Short

GOLD - Hundred bucks (Trading the daily cycle decline)

Updated

After testing the 2021.06.01 pivot at 1916 gold printed daily swing high today.

The daily cycle peaked on day 50. More than enough , it was an extremely long daily cycle. No question we are moving into the daily cycle low where I want to be long again to test the all time highs.

What to expect during this decline?

First of all I want to see the 4 day RSI to get oversold. Right now we haven't seen RSI to get oversold since the end of October.

Using the Fibonacci retracement the minimum target is the 23,6% and maybe the 50%.

Using the moving the averages price will break below the 10 EMA (red) , test the 50SMA (blue) and maybe tag the 200 EMA (purple).

If the regression event is enough violent the lower Bollinger band will be tagged and price might break through on the last day.

The target is : 1810$ and the trade will last for 5-7 days.

Note

Typical DCL type move today.
Green daily candle to pull in bulls and dump by the end of day…

Note

We are going to close near the daily low.

Note

Silver is leading. 23 pulling like a magnet.

Note

Xauxag trending higher. Silver might break down the range before turning up
Again.

Note

It seems the daily cycle top came 2 days later than I expected :on last Friday.

Note

If there is no continuation of the rally after Thursday's green candle, then it was just a false breakout

Note

Xauxag is breaking higher and silver is breaking down:

Note

The starting dollar rally will accelerate the metal decline

Note

Notice the divergemce between the price and RSI

Note

We all knew that at some point the dollar will start to rally : after all we are having an FOMC meeting next week.

Note

I have a feeling we are going to have a key reversal today . for this We need to close below Yesterday’s low what was 1911…

Note

First time this year we are tagging the 200 SMA.

Note

First lower low on the hourly this year.

Note

100 SMA backtest

Note

We have an important daily data today which will affect gold and dollar prices. the US core PCE index was at 4.7% in November and is expected to decline to 4.4% in December. I think the data will be 4.2-4.3% what clearly shows that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy has effectively decreased inflation.

Note

100 EMA and 100 SMA backtested again.

Note

Test of the 200SMA on the hourly.
We are going to break it sooner or later

Note

The rising wedge broke down yesterday finally. Traders who are long for a while are taking profit ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Note

Crazy markets. Holding the short position:

I’ve seen many times in the past how the gold market and currency markets are reversing the next day after the FOMC meeting. Wait for dust to settle down.

Note

Day 63. One of the longest daily cycle I have ever seen in gold. I would definetely not long here. You know the rule : stairstep up elevator down. Or freefall.

Note

Wow. What a reversal. We just gave back all of yesterday’s gains in 1 hour.

Note

4 hours left from today’s trading, if there is no dramatic change by the close we are printing a key reversal:
New high today and a close below yesterday’s low.

chartwatchers

Also on:

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.