iPath Select MLP ETN
29.22USDR
+0.43+1.49%
At close at Jul 18, 20:10 GMT
USD
No trades
ATMP trade ideas
Will VXX take off?This seems like a wedge/channel breakout, and that VXX is going to 55. We can see a breakout then retest of upper trend line. In terms of Elliott Wave, this could be a breakout from a corrective Wave B triangle, into a Wave C. Technical analysis isn't about being certain of events, it's just insight to it's playbook.
I threw this chart out to a guy on Twitter, so it's fairly light and face value- I didnt' goo in depth. We'll see how it goes!
Selling VXX call - Expiring 27 Jun 2020 Decided to sell covered VXX Calls as i'm pretty unsure about making Industry specific trades as it's very detached from the economy. But what I've learnt so far is that it is not a fact that the market needs to correlate with the economy.
Trading volatility seems like a good idea, as an exercise I have tried to justify two market scenarios.
Market Rises/Range Scenario
- Cities start slowly reopen
- Earnings has companies forecasting the worst of 2020. However investors seem optimistic/lukewarm
- CN could report positive economic news that will encourage positive vibes
- Europe could show positive recovery
- US weekly unemployment numbers are slowing down
- US second stimulus package (May)
- Positive vaccination news
- Lower income consumers are the most impacted. However, that won’t dent investors that deem key stocks as “cheap”
Market Crash
- Europe sinks into a clear recession
- Breakdown of second stimulus package
- CN hits a repeat lockdown or resurgence in virus
- FED keeps pushes dire warnings of economy and this becomes an early warning
- Credit card and mortgage defaults spiral (After Aug)
Trade Risk: $4710
Trade Reward: $1290 (27%)
Win Probability: 73.78%
ROLLING: VXX JUNE 16TH 12/17 SCV TO 29/45 SCV... for a .01/contract credit.
Notes: Rolling my deep in-the-money spread (See Post Below) to a setup with a break even around where the underlying is currently trading. Naturally, this dramatically increases buying power effect, as well as risk, since I'm widening from a five wide to a sixteen wide. Will look to narrow the spread via roll out or via roll-down of the long on approaching worthless.
Vxx is looking bullish.It's so interesting while the economy was so great and SPY struggle to get above 3000 now why shall I believe it's going higher? With the Fed anything is possible however I think the risk on the upside is greater with some possible pull back SPY.I think VXX could retest the high . The news is not talking about the trade war coming back.
Hedging my bearish stance with the VXXI decided to do a small hedge to mitigate my bearish stance specifically on my 15 May expiring TIF options.
- Sold Calls at a 40 Strike for 2.5 (6 Contracts)
- Covered my short by buying a call at 54 Strike for 0.62 (6 Contracts)
This gives me max earnings of around $1128.
- If the Market Crashes and TIF still doesn't move. My Visa and Expedia Shorts will come in to lock around +1.7K
- If Market stay or continues to range. I will lose a max of $9358. With my hedge saving me abit more than 10%
Best scenario for me is for the market to become bearish with TIFF following it below 15 May haha... sweat...