I still believe that we should see the S&P500 around the 2145-2200 target but on the SHORT TERM we have some over bought condition that may need to be burnt off before we head higher. Now, there are a few possibilities of how this might have, one possible move is that we head higher into the 2095 ish area for a quick spike in sentiment and reverse and head lower. ...
Hey guys, so the FED came out today and said that they would raise the interest rate by .25. If you have been following me, I mention in my previous post that no matter what the FED does, the market should head higher. The red lines on my graph was to illustrate my previous post and as you can see i said that it should continue up, however I was expecting a...
So far still looks it follows 2007 script. We will keep tracking it.
Either we made the lows or one more push to get all the technical in the oversold and to get the majority of the crowd to throw in the towel..DON'T PUT ON YOUR SUPER BEAR FACE.... If we can make some type of higher lows then we should continue up..but lets see how this week ends and next week starts
IN THE LAST 3 DAYS - I CALLED THE FOLLOWING 160 POINTS THIS IS WHAT TRADING WITH CONFIDENCE LOOKS LIKE!!!!!!!!!! I WILL BE STARTING MY OWN EMAIL BASED WEBSITE SOON....IT WILL BE FREE AT THE START BUT THOSE OF YOU WHO SUPPORT ME AND SEND ME YOUR EMAIL.. I WILL GIVE A REDUCE/ SPECIAL RATE. EMAIL ME : SENTIMENTTIMINGNEWSLETTER@GMAIL.COM
Please support by clicking the link below... www.sentimenttiming.com I have a feeling that we might need a another good push down to get all the shorts out... that's one options or we have already ended this down move and will be going up ( making higher lows ) . PLEASE USE RISK MANAGEMENT WHEN TRADING!!!! THATS THE KEY TO WINNING
As anybody who has read my posts probably knows, I am not a big fan of earnings plays. As I have pointed out, they either go great (instant gratification) or terribly (several cycles of rolls to mitigate loss that tie up buying power). Me, I'm a bread-and-butter guy with a penchant for mechanical index ETF and TLT trades that supply a fairly constant level of...
The price for crude has not only been lower longer than many analysts foreseen, but prices have been volatile. With the Crude VIX (a measure of crude price volatility) well above historical range, four to five percent price swings are almost common place. The crude VIX (blue line) broke through multi-year highs as West Texas Intermediate crude fell through $65...
Sterling has been on a monster tear after mixed employment data out of the United Kingdom. Averages earnings beat expectations of 2.6 percent, printing a 2.9 percent. However, the U.K. did see a rise in unemployment even as the unemployment rate fell a tenth-percent. Traders are looking to front from any potential talk out of the Bank of England (BoE) that...
Anytime, when the front month contracts are expensive than the back month's. Any rally to the upside is to be taken with a grain of salt. Because, Market is pricing in more risk on short term contract than the long terms. And risk in the general market knows only one direction, which is ________. assuming you know the answer. I will leave that blank. Any rally...
Relationship of the VIX and S&P 500. Key areas to watch on are 44-37 range on the VIX and on the RSI 51. We will not see a sustained rally on the S&P500 until the Vix RSI fails through 51 while the Vix capped under 37 level. The market will need some time to work off the volatility surge if this Asian contagion is actually over. However the market should not...
I came up with this based on one of Tim West's publications from today. It seems that this indicator produces some really high quality signals when applied to the Vix itself, to trade S&P500 futures. Check it out, maybe you can come up with other variations of this technique. Seems like something I'd like to try asap. Good luck, Ivan.
In this chart I illustrate a tool that FX traders like me can use to gauge when to trade either GBJPY or USDJPY (or both) and in which direction, using the S&P500 chart, vix readings and the techniques outlined by Tim West in his charts (range expansion support, vix post shock s/r levels (level where a buying spree causes a 75% retrace in Vix, etc.). Every time...
I have published this before, but this shows more examples of how you analyze the market for "Smart Money Buyers" that you can rely on. First you have to wait for a spike up in VIX of at least 5 points, then you wait for a pullback of 75% of that VIX spike. Plot the movement from the price low to the level the market was when the 75% retracement level was...
Volatility traders over the last weeks have been seeing a "flattening" of volatility structure and have not been getting the returns they were expecting for contango trades. (If you want to see contango at work, pull up a 5 year chart of UVXY. Those losses? Contango.) These charts show what is happening. The VIX (short term volatility) is rising from its...
Because of contango, patterns on UVXY are hard to read because it is a bit like a fun house mirror - you get a completely warped and distorted view of supply / demand based price movement. But when contango slows down, the distortion clears a bit. Last August the market was coming off of a depressed VIX (it was in the 10s) and volatility crept back in. On your...