not imply I am done adding to my position.
I am using that capital for swing and position trading and leaving the profits from any trade in Bitcoin slowly adding to my position. In short I am trading around my position slowly increasing my free inventory with more free inventory.
Because I am using a swing trading strategy moving forward (position trade if we get a pullback into the 30-40k area) pre-determined stop loss levels protects my capital. I simply do not want to give back any of my capital, so to minimize any potential losses, stops are used. Lose 1% here or there, is not a capital killer, to lose 20-30% is.
In short, currently I am a buyer between the range of 30-40k for the next swing into the 100k area. In the near term I will look for swing trades and also continue to add daily with my DCA strategy up to 60k. Above 60k I will stop adding to my DCA strategy as pre-determined. What about the short term?
In the near term we have a relatively clear wave count, though shorter term time frames are not as accurate, where we are likely in wave (v) of wave 5. The 48,500 was a breakout level and a trade we are currently in with T1 being hit and T3 in the mid 60k area. Again profits from this trade I am using to add to my inventory, after all it is free.
So risk here is still to the downside, but clearly momentum is picking up not slowing down so I am open to taking another trade if the R:R makes sense here especially with T1 hit in our current trade.
Lets take a look at some proportional measures that also provide insight as to some potential target levels.
Often fractal cycles are proportional to one another and can provide additional means to measure for targets. Note the prior fractal bullish impulse swings were between 100-160% off the low of the prior cycle.
Using these as a guide, they clearly overlap within our Fibb range between 56-80k, so this is a reasonable are to see an interim top and pullback even if so minor. Lets zoom out to the broader picture.
Adding the time element to the picture the prior bullish run lasted about 8 month, currently we are completing month 5 and are pushing into the 2.618-4.238 extension of the prior bullish move from 2015 to 2017.
Markets tend to revert back to the mean trend, and though they do not have to, very feasible to see 80-100k to trade before a broader consolidation and pullback into the 30-40k area. Sounds like an impossible feat, but how many thought 3500 was going to trade after hitting 19k in 2017?
Of course there are some variables, wide spread adoption by not only more personal investors, but larger companies and intuitions as well, allocating a portion of their treasuries to Bitcoin and other digital assets. Regardless bull markets are followed by periods of consolidation or interim bear markets no matter how good it looks.
Right now I am looking at a potential swing to 250k over the next 3-5 years, maybe it happens sooner, maybe it is later, but I want to position myself for the broader move.
The Long Game:
Few market participants focus on the long term. Though they may mention it in there articles, one day they are bullish, the next bearish, one day they are all in, the next they are all out. These FURUS have no clue how to make money, they only provide entertainment for those that get excited on every post.
The long game is not as exciting, it is most often very boring, but it is the path to getting rich over time. Those trying to time every market move often find themselves no better off now then they were 5 years ago, often worse. The Get Rich Quick mentality is the path of least resistance to Die Broke Trying. The long term approach is so simple, yet few take this path.
Put it Away and Forget About It
Over the past couple months I have been inundated with those having no market experience looking to throw their capital into various markets, from cryptos to stocks. They ask "hey what should I buy with my $2000"? However they don't like the answer I provide, so they listen to some Furu and buy a lottery ticket.
In 2016 I started a DRIP account with John Deere (DE). I simply put $150 a month into this account and I forget about it. Didn't care what the market was doing, don't care about the cycles of hope and despair, I consistently have put money every month like clockwork.
At first it did not seem like I was making any progress, after all when I would get my statement it would show a share here and a share there added to my account. Nearly 5 years later, that investment of about $9500 is now worth nearly 24k. Didn't happen overnight, those initial statements were like "wow I own 10 shares now", but I did not get distracted from the long game.
For those that are wanting to make real money, and retire with a nice nest egg, forget about chasing champagne dreams and caviar dinners, focus on investing on a consistent basis into equities that have long term growth.
My business partner Joe told me about a $150 he received during high school graduation and someone from his church asked, "what are you going to do with the money? Why don't you buy some Apple Stock?" At that time Joe figured what is $150 going to do? Well today that $150 would be worth over $102,000. Had he continued to add $100 a month, the value of stock owned today would be worth in excess of 13million and he is only 41 years old.
Sure Apple is an exception, but take a blue chip like JNJ doing the same. That same strategy would have returned 280k. Had you started in Feb of 2018 putting $50 a week into Bitcoin your total investment would be $7850 and the value of your account would be 52k.
So for those that are younger and even middle age, VERY few outperform long term investment strategies though the furus will tell you differently. Sure we hear of the guy that made 500k on Gamestop, the Bitcoin Millionaires that were in at $10, but those are simply lottery ticket winners.
The easiest path to riches is to continually invest on a monthly basis. So when you get that IRS return and stimulus check, instead of buying lotto tickets, pick a couple assets to start, Bitcoin maybe a 3M or ABBV which have great Dividends, and throw $500 into each, and continue to add to those positions every month, whatever you can afford.
Are you going to get Rich Quick? NO, but your also not going to die broke trying.
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