timwest

timwest Wizard Updated 

$TSLA has had wild swings in valuation from under 2 times sales and over 20 times sales in the past few years. Granted, you have to know the future to know what the sales are, but in 2019 it was insanely cheap just as the Model Y was just starting to sell. The MODEL Y is why Tesla has done so well in my opinion. It has dominated and is still growing insanely fast...

timwest Wizard Updated 

What do we get when we buy NASDAQ:AAPL shares for a valuation of $3 trillion? We get $100 billion in free cash flow. (3 year average free cash flow is ~$100B) Over 10 years revenues have more than doubled from $170B in 2013 to $383B and debt has jumped from $17B to FWB:95B to pay dividends and to buy back stock which has dropped from 26B shares to under 16B...

timwest Wizard

Since Microsoft bought ChatGPT back in March 2023, the price of NASDAQ:MSFT stock has gone on to replicate the same pattern as the 1987 S&P500 stock market rally. Does it mean anything all by itself? No. It still needs a catalyst for the drop to happen. The 1987 stock market crash had many triggers and catalysts and the drop was a sharp 40% from August 28th,...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Here's an overlay of $MCD in yellow from 1980 to 2005 lined up to the 75% drop in $MCD on the "Dollar Menu" price wars, store closings and YOY% sales decline for $MCD back in 2002. It was a disaster. Well, $TSLA has the same 75% drop to the current low. Maybe they mimic, maybe they don't. Just interesting! Here's the $MCD chart and the part that I copied and...

timwest Wizard

The valuation of NASDAQ:AAPL shares is always an interesting challenge and historically you can view the range of valuation that Apple shares have traded at using the powerful tools that TradingView has for you. Here is a template you can easily make a copy of using the "share" button at the bottom of the graph. Once you click "share" you will see a "make it...

timwest Wizard

The methodology shown here is what I call "Time@Mode" because of a pattern of counting the number of bars at "the mode" of a trend and using that count to project the time of the move out of that mode. I found the pattern by plotting charts by hand back in the 1980's, but fine-tuned here at TradingView with the powerful charting and tools available to us,...

timwest Wizard

I published this chart when NASDAQ:TSLA was back up to the "Earnings Level" back in September near $280 and pointed out that it was up against "Key Resistance" and here we are 4+ months later and we have had two more earnings reports and Tesla has fallen back down to another important "News Level" that I labeled "Moody's Upgrade Level". The reason that Moody's...

timwest Wizard

The good news about Natural Gas is after adjusting for inflation, but still it is positive when the price of energy is low and affordable for consumers. We have a lot of natural gas in the USA and when the price stays the same and inflation makes your wages and income go up and makes the affordability of energy go up as well. It is easy to remember the headlines...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Here is a long term view of long term US Gov't interest rates. Long term is defined as 30 years and is a common bond owned by pension funds and insurance companies and other long term investors with long term obligations. I highlight the various ranges of interest rates as shown in these 4 boxes and the few moves that temporarily moved interest rates outside...

timwest Wizard

Here are the actual #'s for you to see the 2024 Wall Street analysts forecasts on the chart. Once those are charted in the black rectangles at the year-end price targets, we can see where there are concentrations of estimates and where investors might pause and sell as the target has been reached for the year. And then I added in the 9% and 10% green lines to...

timwest Wizard Updated 

NASDAQ:TSLA was trading over 20X's sales in 2021 and 2022 and was "way ahead" of itself in valuation. The cart was before the horse. First is expectations, then reality comes next. Growth and momentum gets investors excited and they pay UP for potential. With stocks, it isn't a "weighing game" at the beginning because the sellers are holders who don't want to...

timwest Wizard

A little brief before I start into this. I got started investing prior to the 1987 stock market crash and have always been amazed at the stock market for what it can do in a short period of time. People experience the market in so many different ways and I was fascinated by the mass-hysteria, psychology, economics and politics that surrounded the entire 1987...

timwest Wizard

In order to get the decimal point to the right of a number, I had to multiply AMEX:SPY by 1,000,000,000,000 or 1 Trillion. The price of the market is unchanged since January 1997 with the adjustment. That is an incredible 26 years where prices haven't bean 'inflation as measured by the quantity of money' floating around in the banking system. Nominally, our...

timwest Wizard Updated 

The "real value of the US Gov't Debt" is a different way of looking at our situation through rose-colored glasses, but it is a fair analysis. If we "adjust the debt level for inflation" as measured by the CPI Index (All Urban Consumers Index) from the beginning of the series back in 1966, you will have a line that is grinding SIDEWAYS since October 2020 at a...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA vs Lithium Prices Tesla was faced with crushing increases in the price of lithium which created a feedback-loop spiral to the downside for investor and speculator expectations. There were many other factors going on at the same time for Tesla's big slide from $400+ down to $100+ per share, but this picture paints a picture and story which is...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Adjusted for inflation as measured by FRED:CPIAUCSL , the price of crude oil hasn't changed since the price peak in 1985. The back and forth oscillations in supply and demand over the decades has left us right where we started back when I was in college 38 years ago! The price of a first class stamp in 1985 was 13 cents and is now 66 cents. So, the price of a...

timwest Wizard

The goal of this chart is to attempt to show the impact of energy costs in the current economy. We use equal amounts of natural gas and crude oil according to economic websites, so a chart that shows the year-over-year % change of energy costs would be useful to look at so we aren't confused by headlines. Everyone seems to be looking at crude oil as the main...

timwest Wizard

If you have seen the general news that M2 Money Supply is contracting at the greatest rate in 50 years, then you may be wondering why it is happening and what it means. I hope you do, at least. Money Supply is a general term that means the total money available to an economy in the form of cash money in the bank plus loans and short term deposits sitting in...