QQQ pull back done or another leg down?
Updated
QQQ had a bad week last week after trying since February to break long term resistance of the Blue trading channel. There was a lot of momentum but ultimately after being squeezed between resistance of the blue channel and support from black channel midline, it was time to take profit for the big guys. Clearly, inflation readings and uncertainty about interest rate cuts were the main factors.
A hard sell off last week to establish a clear down channel with the biggest selling on Friday. Using the channel from August to November last year and with some minor tweaks, you can see that it ended Friday right on the support line.
Another thing I was looking at were several of the most recent pullbacks over the last few years. You can see them overlayed on the peak of March 21st. Going by them, QQQ has already come close to extent of the smaller pullbacks.
In my limited experience, these two indicators are usually a good sign for a rebound this week. The RSI is also in the oversold range and in line with other bottoms. The rebound could just be a short-term rally in the down channel like back in Aug and Sept last year with another leg down in the coming month or so. Or we could see a new attempt to break out of the blue channel.
Either way, I was brave enough to open a few positions Friday before the close. Hopefully I don't regret that.
A hard sell off last week to establish a clear down channel with the biggest selling on Friday. Using the channel from August to November last year and with some minor tweaks, you can see that it ended Friday right on the support line.
Another thing I was looking at were several of the most recent pullbacks over the last few years. You can see them overlayed on the peak of March 21st. Going by them, QQQ has already come close to extent of the smaller pullbacks.
In my limited experience, these two indicators are usually a good sign for a rebound this week. The RSI is also in the oversold range and in line with other bottoms. The rebound could just be a short-term rally in the down channel like back in Aug and Sept last year with another leg down in the coming month or so. Or we could see a new attempt to break out of the blue channel.
Either way, I was brave enough to open a few positions Friday before the close. Hopefully I don't regret that.
Comment
Nice bounce today. I would expect more to come this week as we work through a short-term rally.Comment
Rally onComment
Test of mid channel today. Futures already looking like a pullback at 10pm after Meta earnings. As you can see from the previous down channel in Aug-Oct last year, some selling after 3 days of green candles is normal. What matters is that price stays above the recent low. Could even be a good place to buy in a little if you think it is just temporary.Comment
A one day pull back due to is all you got yesterday. Rally right back on after a gap up on Google and Microsoft earnings. So far price is following the trend lines perfectly.Comment
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With moving averages.Comment
Big sell in the last hour of the day to make a clear rejection off the 20 day SMA, but still not a lower low compared to Thursday last week. So there is still some hope for this rally.Comment
Up and down we go.Comment
Big gap up on Apple earnings not as bad as expected (not so bad news is good news?) and the "hope" of rate cuts are back after more moderated jobs report.
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