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VIX CBOE Volatility Index

End of the End, 16 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Daily range of the S&P500 is coiling tighter together, forming a symmetrical triangle pattern (▶︎). Can you see it? That means price is about to make a move. It's the end of the end. ➤ Symmetrical triangles are symmetrical for one reason, the price movement out of the triangle is a 50/50 toss of a coin, up or down. There is no edge to be obtained from guessing which direction it will go. ➤ So relax like I have been by chewing on some good ol' bamboo and wait for price to resolve itself. That is when the action starts. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Enter the beginning of the beginning. P.S. For those of you following my Live Paper Testing (trading of individual stocks and multi-asset classes), take note that I'm shorting quite a number of stocks. Despite the market moving higher today most of those stocks fell. This reflects the funny market where a handful of mega tech stocks are holding up the index.
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
2
Dollar Got it's 50 day MA touch and should continue it's descentTraders, As you know everything is about the dollar rn. What it does determines what the rest of the U.S. market does. And, so far, what the U.S. market does has been helping us determine what Bitcoin will do. Bitcoin, being the lead dog, shows us what the remainder of the alt space will eventually do. This is how we follow the breadcrumbs to our next projected bull move. As you know if you have been following me for any length of time, I have been calling for a blow-off top in the U.S. stock markets. This will be followed by a more serious recession that very well could become hyper-inflationary in nature, meaning that it will take many, many more dollars to buy a thing. This "thing" would include anything from eggs to shares. The market is smart (but sometimes a little slow) and will eventually price this inflationary pressure (or dollar weakness in). When the dollar goes up, it's strong. It takes less dollars to buy a thing. So, markets generally go sideways or down. When the dollar is up and the VIX (fear index) is up, the markets almost always trend down. When the dollar is down and the VIX is down, the market will fly. The VIX is down currently. So now, we simply need to determine which way the dollar could continue. From my perspective, the overall trend remains descending. We have now touched the 50 day moving average, which, as you know, I had been hoping for for some time. The price movement is completed and we can now expect further downside and a retest of that larger Head and Shoulders neckline. Should that neckline break? Bye bye U.S. dollar. It is at this moment you will know the blow-off top has truly begun. We can expect new highs in our market to come before our recession. Best to you all in your trades during these times, Stew
TVC:DXYShort
by stewdamus
Entering SDOW is the ideaDIA daily went to a sell, waiting for price action to approach the P.O.M.O Position of maximum opportunity on DIA. With such a nice risk reward why not. My idea would be to play it via SDOW This short is riskier, Vix 1hr and 15min are R/R. DIA and SPY 1hrs went green. You just want to note the daily went to sell on DIA, waiting for it to retrace up to the pomo'y area for a small risk trade. Overall trading this way (waiting for a pomo that meets your bias) is about like a sore peter, you just can't beat it. AMEX:SDOW AMEX:DIA AMEX:SPY
AMEX:DIAShort
by lightningfreek
Stalemate, 12 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities are trading in a range within a range within another range in varying timeframes. It’s a stalemate. After the stalemate comes the party. I’m getting my outfit ready. 👗 ➤ Although equities are in a stalemate, other asset classes are not. GOLD looks to be in the early stages of breaking lower. EURUSD is already on the way down. I’m looking at this from a short-term trade opportunity. ➤ If you have seen my trading history you will notice plenty of flat spots where I am not involved in the equity market like now. Periods like this don't last very long. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Don't miss out on the Party! 🎉 EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - NEUTRAL ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
The Exception, 11 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ SeePI is out of the way and we are pretty much none-the-wiser. TLT representing long-term interest rates remain in a range and not giving anything away, equities is also trapped in a range. The only exception is the NASDAQ, it has broken above a trading range. ➤ Will it remain the exception? It may do as long as broad markets trade sideways or well supported. I doubt it will continue to outperform if markets begin to fall. ➤ In last week's daily note I talked about topping formations in the SPY in recent times. Currently, the price is testing the high. A failed test of the high (meaning we don't see a new high but a lower high) would be the likely trigger for a reasonably sized fall. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Stalking my prey... EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - NEUTRAL ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
UVXY Volatility Index ETFUVXY as shown in the 15 minute chart is slightly above the basis line on the Bollinger Bands as shown also on the BB indicator or Luxalgo. Price is slightly below the mean VWAP of the anchored VWAP situated in the fair value area as also confirmed by the volume profile and its POC line confluent with the VWAP bands. Given impending federal data reports and news, I expect volatility will rise. UVXY could have positive price action in the range of 10% in tomorrow's trading day which can be day traded or scalped.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by AwesomeAvani
Sell in May, 10 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Yawn!!! 🥱. That's all for today's description of price action. See you on SeePI Wednesday... ➤ Now I fully comprehend the adage "Sell in May and Go Away". Because nothing happens in May. May as well cash out and earn some juicy returns in a money market fund at 4 or 5% pa. ➤ Let's see if CPI numbers present some volatility (and oh that debt ceiling drumming is getting louder too) ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Trading is 99% boredom EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - NEUTRAL ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
SeePI, 9 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities changed little on Monday trade. It is probably digesting the price reactions from last week. It is also probably awaiting to see the CPI numbers on Wednesday. The data is released pre-market 1hr before US open so we may see some positioning ahead of the inflation number during Tuesday trade. ➤ To be honest I'm not expecting too much action on Wednesday either. This is because prices are trading within a range and I don't think the ranging activity is done. Furthermore, there is a distinct lack of movement in TLT, the 20yr US bond ETF. This is either because no one knows what's going on with interest rates over the long-term i.e. buyers/sellers are equally opposing each other or they think interest rates will stay at current levels for the foreseeable future. The comfounding economic data certaintly points to the latter. ➤ I'm yet to get a trade signal. We are confined to the sidelines until then. I'm hoping the CPI numbers will provide us with a trade opportunity. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Trading is patience. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - NEUTRAL ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
🟩 VIX is continuing to improveVIX DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY 📉 The VIX has experienced a dramatic decrease, which is crucial to observe as we shift from a bearish to a more favorable market. Similar to what occurred in December and at the start of the year, the 28 level serves as a warning signal, particularly after a substantial market movement. This indicates that the market may be overheating, and we should be on the lookout for a potential bear market. Throughout the recent bearish phase, the VIX remained elevated above the 28 level. SEEKING LOWER LEVELS 🎯 Ideally, we'd like to see the VIX return to lower levels. While occasional upticks are expected, it's important that they remain within the lower historical ranges. Lower volatility benefits the indices, but it's equally important for individual stocks to exhibit reduced volatility as wel
TVC:VIXLong
by TintinTrading
Dec VIX closing is very, very important!Monthly line charts are so simplistic; yet so important to analyze. If you've read my previous DOW posts you know we are closely following the 2000-2002 bear market cycle vs. any other bear market and this chart further confirms my thoughts. Notice how the VIX today (2017 to present) vs. the VIX 1994-2000 timeframe is diverging with the S&P. Both are making higher highs and higher lows until something breaks. In the 2000-2002 case we had the dot com bust (Rate of Change in very high risk/internet stocks plummeted) while today we have the Bond bust (Rate of Change within the bond market has plummeted). Towards the end of the VIX/S&P divergence (in the 2000-2002 case) the VIX ended up remaining "in trend" while the S&P lost about 46% over a 2 year period (see below chart). The VIX remaining "in-trend" for such a long period of time was a warning that something was going to break at some point and the indexes eventually lost a fair amount of value over a 2 year period. In sum...my thoughts: If we close Dec VIX below the blue dotted; Oct low will hold If we close Dec VIX above the blue dotted line; Oct low will NOT hold.
TVC:VIX
by Vixtine
38
Neither Here Nor There, 5 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Another day down, you'd start to think it's becoming a trend. It may be the start but as for now I've downgraded the Short-Term equity trend to Neutral - meaning it's trendless, neither here nor there. The reason for the trendless tag is that we have experienced a higher high and lower low in recent days - a mix of opposing trend definitions. ➤ Note the price gaps all over the place as indicated by the blue arrows. Today's price gap in the SPY warns of that "acceleration" top formation I described in yesterday's post. ➤ Interestingly, both my Primary and Secondary strategy gave exit signals and this has been executed. I currently hold no positions. It is reflective of the opposing forces. This was a nice hedge that helped to protect capital and delivered on the "diversifying" benefits of incorporating both strategies. ➤ Still, we suffered a loss on this hunt and we go hungry. The price action is developing into a familiar structure. If it plays out our way, I think we won't go hungry for long. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Trading is a battle between feast and famine. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - NEUTRAL ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPY
by mrstockyetoro
Topping Formations, 4 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Equities continued to sell-off but not aggressively. It wasn't the kind of impact we have had on previous interest rate decision days. That being said, futures are down further in Asian trade. ➤ Let's have a look at the last couple of topping formations of the SPY at previous peaks in Dec 2022 and Feb 2023. If we have just witnessed another peak we might be able to gain some insight on how this may play out in the immediate future. ➤ We saw two types of topping formations. Dec 2022 was a double-top with a failed upthrust at the second peak. Feb 2023 was a common topping process where there was a failed re-test of the high. ➤ The current "assumed" peak could be a replay of either scenarios as described. It can also be a third process where price continues to fall without any attempt to re-test the high. The price action signals a "rush for the doors". This is less common. It would be similar to the Aug 2022 peak. What we should expect to see is price gapping lower to reflect an acceleration downward. ➤ I remain long with a small position. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Have we peaked? May the 4th be with You. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
Bring Back the Vol, 3 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ Sharp drop in equities accompanied by a spike in the VIX. It seems the market didn't like the taste of abnormal low vol. It wanted things to get back to "normal". As a Trader, "normal" is good although sometimes we end up on the wrong side like today. Bring back the Volatility. ➤ The Strategy did as it should by halving the position size yesterday in anticipation that some level of downside may occur. I cut my long position further today upon another exit signal. My secondary strategy signaled a short trade. Overall I have a small long position going into US Interest Rate Decision/FOMC day. ➤ Before you ask, I have no view on the outcome of the interest rate decision and what may or may not happen. I don't spend much time on those fundamental aspects of the market. There are plenty of talking heads that will offer their opinion but only listen to those people who actually have a wager on the outcome. I wouldn't trust anyone who doesn't have skin in the game. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Looking to recoup some losses EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro
GOLD VS VIX -3/5/2023-• Gold is highly benefitting from the fear and uncertainty in the market which is likely to persist • Markets are again assuming a recession coming • Banking sector latest dilemma is adding to the fear sentiment • Rising interest rates, hard landing caused by FED continuous tightening policy along with signs of stagflation all add to the bullish price action seen in the commodities markets • Added the VIX (volatility/fear index) below Gold chart to try and visualize any correlation between them • Interesting to see that peaks in VIX index were usually accompanied by peaks and rallies with the Gold • As we are approaching the all time high at 2070 with price currently just above 2000 I would like to add my own interpretation on that • When Gold traded at 2070, VIX value was around 33 • We are only just above 2000 and the VIX is way lower than the previous higher level • If current factors and sentiment persist in the market, we might see the VIX trading back towards higher levels, sending the Gold way higher than 2070 • Note that VIX is up almost 11% in a single day at the time of writing Traders, if you like this idea please comment and like ✅ Here to answer all your questions, Good luck
TVC:GOLDLong
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
Reversal Time? 2 May 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈 ➤ An attempt to break above the Feb high fell flat. Literally. Equities ended where it started, slighty down from Friday close. It isn't a good look. ➤ Over the last few days, there has been a deceleration in the up move evidenced by the smaller candle sizes or price bars. It's like a car decelerating towards a known barrier ahead. It isn't confident that it can crash through the barrier or maybe it doesn't want to at all. ➤ I'm not here to question the car or in our case the market why or why not. I am here to best respond to what I can see from a short-term technical trading perspective. I therefore have cut my long position back to a moderate size. The chances for a price reversal is much higher and managing that risk is essential. There is still enough risk on the table to make good profits if the car decides to crash through but the car may indeed decide to go in reverse. ➤ Conclusion: 🐆 Perhaps this prey is too big to take down. EQUITY TREND: ⦿ Short-term (weeks) - UP ⦿ Medium-term (< 6 months) - UP ⦿ Long-term (>6 months) - DOWN
AMEX:SPYLong
by mrstockyetoro