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Today, on April 23rd, as I observe Bitcoin, I note the three previous peaks reaching their highs at around $73,800 to $72,000, forming an upward range. However, this range hasn't concluded but rather consolidated, much like it did around $50,000, but this time for a longer period, about 55 days from today. The price consensus within this range falls between $65,000 and $80,000, with the $64,000 range also proving significant.
In this scenario, Bitcoin seems to be forming a Rising Wedge, indicating a potential false upward breakout, possibly pressuring shorts and closing gaps near the upper range before retracing. Given the nature of this range, analyses such as order block or FVG aren't necessary. It's crucial to consider the entire historical context to understand why the price is confined within this range.
This range significantly influences the entire cryptocurrency market, often leading to a sharp decline in low-market-cap coins, followed by a subsequent appreciation. Therefore, it's essential to keep a close eye on this range.
I've meticulously mapped out the price and identified an essential Fibonacci zone at $64,700, suggesting that we'll likely remain within this range for some time.
In terms of Elliott Waves, this period could be considered the second wave, as long as we don't breach the lower range line. While we're within this price range, it's possible to trade it by buying when it hits the bottom and selling when it reaches the top.
This strategy has been discussed previously in the GF1 group, and I've even humorously suggested in a TradeView post to "buy if God provides an opportunity," indicating an attractive buying price.
This analysis requires constant updates and monitoring of indicators to understand its evolution. It's crucial to note that while we're within this range, we can only determine something once we've confirmed a breakout. Previous breakout attempts have proven false, resulting in corrections of at least 8% to 16%.
Therefore, it's essential to trade cautiously within the range, whether buying at the bottoms or at the best possible price and selling at the top. Late entries should be managed with technically placed stop-loss orders to mitigate risks.
Regarding Elliott Waves, they're essentially a theory that suggests financial markets move in repetitive patterns or waves. In a simplified manner, think of it as the market dancing to a rhythm, with waves of buying and selling movements. However, it's important to note that Elliott Waves should only be considered valid when combined with our indicators and oscillators.