Here is a comparison of the main trading channels for the 1990's run up to the dot com bubble and the 2010's run up to the COVID bubble. We are currently testing the 200-week SMA and at the midline of the green channel (same place as Feb 2001). You can see the top of the blue channel (and bottom of green channel) sitting lower at around 9700, which is the peak in...
Here are the major channels that I am watching for QQQ. You can see that last week we had a strong bounce off the blue channel's support. The blue channel was formed off the low in 2008-2009 and the subsequent massive bull rally for the past 12 years. You can also see that QQQ lost the even stronger bull channel that started in 2016. The question now becomes if...
After a monstrous rally of 152% off the 2020 COVID low, that NASDAQ is now only 7% above the pre-COVID ATH on 2/19/20. You can see in the chart that the correction has bounced on but ultimately lost all of the major trend lines since 11/22/21. It currently is at one of the last major support lines. You can see the big rally last week was a major test of the...
You think the stock market correction is painful. The bond market is seeing its worse decline since the 1940's. It is down 50% since March 2020. My suggestion is that retirees don't look at their 401k. I sure hope it finds a bottom soon.
S&P 500 is currently finding support at the bottom of the down channel. It is also the 0.618 fib level. Today's price action is up and trying to bounce off the support line. I personally don't think this is the bottom, but this is an important place to watch. We could get a good rally off this trend line like back in the summer. However, the recent short rally was...
Current price action suggests test of 20 day SMA after finding support at the bottom of the channel and touch off the 200 week SMA (see my other posts on 200 week SMA). The new bullish counter rally is not really confirmed until it can hold above the 20 day and break the blue trend line. A bullish sign would be to break out, retest the 20 and the trend and then...
Pretty simple chart. The S&P has used the 200 week SMA as support for a long time. However, back in 2008, you can see almost the exact same pattern in both price and the RSI. The market went mostly sideways following the 200 week SMA for about 5 months before it eventually crashed. 1D time frame
Looking at the current corrective wave structure, I think that we have another leg or maybe even two down before that market finds a bottom. In Elliott wave theory, wave C is based on the drop of wave A by aligning it to the top of wave B as shown in the chart. The market is currently testing the 0.618 fib level. This is also the bottom of the current down...
Here is a look at the 20 and 200 WEEK moving average on the IVV ticker. Note how the S&P has reliably tested the 200 week MA during strong corrections over the last 12 years or so. Rarely does the price go much below. It also seems reasonable to me that we both get a retest of the June low and a more significant test of the Feb 2020 high. If we see this, then...
The S&P bounced off the channel support today. It also tested the 1.236 fib extension off the most recent peak. Both signs that a bounce was coming. There is also a gap that looks like it could be filled. In addition, this would be a good place for a test of the 20 day moving average by end of week if not early next week. Real question is will this hold or will we...
Relative movements in price between 2-4pm for the S&P 500 on the 15 minute timeframe. 2-2:15pm: -1.85% by 3pm: +2.38% by 4pm: -3.08% Day ends at -1.68% overall You think that all of your charts and analysis mean something, but at the end of the day the price moves based on what the big trading firms with their trillion dollar portfolios and their algorithms...
A look at the big picture using 1M timeframe. In an attempt to remove the daily noise in price, you can see that even after a rough 2022 so far that we have barely scratched the surface of how bad it could get. The thing that I noticed is that the current price action looks very similar to April 2001 and March 2008. Looking at all 3 you can see both had a several...
Here is my guess for bitcoin. The trading channels are showing that if bit coin loses the current support the next stop may be $10k. 1D with 20 and 200 day moving average
Following up on my 8/17 idea on the expected pull back in the S&P. The gap down below the 20 day average is a very strong sign the rally is over. The only question now is how low will it go before finding support. First stop may be the horizontal line that was a gap up. I would not be surprised for a test of the most recent low. I personally hope not lower than that.
Is this the end of that rally for the S&P? I see several strong indicators that this could be the end for now and a pullback is coming. Testing 200 day moving average Testing top of down channel RSI very oversold
Comparing trading channels to key price levels in the NASDAQ. Price has already hit 30% pull back. Given inflation and rate increases the NASDAQ is going down more, at least to the bottom of the green channel and probably touch the top of the black channel at around 40% loss. We should see strong support in this area as it is both channel support and Feb 2020 top....
Simple trading channel technical analysis. See my post from 5/15. After consolidating along mid line of the blue channel, bitcoin lost support this weekend and head down to at least the bottom of the channel. Look for bounce at the 20,000 level, maybe test 19,000. Longer term could see drop to the green channel, but 11,000 looks like very strong support.
Looking at my technical analysis, we were due for a rally last week after double bottoming at the support of the down channel. Major US holiday weekend with low volume are usually times to see these kinds of rallies. I would expect the market to retest the gains made now that traders will be back, hence my guess at a retest of the April 5th, 2021 gap up area (gray...