Bitcoin outlook in the year 2023 (Weekly)
Updated
The past few weeks have confirmed the channel trend Bitcoin is trading in. It is clearly outlined on the chart (grey channel).
We may get a bounce inside the channel where the area of support (whether weak or strong) is clearly marked as the grey bar. The lack of any bounce here would be a bad sign in the shorterm (weeks-months) for Bitcoin & presumably we could expect it to test the bottom of the trading channel.
Do you think BTC will enter the strong bounce area as identified on my chart?
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The previous, bullish, run to start 2023 was healthy. It appeared that there was lots of buying at the increased price levels (yellow-orange circle).
Allow me to speculate... BTC surging 40% caused many owners to take profits or cut losses. Was this the goal?
That is, was there an attempt to take people out of the market? Perhaps I have much cash to work with and expect BTC to go to/near/past previous highs at some point. It would thus be beneficial buy BTC at any level below the expected goal. The 40% surge got people selling, but some were buying & confidently it seemed.
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This will be very interesting to see playout. I do believe I covered all the possibilities, so use this chart as a reference, but not financial advice.
The only scenario not directly portrayed on the chart is a break (to the upside) out of the channel in the next 3-4 weeks--- Right where the green arrow touches the channel top. If this turned out to be the case we could expect the top of the channel to become the new support line with the white line around 26,000 USD being the new resistance. There is no such thing as precise resistances such as 26,580 USD for example, so when I say around 26,000 USD, I mean around. Got it?
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My final thoughts... I was skeptical of the run in January 2023 being genuine as BTC had only gone as low as 15-16,000 USD. Before every major bull run for Bitcoin we have seen it revisit lower levels. This may be where the big money comes in ($10,000-$12,000 in this cycle is possible). Plus, there is still plenty of drama to come as far as crypto regulations, supposed Binance scrutiny, and the FTX debacle.
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Disclaimer (not financial advice): I lean towards the side of BTC revisiting its highs (or passing) at least once more in its lifetime. It's dramatic-> , it's hopeless->, it's bought quietly by big money ->, it's hyped, -> it's new highs. Most times the little guys get screwed so be careful.
We may get a bounce inside the channel where the area of support (whether weak or strong) is clearly marked as the grey bar. The lack of any bounce here would be a bad sign in the shorterm (weeks-months) for Bitcoin & presumably we could expect it to test the bottom of the trading channel.
Do you think BTC will enter the strong bounce area as identified on my chart?
------------
The previous, bullish, run to start 2023 was healthy. It appeared that there was lots of buying at the increased price levels (yellow-orange circle).
Allow me to speculate... BTC surging 40% caused many owners to take profits or cut losses. Was this the goal?
That is, was there an attempt to take people out of the market? Perhaps I have much cash to work with and expect BTC to go to/near/past previous highs at some point. It would thus be beneficial buy BTC at any level below the expected goal. The 40% surge got people selling, but some were buying & confidently it seemed.
------------
This will be very interesting to see playout. I do believe I covered all the possibilities, so use this chart as a reference, but not financial advice.
The only scenario not directly portrayed on the chart is a break (to the upside) out of the channel in the next 3-4 weeks--- Right where the green arrow touches the channel top. If this turned out to be the case we could expect the top of the channel to become the new support line with the white line around 26,000 USD being the new resistance. There is no such thing as precise resistances such as 26,580 USD for example, so when I say around 26,000 USD, I mean around. Got it?
-----------
My final thoughts... I was skeptical of the run in January 2023 being genuine as BTC had only gone as low as 15-16,000 USD. Before every major bull run for Bitcoin we have seen it revisit lower levels. This may be where the big money comes in ($10,000-$12,000 in this cycle is possible). Plus, there is still plenty of drama to come as far as crypto regulations, supposed Binance scrutiny, and the FTX debacle.
----------
Disclaimer (not financial advice): I lean towards the side of BTC revisiting its highs (or passing) at least once more in its lifetime. It's dramatic-> , it's hopeless->, it's bought quietly by big money ->, it's hyped, -> it's new highs. Most times the little guys get screwed so be careful.
Comment
Well. If you still lend any credibility to this idea, then the chart would say--- the odds of BTC going to the "strong bounce region" before revisiting new highs just diminished greatly. What the chart did get right---
(i) Rejection more likely (we first were rejected at the top of the channel)
(ii) ?
The candle for the week of March 6th 2023 was screaming towards higher prices. It's one of the few candles that is a good predictor of what's coming next. In fact, it's the only candle I can think of that is worth seeing what it means for the next candle.
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