Coming into this Fed meeting I would expect a bullish GBP. Yellen cannot hike based on recent data and looking at 5y5y inflation swaps, that also prices out a hike. At the same time, the Chinese are still offering 2-3 yards per day of USD on their swap lines. I think that GBP will have the biggest reaction to this meeting of all the pairs no matter the outcome, purely because of the disparity of good data that the UK has seen while the US has had relatively muted data. Key levels to watch for are noted in purple. Also note declining volumes leading into this meeting.
We are trading outside the market value area. We ideally want to be back at 1.33 where VPOC is. This is where longs will look to offload if we get a bullish run.
I am currently long from 75s so let's see if I get smashed out or not.
We are trading outside the market value area. We ideally want to be back at 1.33 where VPOC is. This is where longs will look to offload if we get a bullish run.
I am currently long from 75s so let's see if I get smashed out or not.
Comment:
UPDATE: One thing I wanted to point out when looking at news events - what tends to happen from a dealer's perspective is that the high and low gets taken out (of the range) first, then we find direction. News events tend to act as market shakeouts. Everyone thinks the NFP is a massive fundamental driver, for example, when actually it depends on market context. At the moment markets actually look at the ISM manufacturing more than NFP as a key driver for mid term trends. NFP acts as a big market shakeout upwards and downwards. Think from other participants' points of view and this can really aid decision making.