#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 05.05 - 05.10
Updated
Last Week :
Last week we opened up around the Mean of 5182.50 - 5115.75 Value. Consolidated around the Mean, built up supply and eventually started moving for the Spike Base, lower Edge and lower ranges VAH to fill those areas out but every time we hit VAH we found a bid there which would hold us over and that would bring in new buying to keep pushing us back towards 5125 - 15.75 VAL. We got good trading back and forth between the Bid and Supply but eventually end of the week once market found no acceptance in lower Value and couldn't stay under the Edge low shorts had to cover driving the price back into previous Value for the Supply which was at and above the Mean.
This Week :
Few things to note this week, with how strong the Pre Market push was on Friday which drove us over 5125 - 15.75 VAL right into next Key Resistance of 5159.25 - 54.25 we were not able to right away get over or hold over this area in RTH, the end of day push through that area was also weak and left 1 single above us and that is not counting the other sets of singles which are higher so this tells us there is still Supply around this VAH and above Value areas.
Of course this doesn't mean we will just sell off from this area but it is something to note if we think market will just continue higher through VAH towards above Edge as this push over 5159.25 - 54.25 can fail and come back in once the distribution over it is finished and we run out of buying.
Going into this week we are now in 5204.25 - 5154.25 Range and from here we watch if we find acceptance here and get more buying which will push us to and through VAH for a chance to head for above Edge ? Do we start building a base here under VAH cleaning out Supply above it and then take it up for distribution over it ? Or do we run out of buying and come back in under 5159.25 - 54.25 to start back filling this move towards VAL to fill out that push from Friday with Supply. Will more size longs step in here to keep buying to push the market higher or will size be waiting to see how this area plays out as we know there could be size sellers here and longs like to buy under Value or after seeing areas get taken out and start holding.
To me Weekly TF had a weak close to end the week, Daily closed at the top of Daily Balance with a push just over it and Daily TF is still currently in a downtrend so to speak if we look at VWAP and smaller MA. This kind of hints on not finding acceptance here just yet or least if we do then above Edge still should keep us under the 5200s areas for now. We don't have much data or market moving events this week which hints on even if we don't find acceptance up here and will start a move back down it might not be as fast and strong as we have seen last weeks, it might be more of a leak/hold action back towards the VAL.
Levels to Watch :
Current Intraday Range 5204.25 - 5154.25
Key Resistance 5204.25 - 5199.75
Means 5188.25 - 84.50 // 5174.25 - 70.50 This is VAH and we would need to start holding between those to find acceptance in this range.
5159.25 - 54.25 Will this now be our Key Support or we find our way back under ?
If Accept back under 5159.25 - 54.25 we watch for move back towards VAL
Means 5144 - 40.25 // 5129 - 25
Key Support 5112.50 - 07.50 for any continuation under
If hold/accept over VAH would need to get through and accept over 5204.25 - 07.50 Edge bottom for any higher prices towards Edge top.
Last week we opened up around the Mean of 5182.50 - 5115.75 Value. Consolidated around the Mean, built up supply and eventually started moving for the Spike Base, lower Edge and lower ranges VAH to fill those areas out but every time we hit VAH we found a bid there which would hold us over and that would bring in new buying to keep pushing us back towards 5125 - 15.75 VAL. We got good trading back and forth between the Bid and Supply but eventually end of the week once market found no acceptance in lower Value and couldn't stay under the Edge low shorts had to cover driving the price back into previous Value for the Supply which was at and above the Mean.
This Week :
Few things to note this week, with how strong the Pre Market push was on Friday which drove us over 5125 - 15.75 VAL right into next Key Resistance of 5159.25 - 54.25 we were not able to right away get over or hold over this area in RTH, the end of day push through that area was also weak and left 1 single above us and that is not counting the other sets of singles which are higher so this tells us there is still Supply around this VAH and above Value areas.
Of course this doesn't mean we will just sell off from this area but it is something to note if we think market will just continue higher through VAH towards above Edge as this push over 5159.25 - 54.25 can fail and come back in once the distribution over it is finished and we run out of buying.
Going into this week we are now in 5204.25 - 5154.25 Range and from here we watch if we find acceptance here and get more buying which will push us to and through VAH for a chance to head for above Edge ? Do we start building a base here under VAH cleaning out Supply above it and then take it up for distribution over it ? Or do we run out of buying and come back in under 5159.25 - 54.25 to start back filling this move towards VAL to fill out that push from Friday with Supply. Will more size longs step in here to keep buying to push the market higher or will size be waiting to see how this area plays out as we know there could be size sellers here and longs like to buy under Value or after seeing areas get taken out and start holding.
To me Weekly TF had a weak close to end the week, Daily closed at the top of Daily Balance with a push just over it and Daily TF is still currently in a downtrend so to speak if we look at VWAP and smaller MA. This kind of hints on not finding acceptance here just yet or least if we do then above Edge still should keep us under the 5200s areas for now. We don't have much data or market moving events this week which hints on even if we don't find acceptance up here and will start a move back down it might not be as fast and strong as we have seen last weeks, it might be more of a leak/hold action back towards the VAL.
Levels to Watch :
Current Intraday Range 5204.25 - 5154.25
Key Resistance 5204.25 - 5199.75
Means 5188.25 - 84.50 // 5174.25 - 70.50 This is VAH and we would need to start holding between those to find acceptance in this range.
5159.25 - 54.25 Will this now be our Key Support or we find our way back under ?
If Accept back under 5159.25 - 54.25 we watch for move back towards VAL
Means 5144 - 40.25 // 5129 - 25
Key Support 5112.50 - 07.50 for any continuation under
If hold/accept over VAH would need to get through and accept over 5204.25 - 07.50 Edge bottom for any higher prices towards Edge top.
Comment
Market looked inside the Edge, build supply inside and Failed to Continue over. We are back in 5204.25 - 5154.25 Range and use its levels for trading. Holding under 5204 - 5199.75 will mean continued weakness and if we build up enough Supply we could still continuation through 88.25 - 84.50 back to VAH and possibly towards VAH low around 74.25 - 70.50 and maybe peak under ? that would be depending on how much volume we get BUT it could take some time to build up for it IF it happens as we already made a big move pre market from the Edge down which tells us we could do some balancing here above VAH until we will be ready to continue, Key is to stay patient and not get chopped up before the move is ready IF it happens. Another option is if we pull back to Key Resistance at 04.25 - 99.75 would be an area to watch for reversals unless we can accept back over 04.Comment
Over 04.25 - 99.75 we are in 5249.75 - 5199.75 range, levels for it Means 5219.75 - 15.75 and 5234.25 - 30.25 Which can attract price towards it, Key Resistance 5249.75 - 44.75
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