BTC: 6000 IS THE NEW 3000 - WHAT IS THE LEADING INDICATOR
Hello, I want to add more colour to my previous view linked below.
A 6000ish level we are going around these days makes sense as it is double than 3000ish level of : this tells us, if there was any doubt about it, that the halving is already priced in (and probably it was since April 2019!). So as of now, I am confident this is the FAIR PRICE of 1 btc - the best indicator is the 200 MA : who better than the 200weekly can tell us where the price should be now? Any excessive distancing from it signal we are buying it to expensive or too cheap (greed and fear).
I think we exaclty are in the same situation as beginning of 2019. Huge drop in price, and price blocked for a while between the 200weekly MA and an upside resistance.
Same RSI situation, same MACD situation. But there is a difference. We might not take that much time to see a breakout of the resistance (it took 5 months in 2019, from nov 2018 drop), for two reasons:
1- volatility is much higher now than in 2018-2019 where daily movements have been in the range of 0. something for weeks. Current vola accelerates the process.
2- What I always keep telling you? Look at Number of transactions! it is an indicator of the activity of the ecosystem.
https://www.blockchain.com/charts/n-transactions
The patternt hey are following is the same as in March 2019. Steady growth to 350k, thena sudden drop and little consilidation at 250k, then again the spike at 350k that ANTICIPATED the breakout by few days. Not minutes, days!
Now, as you can see, we are exactly following the same pattern and we already consolidating for weeks now.
KEEP AN EYE ON THE NUMBER OF TRANSACTION TO CATCH THE NEXT RUN.
A 6000ish level we are going around these days makes sense as it is double than 3000ish level of : this tells us, if there was any doubt about it, that the halving is already priced in (and probably it was since April 2019!). So as of now, I am confident this is the FAIR PRICE of 1 btc - the best indicator is the 200 MA : who better than the 200weekly can tell us where the price should be now? Any excessive distancing from it signal we are buying it to expensive or too cheap (greed and fear).
I think we exaclty are in the same situation as beginning of 2019. Huge drop in price, and price blocked for a while between the 200weekly MA and an upside resistance.
Same RSI situation, same MACD situation. But there is a difference. We might not take that much time to see a breakout of the resistance (it took 5 months in 2019, from nov 2018 drop), for two reasons:
1- volatility is much higher now than in 2018-2019 where daily movements have been in the range of 0. something for weeks. Current vola accelerates the process.
2- What I always keep telling you? Look at Number of transactions! it is an indicator of the activity of the ecosystem.
https://www.blockchain.com/charts/n-transactions
The patternt hey are following is the same as in March 2019. Steady growth to 350k, thena sudden drop and little consilidation at 250k, then again the spike at 350k that ANTICIPATED the breakout by few days. Not minutes, days!
Now, as you can see, we are exactly following the same pattern and we already consolidating for weeks now.
KEEP AN EYE ON THE NUMBER OF TRANSACTION TO CATCH THE NEXT RUN.
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