Uh oh: SPY Week of Jan 8
Updated
Doing this early.
Thresholds, targets, ARIMA all up in the chart for your reference.
Everything is screaming super bearish and if we take a gander as some technical setups, its really quite bad. I didn't really see this forming until I took a look at the charts after close:
Heikin Ashi:
How we closed on the week puts a confirmed bearish reversal setup for Heikin Ashi, with a retracement level of 423.69.
Not catastrophic but not great. The setup is also being shared by MSFT:
Interestingly, we have an inverse setup on NVDA and AAPL:
NVDA:
AAPL:
However, AAPL isn't as clean of a setup as NVDA.
Obviously this is purely a TA approach. This target would take us slightly below our 3 month lows and still be missing our annual lows. So its really not all that crazy to think that we can't make it there and then reverse, but obviously timelines are tbd and how this would look in terms of timelines with the 3 month high prob target and such is rather interesting.
I mentioned in the video but we have multiple rejections of the monthly threshold. Next week it really should be straight forward, another rejection or just avoidance of the threshold all together will signal an obvious bearish setup:
It puts our target at 461 which is within the weekly range for next week, so no big deal there.
If we reclaim and hold the bearish threshold then its likely we go up first to that 475 before probably seeing rejection at the bullish condition for a move back down.
Kind of messy but not really, it actually should be a relatively straight forward week in terms of seeing which targets are going to be hit *knock on wood*.
Let's see how we start off and go from there!
Safe trades everyone and have a great weekend :-).
Thresholds, targets, ARIMA all up in the chart for your reference.
Everything is screaming super bearish and if we take a gander as some technical setups, its really quite bad. I didn't really see this forming until I took a look at the charts after close:
Heikin Ashi:
How we closed on the week puts a confirmed bearish reversal setup for Heikin Ashi, with a retracement level of 423.69.
Not catastrophic but not great. The setup is also being shared by MSFT:
Interestingly, we have an inverse setup on NVDA and AAPL:
NVDA:
AAPL:
However, AAPL isn't as clean of a setup as NVDA.
Obviously this is purely a TA approach. This target would take us slightly below our 3 month lows and still be missing our annual lows. So its really not all that crazy to think that we can't make it there and then reverse, but obviously timelines are tbd and how this would look in terms of timelines with the 3 month high prob target and such is rather interesting.
I mentioned in the video but we have multiple rejections of the monthly threshold. Next week it really should be straight forward, another rejection or just avoidance of the threshold all together will signal an obvious bearish setup:
It puts our target at 461 which is within the weekly range for next week, so no big deal there.
If we reclaim and hold the bearish threshold then its likely we go up first to that 475 before probably seeing rejection at the bullish condition for a move back down.
Kind of messy but not really, it actually should be a relatively straight forward week in terms of seeing which targets are going to be hit *knock on wood*.
Let's see how we start off and go from there!
Safe trades everyone and have a great weekend :-).
Comment
Its doing scenario 2. We reclaimed monthly threshold putting our target at 475.
Comment
Moved quicker than expected.Was tempted to swing short EOD but we still left that monthly 99 unhit. So just going to wait.
Look for rejection there or the top of the bullish condition on the month at 475.99. Rejection there and we resume the downtrend down to 461 range.
If we break over it and hold then I'm not really sure... I'll have to deal with that if/when the time comes.
Comment
Shakeout day today.Its going to try to get your money in both directions. Rest assured its still going to go up. But its best to let it play its games alone...
Comment
So, SPY needs to take out this GT, its playing gameswith it right now:I have closed out all of my longs including the CAD MSFT position (that was only about a 2.15% win but I will take it, but you see? Follow congress, they know whats up haha).
I have an alert set at the GT, once its taken out I will start a short position for pullback. Things are getting tired, but we have to be patient.
Safe trades everyone!
Comment
Okay in light of the close, either we get smacked down tomorrow and start selling or its just long to the 3 month highs. Let's see what happens.
Comment
Short on IWM targetting 192.18.Did some long scalps on SOXL.
IWM I am in 1,500 shares of TZA
I am trailing up here, i have my trail stop set at 22.05 just under 1%. Hoping to move it up to 1% soon...
Comment
For ya'll SPY stans, we are at a critical area here:Its make or break imo. We fall through the monthly threshold and we are heading to the bottom of the threshold range at 469. We hold it, we are heading up to ATHs and $$$$$.
Comment
IWM TP hit.
Took off half.
Likely bearish trend day but its pretty much OVAH! SPY lost its critical level, so...yeah.
Immediate TP on SPY would be 469.
CPI was really really bad btw. I was expecting it to be slightly worse but not to the extent that it was. I was a little shook. That said, still just honestly looking for pullback at this point and not assuming anything dramatic. If we break below 469 then we can consider the bearish thesis back in action. But lets not put carriages before horses.
Comment
Didn't update last evening because I suspect it could have been a bull trap and wanted to wait and see with PPI.PPI data is okay and we are, at this point, pushing up.
SPY has again broken out of its monthly conditions and NQ has reclaimed its monthly bearish threshold:
NQ:
SPY:
It's likely we will probably go up today. And probably go up for the days/weeks to come. Perhaps FOMC and future rate hikes will derail the up-ness, but at this point it seems rather clear it wants to tackle these highs first. And we can def hit these highs before any major news catalyst or economic catalyst can derail it to the downside.
Just be careful off open that it doesn't do a 180 and sell down, its still a possiblity. But a re-test of the monthly threshold would be acceptable. Holding that and I am just going to suck it up and get long on SPY indefinitely. haha
Good luck all!
Comment
Bull trapComment
Maybe.. hahaEither way, whipsaw central!
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