Though COVID-19 market crash is not a conventional crash, the market bubble that proceeded it was. I took a swag at overlaying the conventional market cycles on the current S&P 500. Obvious I am guessing at time frames and directions, but I based it on basic fundamentals. A cure for COVID-19 or some other significant market mover (Fed stimulus) can't be known and...
Tech stocks (NDX) have hit their major resistance levels twice and retreated. AAPL bounced off $300 yesterday. Is AAPL able to push to $310 today or tomorrow? Based on NDX analysis, I don't think so, but maybe AAPL will break out for at least a short time before retreating.
NASDAQ hit is major resistance line today and pulled back. Trend lines not promising. Maybe a retest Thursday or Friday. It is hard to see a push through the resistance. My guess, the end of this bull run is in sight. DJI and SPX still have a little head room left for this week, but will be in the same boat by Friday. It will be interesting to see what happens next week.
Here is an addendum to my normal analysis of the S&P 500. This time I am looking at the VIX. If the trend holds, then look for a new peak around May 11-12 with another valley around 14-15. This confirms my trend line analysis of the S&P 500 ticker.
Based on my trend line analysis, early indications look like the S&P 500 will try and retest 2950 this week or next. Trend lines are still bullish, hard bounce off the demand line at the end of yesterday's trading, and futures up 1% this morning.
It has been a crazy week the S&P 500. It seems the rise is flattening out. It did not take as big of a drop today as I thought, but some stocks were down 5% or more. That opened up some buying opportunities. It still has a slight upward trajectory, but getting very close to sideways. Maybe by the end of next week it will be sideways and looking for a turn down?...
This is a refresh of my analysis from Wednesday when I was curious if we would see a repeat of April 1st. So far it is on track. Question is how low will it go?
Follow up on yesterday's note on how the market looks just like it did at the end of March. It has all of the makings of short squeeze. Started a little earlier in the day than last time. Lets see how low this goes.
Today's rally looks an awful lot like the days leading up to April 1st. Big short squeeze followed by a big sell off while Institutional Investors rebalance their positions? Sell/Short tomorrow? Buy on Friday?
Does the market imploded, exploded, or doesn't care. Interesting that the 1 week, 2 week, and the Fib retrace of 0.618 all converge around 12:00-12:30pm today. It probably means nothing.
The momentum pattern would imply a flat or even a down down day. However, the support level suggests an up day. Should be interesting to see which happens.
S&P 500 bumping against major support level since the bottom.
MACD based momentum analysis of S&P 500 using 2 hour intervals. Market looks to be running out of positive momentum. Up or down next? My guess is down.
VIX levels are up and volume is down. Tuesday was just foreshadowing. NVDA and AMD dropped 10% in less than an hour. Today was a minor correction. All trends are pointing to a drop. I don't think it will be massive, but I do think it will be significant (-15%). Best case we go sideways for the next week or two. After that I think its a bull all the way to election day.
Same analysis as last week when I saw a glimmer of a change (April 15th). So far it has proved true. How much longer will it go sideways? Is the next more up or down?
Tech stocks are on a tear, but are we approaching overbought? Big fan of AMD and their future, but wow its stock price is back near all time highs. I was happy to buy in the 30's, but getting to rich for my blood. Its P/E ratio is 192!!!
Market is starting to level off the last few days despite today's rally. What happens next week? Another jump or will all of the earnings reports in the next couple weeks slay this bull? Only 65 earnings reports this week. Next week there will be 447, then 924 the week after that, and then 1367. That is a lot of bad news to come. finance.yahoo.com