Pre-elections trading. ExplainedSP500 broke to the new highs. Volume is still very low and the Advance Decline Line doesn’t support this rise too. It is bearish. However, there is still a lot of momentum in this market. Likely we will see choppy trading with upside bias till the middle of September followed by a decline till the end of the month. Pay attention we are getting close to elections. With that in mind, I believe that pullback (if any) will be bought very fast. Besides, the Fed Funds forecast signals a rally coming at the end of September. The best thing we can do now is intraday trading. There is a chance for a swing trade, but only in a month from now.
Sp500short
Market moves down for 2 weeksWith fresh stock splits, tightening election polls, eviction madness about to start, more schools open, the Fed, Congressional inaction, COVID positivity rates ready to climb, and maybe football, The first 2 weeks in September will bump lower.
I am not using those events to justify the analysis but the catalyst could be in there somewhere. I am using enhanced Elliott Wave analysis for the following modeling and projections.
Intermediate wave 3 was strong, but was set to end. Initial forecast was for it to last around 42 days, it made it to 43 on Friday.
Intermediate wave 4 should last around 7-13 trading days. My specific target is 10.1 days based on my models. Wave A typically lasts 39% of the the overall length of the larger wave (Intermediate wave 4). Wave B typically lasts 25%, and wave C is 37%.
The price drop could be greater than 225 points, but my specific forecast is a drop to around 3310 or 199.23 points from the ATH. Wave A typically moves 74.5% of the overall drop. Wave B typically gains 45% points of the overall drop and wave C drops about 67%.
All told. I have wave A lasting about 3.9 days and dropping 149 points. Wave B could gain for 2.5 days and claw back 90 points before wave C drops 134 points over 3.7 days.
I have placed all of this on a 2 hour chart in order to track the movement better.
I am overall long for now, but will be short through September 11, 2020.
sell at 3449 with 3 tp within 48hsell #sp500 at 3449 with 3 tp within 48h ,so much overbough and #jacksonhole #symposium coming also there a bit euphoria with #china #tradedeal while it should be sell the rumour and #spx500 overperform #nasdaq #DowJones #usdjpy #eurusd #audusd #audjpy #uscad #xauusd #nzdusd
also it can bed much more down make 2 separate lot and take profit on the first at tp 2 as exemple and let run the other with a manual trailing stop,like every 10 pts you down your stop wich you placed a bit down from the entry point for secure gain and no lost
Short Signal TriggeredIt is my believe that TSLA is going to drop around 10% to a price of $1800 +/-20.
This is due to the bearish signal that is being generated today by the RSI (14 days ) which is clearly developing a bearish divergence and by the bearish candle formation that has been drawn in the last 3 days.
My intention is to open a short position and set a TGT1 around $1850 and observe the price action then I will place a SL around 2065.
FED Funds indicate big move is coming this autumnChoppy trading in SP500 continues. All declines were bought back quickly last week. It seems to be positive. However… Advance Decline Line doesn’t support this. It is negative in a short-term perspective. Based on cycle studies we can expect to get buy signal around 10 – 15 August. Till that time we will likely see more choppiness with a bias to the downside. I don’t think we are entering another wave of huge sell-off. We had a nice rally in this market and decline is just a normal pullback. GDP showed a big decline last week, but it turned to be positive for stocks as Powell said FED will do all to support the market. We have an interesting forecast based on FED Funds – a huge rally is coming at the end of September. Recent 2 years FED Funds has been one of the best indicators for swing traders. Let us see how it turns this time. For now, I keep focusing on very short-term trades.
sell at 10854 and tp under 10000sell at 10854 and tp under 10000
do with 2 lot
first lot cut in half of target like 10480
lot 2 made a stop loss at 10600 as exemple when he reach less than 10500
if you see the volatily very high coupled with a bed news.u can go down than 9950..just do a traling stop manulally
SPY: Elliot wave analysis: Big week ahead!Analyzing 4 HR chart of SPY: Counting the waves in a shorter timeframe makes it pretty clear that SPY has completed 5 impulse waves and is currently going through the corrective phase. Huge divergence on most momentum indicators, volume, and fundamentals can make the corrective wave C an extended one. Currently projecting a drop to 0.38 fib level ( 283) or 0.5 fib level ( 271). We may get a retracement back to 306/308 before we resume move. Either way, we need to see a clean break of 297 print level before we see any downside. This week promises to be eventful so stay hedged and trade smartly.
S&P500 In TroubleGet out while you can and take some profits. This week was the last chance to make the case for a bullish breakout. Uneasy news of new coronavirus cases, riots, and slower than communicated recovery. At minimum a correction to 3000, then it might pop again but faily to break the trendline. Once that happens, it's a deterioration of market conditions and confidence in a new bull market. To me, this confirms a bear market rally. Look out below!
Fear is building.Looks as though we turned the corner on fear last week with that island in the sky reversal.... seems as though the fear is building, and I don't see that fearing being quenched by the market manipulation efforts.
SP500 bounced off level, I short hereSP500 bounced off near level 3131, I short here.
Disclaimer: This is not financial or trading advice, it's just for entertainment and education.
S&P500 volatility analysis shortVolatility finally came back to the stock market last week. And, it looks like it’s going to stick around for a bit. It took two buy signals before stocks rallied in February. And, it took four VIX buy signals before the market finally bottomed in March and the recent “greatest rally of all time” got started. Traders should probably wait for at least a second VIX buy signal before trying to buy the dip.