Interest Rates: The Hidden Driver of Markets📈 U.S. Interest Rates: From the Volcker Era to Today & Why September Could Be a Turning Point
When people talk about “the Fed,” they often forget just how much its decisions shape every asset class — from stocks and bonds to real estate and crypto. To understand the setup for September 2025, we ne
Key data points
Last release
—
Observation period
Jul 30, 2025
Next release
—
Forecast
—
Highest
20.00 % on May 8, 1981
Lowest
0.25 % on Feb 28, 2022
About US interest rate
In the United States, the authority to set interest rates is divided between the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Board) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board decides on changes in discount rates after recommendations submitted by one or more of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. The FOMC decides on open market operations, including the desired levels of central bank money or the desired federal funds market rate.
Related indicators
Fed rate cut timing: September or October? The Jackson Hole Symposium has set the stage for renewed downside pressure on the U.S. dollar, as investors increasingly position for a 25-basis point Fed rate cut in September.
However, Morgan Stanley assigns only a 50% probability to such a move, suggesting that a September cut is far from guar
Central Banks, the Great Paradox of 2025This year 2025 reveals a paradox in the floating exchange market (Forex), a paradox I can describe as rare. The foundation of currency movements in the foreign exchange market lies in the divergence of monetary policies. In other words, it is the difference in the trajectory of interest rates among
Markets Eye Policy, Positioning, and PerformanceCME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1! COMEX:GC1! FRED:FEDFUNDS
Happy 4th of August, Traders!
As we head into the new week, here’s a look at what’s on the calendar:
Key Economic Data Releases
Monday:
• Factory Orders (MoM) – June
• Supply: 3-Month Bill Auction, 6-Month Bill Auct
$USINTR -Feds Leaves Rates Steady (July/2025)ECONOMICS:USINTR
July/2025
source: Federal Reserve
- The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 4.25%–4.50% for a fifth straight meeting, defying President Trump’s demands for cuts even after positive GDP growth .
Still, two governors dissented in favor of a cut—the first such dual dissent since 1
Latest on Fed rate cut debateThe Fed isn’t expected to cut rates this week, but this FOMC meeting should still be very interesting.
Powell will need to address growing pressure from board members Waller and Bowman, who’ve both called for cuts, citing limited inflation impact from tariffs.
Still, Powell is just one of 12 vot
$USINTR -Fed Keeps Rates Uncut (June/2025)ECONOMICS:USINTR
June/2025
source: Federal Reserve
- The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% for a fourth consecutive meeting in June 2025, in line with expectations, as policymakers take a cautious stance to fully evaluate the economic impact of President Trump’
Mr. LATE drop the RATE!!"Jerome Powell aspires to be remembered as a heroic Federal Reserve chair, akin to Tall Paul #VOLKER.
However, Volker was largely unpopular during much of his tenure.
The primary function of the Federal Reserve is to finance the federal #government and ensure liquidity in US capital markets.
Contr
Rate Cuts and Risky Bets: When the Fed Rolls Out the Red Carpet🎬 The Fed’s June Meeting Is Around the Corner
Mark your calendars: June 17–18 is when the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes next. With the benchmark interest rate ECONOMICS:USINTR currently holding steady at 4.25% – 4.50%, investors and policymakers alike are keenl
$USINTR -Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged (May/2025)ECONOMICS:USINTR
May/2025
source: Federal Reserve
- The Federal Reserve kept the funds rate at 4.25%–4.50% range for a third consecutive meeting as officials adopt a wait-and-see approach amid concerns about the effects of President Trump’s tariffs.
Policymakers noted that uncertainty about the
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Frequently Asked Questions
US interest rate is 4.5% at the moment.
Last month US interest rate was 4.5%, and the month before it reached 4.5%.
Interest rate is the proportion of a loan that is charged as interest to the borrower, typically an annual percentage of the loan outstanding. When it comes to the national level, interest rate is a rate at which banks borrow money from a country's central bank.
Yes, negative interest rate can be used by the government as a monetary policy tool to stimulate economy growth.
Growing or falling interest rate can influence the country's economy, stimulate it or lower the inflation level. Even people can feel the effect of interest rate's movements — for example, if interest rate increases, loans get more expensive.