The Green Arrow...

Apr 26, 2023

Oil trading unequally low in a large channel. Not near equilibrium. Equilibrium would require the price of oil to go up.

The Green Arrow depicts the two scenarios (trading above/below).

I am very new to Crude.. This is not advice but merely a test. A test to see how much equilibrium means (if at all) in this market.

Thus, the biased me comes into this on the assumption that equilibrium is commonplace. Therefore my biased guess is that Oil trades above the Green Arrow this summer. . . Below green to me would mean the lower bounds white line is in play.

Estimated targets...
(i) Trading above Green Arrow ~ 90$ area in July 2023.
(ii) Trading below Green Arrow ~ 60$ area in July 2023.

Sep 16, 2023

Comment

Close enough for not being an energy trader ;)

Oct 3, 2023

Trade closed: target reached

In energy trading, the date of your price forecast may be more important (ie, more futures trading in energy?) than other assets.

So, I was correct about reaching the top of the trend, but I was off by a little over 1 month... I was off in timing by about 20% if you think about it as 1month (off) / 5months (of forecast) ~ 20%.

Point is-- this chart is now worthless (not because it was bad, but because it is out of date now).

Do not use it, like always, for financial decisions.