US EQUITY INDEX STRAT - FOMC FED: TP ON THE DIP & FADE THE RALLY
FED/ FOMC Tactical 18hr trading strategy:
1. With active structural shorts from 2180 (previously discussed/ entered) take profits "early" into the intermediate lows at 2100-2120 that we are likely to see into Fed volatility given hawkish surprise which may or MAY not occur.
- Taking profit even at higher levels (if the hike surprise pricing is less aggressive e.g. 2140 only reached) at 2140 is also advisable, given from 2140 we are highly likely to see 2160/80 on the day of a no hike as excitement builds a 1-1.8% rally.
2. Structurally re-short and fade the no hike rally/ exuberance into the highs at 2180 - this strategy effectively pays the 40-80pts in profit ABOVE what would be received without playing the Fed; which in itself is a high 10-25% of the whole initial structural move to 2000 which we are waiting for anyway which is clearly a great tactical opportunity.
Risks to the view:
1. The fed does indeed hike, in which case, SPX moves on the day 5-6% lower thus TP is hit "early" and unable to reshort - but the probability of this IMO is close to zero.
2. Of course short risks continue e.g. fed no hike causes ANOTHER leg higher through 2200 but this too imo is unlikely given bulls are exhausted and much of a "No hike" is priced in already.. i dont think US equities have more than a 1-2% retest but fail at highs rally left in them.
1. With active structural shorts from 2180 (previously discussed/ entered) take profits "early" into the intermediate lows at 2100-2120 that we are likely to see into Fed volatility given hawkish surprise which may or MAY not occur.
- Taking profit even at higher levels (if the hike surprise pricing is less aggressive e.g. 2140 only reached) at 2140 is also advisable, given from 2140 we are highly likely to see 2160/80 on the day of a no hike as excitement builds a 1-1.8% rally.
2. Structurally re-short and fade the no hike rally/ exuberance into the highs at 2180 - this strategy effectively pays the 40-80pts in profit ABOVE what would be received without playing the Fed; which in itself is a high 10-25% of the whole initial structural move to 2000 which we are waiting for anyway which is clearly a great tactical opportunity.
Risks to the view:
1. The fed does indeed hike, in which case, SPX moves on the day 5-6% lower thus TP is hit "early" and unable to reshort - but the probability of this IMO is close to zero.
2. Of course short risks continue e.g. fed no hike causes ANOTHER leg higher through 2200 but this too imo is unlikely given bulls are exhausted and much of a "No hike" is priced in already.. i dont think US equities have more than a 1-2% retest but fail at highs rally left in them.