GBPMYR where heading in end 2023 and 2024?
Updated
The current price for GBPMYR is British pound and Malaysian Ringgit RM5.8511 per 1 British pound as of 8th December 2023.
There is only 23 days left in 2023 and the Pound will most likely fall to RM5.6946 level or near this level since the UK CPI reading in 2022 high at 11% has drop to 4.6% last month. The BOE has a hawkish pause in their last meeting, suggesting that a potential permanent pause in rate hikes soon in Q1 or Q2 2024. This strong tailwind has just started to happen and will affect the Pound value against Ringgit.
If BOE MPC meeting in December 14, 2023 is another hawkish pause then very likely that the exchange rate will go to RM5.6946 this year end. Any indication of a coming pause of rate hike from BOE will also cause the above to happen. Only will happen when Malaysia ringgit does not weaken and the Malaysian economy need to maintain the current cause.
If there is a pause confirm coming into 2024 BOE MPC meeting, then the exchange rate might drop to RM5.2532 with needing the Malaysian ringgit hold steady it's strength.
Another if, UK economy growth in a good manner most likely the exchange rate will not drop to RM5.2532. Might hover between RM5.92 to RM5.6946. Plus potential other confounding variables not research in this writing that could strengthen the Pound then RM5.2532 is quite not possible.
On the high side if the pound strengthen in 2023 which is not likely the case, if will go to RM5.9254. In 2024 if the pound strengthen the peak will most likely be at RM6.1042. Might or not might happen. Most likely not happening cause can't read or see the future.
There is only 23 days left in 2023 and the Pound will most likely fall to RM5.6946 level or near this level since the UK CPI reading in 2022 high at 11% has drop to 4.6% last month. The BOE has a hawkish pause in their last meeting, suggesting that a potential permanent pause in rate hikes soon in Q1 or Q2 2024. This strong tailwind has just started to happen and will affect the Pound value against Ringgit.
If BOE MPC meeting in December 14, 2023 is another hawkish pause then very likely that the exchange rate will go to RM5.6946 this year end. Any indication of a coming pause of rate hike from BOE will also cause the above to happen. Only will happen when Malaysia ringgit does not weaken and the Malaysian economy need to maintain the current cause.
If there is a pause confirm coming into 2024 BOE MPC meeting, then the exchange rate might drop to RM5.2532 with needing the Malaysian ringgit hold steady it's strength.
Another if, UK economy growth in a good manner most likely the exchange rate will not drop to RM5.2532. Might hover between RM5.92 to RM5.6946. Plus potential other confounding variables not research in this writing that could strengthen the Pound then RM5.2532 is quite not possible.
On the high side if the pound strengthen in 2023 which is not likely the case, if will go to RM5.9254. In 2024 if the pound strengthen the peak will most likely be at RM6.1042. Might or not might happen. Most likely not happening cause can't read or see the future.
Comment
RM5.6946 is the 4 hours support and RM5.2532 is the 1 day support level.Trade active
I got it wrong on the last post that the pound will fall further but instead when up higher this is due to the delay in rate cut by the BOE. Sending the Pound to RM6.0657 for 1 GBP. Near the suggested level of upside at RM 6.1042.Now the news of potential BOE rate hike pause comes into play and most likely GBP will fall to RM5.6946. To drop to this value the CPI and core CPI for the UK reading must be good news for another 3 to 4 months.
Currently keep ringgit over Pound if Malaysia ringgit hold at a steady pace.
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The Pound versus MYR. The pound has dropped the value due to the BOE rate cut recently. Last post previously as the level will fall to RM5.6946. Currently it is trading at RM5.641.
Accurate to 99.058% projection.
The drop from 6.0657 is also due to the potential rate cut from USA Fed's causing the ringgit to strengthen. The USA 10 years Treasury note have dropped many basic points causing fix income investors to buy Ringgit instead of foreign currency.
The coming 1 to 2 months' time, the Ringgit will continue to gain value as the BoE will be cutting rate again.
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The accuracy of the above projection will not be 99% after 2 months as there are potential anticipation rally of the ringgit against foreign currency. It will be less that 99% after 2 months.
The possible price for MYR and pound could be at RM5.0485 in the coming months. I am not accurate in the timing but there is a chance for the Ringgit to strengthen to RM 5.0485.
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The BOE or bank of England will stop temporary to cut their rate since the inflation data is not progressing in the direction that BOE wants. The inflation remains sticky.
Causing the fix income market interest rates in UK to remain high. Fix income investors from Malaysia will put their money in the UK. The previous international fix income that park at USA in the 2 year or 10 year note have move their money to UK fix income money market. Causing the USA dollar to weaken and strengthen the UK Pound.
The ringgit is gaining strength but still the Ringgit is trading lower everyday against the Pound.
Until UK BOE resume cutting rates. The Ringgit will remain weak against the Pound.
The price in the coming months will be RM6.03 per one British Pound.
Might go up to RM6.3231 if UK inflation data continue to be bad.
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UK pound against Malaysia ringgit will continue to see that Ringgit to strengthen due to series of rate cut in the USA in every Fed's FOMC. The Malaysian money oversea will continue to flow back to Malaysia as the Ringgit will continue this trend of strengthening until maybe Q1 or Q2 next year as the Fed's cut rate.
previous RM6.3231 per pound will not happen, previous pound RM6.03 most likely will not happen also. The current rate is at RM5.5981. This number might just reach near RM 5.0485 in the coming months as the ringgit strengthen.
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