BTCUSDT VOL SQUEEZE + FALLING WEDGE
Updated
Important things to note:
There are actually reasons to be short term bullish right now, yay!
Bullish Divergence is building right now on the lower timeframes.
Falling Wedge should push price into my box.
Watch for creation of inverse H&S on push up.
IH&S would likely lead to retest of top trendline.
Price is holding up well given the circumstances.
Large buyers have been stepping in on spot. Futures still getting rekt. Likely covering spot purchases.
On chain data shows very low supply.
A supply shock would lead to a decoupling from QQQ.
Macro situation still very uncertain.
I am macro bearish until the Fed switches gears and implements yield curve control (which they will).
Tradfi getting rekt hard. I do not see an end to the macro situation until the Fed breaks the credit market.
Hello everyone! I hope you are all doing well! My last box was hit perfectly. It took a little longer than expected due to earning season for tradfi. I have some good news. I have been keeping my eye on supply and it looks very promising. So, we have large buyers stepping in on spot which is keeping the price from falling into goblin town with the rest of Tradfi. Futures are still putting a lot of sell pressure on BTC at the moment, but the spot buys are offsetting it. This is causing a vol squeeze which can either push price up or down. I can see RSI bullish divergence building on lower timeframes and we can see a nice falling wedge. I will be looking at the PA on the way up to my new green box. Specifically, I am looking for the formation of an inverse H&S pattern which would bring the price up to test the top trendline. Though I am short term bullish, I am macro bearish until I see the Fed pivot on their hawkish stance. The Fed is currently breaking the credit market, which is breaking the equity market. Eventually, they will need to reverse course and implement yield curve control to stop the bloodshed. When this occurs, the market will have bottomed and pump rather hard. I can see this happening in the next 6-9 months, so stay tuned. The good news is that if BTC can push itself a bit higher, you will not have to worry about BTC breaking 30k when Tradfi bleeds. I think the supply shock coming into BTC along with short term bullishness can act as a good buffer against the macro environment. This is bitter sweet for me because I would love to purchase more BTC on the cheap. I have been buying steadily since the last drop to 32k. I will continue to update you once my box has been hit! Keep an eye on the price action! Thanks everyone!
So tell me what you think?
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
There are actually reasons to be short term bullish right now, yay!
Bullish Divergence is building right now on the lower timeframes.
Falling Wedge should push price into my box.
Watch for creation of inverse H&S on push up.
IH&S would likely lead to retest of top trendline.
Price is holding up well given the circumstances.
Large buyers have been stepping in on spot. Futures still getting rekt. Likely covering spot purchases.
On chain data shows very low supply.
A supply shock would lead to a decoupling from QQQ.
Macro situation still very uncertain.
I am macro bearish until the Fed switches gears and implements yield curve control (which they will).
Tradfi getting rekt hard. I do not see an end to the macro situation until the Fed breaks the credit market.
Hello everyone! I hope you are all doing well! My last box was hit perfectly. It took a little longer than expected due to earning season for tradfi. I have some good news. I have been keeping my eye on supply and it looks very promising. So, we have large buyers stepping in on spot which is keeping the price from falling into goblin town with the rest of Tradfi. Futures are still putting a lot of sell pressure on BTC at the moment, but the spot buys are offsetting it. This is causing a vol squeeze which can either push price up or down. I can see RSI bullish divergence building on lower timeframes and we can see a nice falling wedge. I will be looking at the PA on the way up to my new green box. Specifically, I am looking for the formation of an inverse H&S pattern which would bring the price up to test the top trendline. Though I am short term bullish, I am macro bearish until I see the Fed pivot on their hawkish stance. The Fed is currently breaking the credit market, which is breaking the equity market. Eventually, they will need to reverse course and implement yield curve control to stop the bloodshed. When this occurs, the market will have bottomed and pump rather hard. I can see this happening in the next 6-9 months, so stay tuned. The good news is that if BTC can push itself a bit higher, you will not have to worry about BTC breaking 30k when Tradfi bleeds. I think the supply shock coming into BTC along with short term bullishness can act as a good buffer against the macro environment. This is bitter sweet for me because I would love to purchase more BTC on the cheap. I have been buying steadily since the last drop to 32k. I will continue to update you once my box has been hit! Keep an eye on the price action! Thanks everyone!
So tell me what you think?
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
Note
Fun fact: If you started DCAing every single day from the all time high, your average price for BTC would be 43776. Not too bad! Goes to show the power of how DCAing can protect your capital. Everyone knows I am a big fan of DCAing! I DCA in and out of an asset. However, I keep a large chunk of paper on the side for the fat capitulations. Cheers!Note
I should also add that this needs to be a quick movement due to the FOMC right around the corner. At the very least it seems right that the price would squeeze up if there was potential downside right after. If we get lucky and JPow says something that the market wants to hear, after hitting the box, the next stop would be the top trendline. You should be very wary of the next Fed meeting. If anything is said that isn't priced in or caused the credit market to shake, it could be bad. Like I said here, I believe the downside risk is still above 30k as of right now. So just keep that in mind.Note
I believe that the market has the chance to rally on literally any good news. I would like to see this news soon, and by soon I mean by COB tomorrow. This is due to the looming FOMC meeting. If the pattern here breaks down, you will see signs of it via a close below 37.5k. If it breaks completely, next stop 34.3k. We will see what happens this week but it should be interesting!Note
If BTC closes lower this week, that would be 6th lower week in a row. The last time BTC saw 6 red weeks in a row was in 2014.Note
"I believe that the market has the chance to rally on literally any good news"Well the good news was "75bps hike not on the table" and boom, we get our good news market rally.
I want to see the price close above 39.5 ish. So far BTC is heading towards my box.
Note
The good news is it closed above 39.5 the bad news is this idea is completely invalidated. LOL. I will put out a new one in a few days once I can see where things are going.Note
Here's and update to the update: So the price fell below my support which technically invalidated my chart. However, I noticed that a ton of shorts got liquidated on the bounce. It was quite a bit of short vol which kept the price from falling into the depths of hell. Yay, I suppose. The pump, came from a gamma squeeze in tradfi. I can assume the gamma squeeze will happen over and over again all the way down to where ever this market it going. There is a credit unwind happening across the world where everyone is trying to deleverage. This means everyone is trying to sell everything they can and put some cash in their hands. Remember they do this not because they want to, but because they have to. It is a risk calculation that dictates this. Similar to getting liquidated, you sell because you are forced to, not because you want to. This unwind has been going on for awhile now but it should increase until all the juice in gone, the economy is in shambles and the fed has to implement yield curve control. This makes the short term outlook very unpredictable, however we know the end game is printer go brrrrr whether they want to or not. That is why I continue to stack BTC. Eventually, when I see some light at the end of the tunnel (probably in about 6-9 months) I will start picking up alts again in masse in preparation for the next bull run.
Note
I want to reiterate that we are coming up on the 6th red week in a row for BTC which hasn't happened since 2014. I would bet on mean reversion here, as opposed to betting on a 7th red week in a row.Note
Sooooo, the sky is falling, lol. Everything is on sale but what most investors want to know where the bottom is. I would say the bottom will come once GDP drops enough that the fed will need to reverse. This can happen anytime in the next 6-9 months. It can come as soon as the summer or as long as Q1 2023. It just depends on how much blood it takes to bring down inflation. Since the Fed can only control demand, they have to bring the market down to where supply levels are currently. Since Russian and Chinese governments have both decided to disrupt supply chains, the demand will need to be brought down to those levels, which means a recession. Otherwise if demand was high and supply was low, we get inflation. The US can improve supply, but that will come at a significant cost and will take time. This road will be bumpy!Note
Oh I also forgot to mention that UST is having a hard time holding its peg. It UST falls too much, the 40k BTC they hold will get liquidated. I am sure they are scrambling to fund UST right now, and I am also sure they have plenty of people willing to help.
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