SpyMasterTrades

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This is a daily chart of Bitcoin with the Ichimoku Cloud indicator. The Ichimoku Cloud is one of the best indicators for detecting trend reversals. When a candle breaks above the cloud from below, it is often considered a bullish trend reversal on the timeframe analyzed. Similarly, when a candle breaks below the cloud from above, it is often considered a bearish...

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This is an analysis of the S&P 500 for December 2022. Right now, the market is producing some unusual charts. Volatility Volatility is one such unusual chart. As most traders know, the VIX is a volatility index derived from S&P 500 options for the 30 days following the measurement date. Volatility measures the frequency and magnitude of price movements over...

SpyMasterTrades Updated 

This is an analysis of the S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) for November 2022. Overview The S&P 500 remains in a downtrend. While price bounced off of the 200-week moving average, there is a significant amount of overhead resistance. There has not yet been full backwardation in the VIX term structure that could lend credibility to the idea that a cycle low has been...

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This is a monthly chart of the defense company Lockheed Martin (LMT). As you can see, a bull pennant is appearing. In my experience, I have found that the most valid bull flags or pennants usually retrace back to the Golden Ratio (0.618), then bounce and continue higher (see below chart). When this occurs, the measured move up is typically one full...

SpyMasterTrades Updated 

The chart above shows the relative performance between the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 on a yearly basis. You can see that we are currently sitting right on the 125-year support line. (This may possibly be the longest-lasting support line I've ever seen). This chart may be indicating that, in the years to come, the Dow Jones may outperform the S&P 500. As you...

SpyMasterTrades Updated 

Below is an analysis of the S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) for the period of mid-to-late October 2022. Weekly Expected Move There is a 68% chance that SPY will close the week within this price range. High price: 375.64 Low price: 349.95 There is a 95% chance that SPY will close the week within this price range. High price: 388.48 Low price: 337.10 For those who do...

SpyMasterTrades

Last week, UK pension funds, which hold highly leveraged bond derivative positions, were facing a nearly $1 trillion loss as bond prices crashed and yields rose. The crash in the bond market has been underway for years, but the tipping point occurred when the UK prime minister pledged to cut taxes at a time when inflation is soaring into the double...

SpyMasterTrades

In this post, I will explain what jumping S-curves means and how you can identify potential S-curves before they jump . First, let's begin with the chart above (also copied below). This is a yearly chart of McKesson Corporation (MCK), a medical supplies company. As you can see in the chart below, this stock has been soaring over the past year despite most...

SpyMasterTrades

We just experienced one of the biggest bull traps in stock market history. A bull trap occurs when price reverses to the upside after a downtrend, such that market participants enter bullish or long positions believing that the downtrend has ended and a new bull run has begun. The trap occurs when price rapidly falls back down taking out the previous low and...

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As many of you know, this week Warren Buffet increased his stake in the oil and natural gas company Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY). Warren Buffett’s holding company Berkshire Hathaway now owns about 21% of the company. In light of Warren Buffet's purchase, I analyzed the chart of OXY to see what he or his analysts might be seeing. As I'll explain below, what I...

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I have been asked how low the S&P 500 could go in the coming economic downturn. In terms of stock market price action, all major economic downturns are merely Fibonacci retracements on the yearly chart. In fact, we can predict with a reasonably high degree of certainty the bottom for the next recession before it even begins! That's because stock market bottoms...

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With crude oil prices declining, one might expect that the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening is working and that perhaps a pivot may be on the horizon. However, if we dig deeper, charts are sending warning signs that perhaps crude oil prices, and inflation in general, might remain elevated for much longer than expected. The chart above is a monthly chart of...

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Market participants are wondering right now if we are merely in a bear market rally or if this is the beginning of a new long-term bull run. I thought I would write a post to share my thoughts. First, the chart above: This is a weekly chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) with Fibonacci levels applied. I drew Fibonacci levels from the January high to the June low to...

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This is a daily chart of EV manufacturer Rivian Automotive ( RIVN ). Price continues to consolidate as the moving averages converge. On the right-hand side is the indicator called the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP). This indicator provides a vertical histogram of volume. The volume bars help identify the price ranges where most volume has occurred, which...

SpyMasterTrades Updated 

This is an analysis of the S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) for the period of September 12th through September 16th. Weekly Expected Move There is a 68% chance that SPY will close the week within this price range: High price: 416.90 Low price: 396.30 There is a 95% chance that SPY will close the week within this price range: High price: 427.20 Low price: 386.00 For...

SpyMasterTrades

Bull flags are found in charts with strong uptrends and are considered continuation patterns. They form when price barely subsides as the oscillators revert downward, such that when the oscillators are ready to move up again, rapid increases in price recur. Below are some bull flags with bearish implications that suggest perhaps more economic pain is to come in...

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This is a daily chart of Veeva Systems (VEEV), a healthcare technology company that provides cloud solutions for the global life sciences industry. When the company reported its earnings on August 31st the stock price subsequently gapped down, as shown in the chart above. From a probability standpoint, this gap is likely to be filled for the reasons below. 1....

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Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) has only reached the cloud on a monthly chart three times in its 30+ year history on the exchange and every single time has proven to be an amazing and rare buying opportunity for long-term investors. If you're a long-term investor this could be a perfect time to cautiously dollar cost average (DCA) down. In the worst-case scenario, the...