Watching for IWM to bounce off support

Apr 11

IWM is currently in a strong accumulation area based on the volume profile delta. The indexes were a bit oversold after yesterday's CPI report and FOMC minutes, leading to a bounce in the afternoon. I am skeptical as to whether today's PPI report and fed speakers will have the same effect so I closed my puts. Here is my reasoning:

VIX keeps rejecting above $16.25. If it does not move up sharply at market open, I expect it to reject again and move back down towards $13.00.



The 10y bonds chart looks like yields have topped out for the week after hitting the R3 fib pivot point. I see it retracing down the channel until next week.



Same situation with the Dollar.



I expect a small rally into the weekend or early next week. Timing will depend on the reaction to today's PPI report. I'd like to see a dip in the morning so I can minimize risk in case there is not enough momentum to get to $206. I expect some choppiness there so we can either continue moving up next week or head for new lows.

Also thinking this looks like another bullish wedge on NYSE..

Apr 11

Comment

$206.22 price label should say "Sell" 🤦‍♂️