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Shanghai Gold (USD) Futures (Oct 2025)Shanghai Gold (USD) Futures (Oct 2025)Shanghai Gold (USD) Futures (Oct 2025)

Shanghai Gold (USD) Futures (Oct 2025)

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SGUV2025 trade ideas

Gold silver oil coffee12.10.24 there is some important follow-up on gold and silver. those markets have expanded. what this means is that trade location changes as well. when markets expand and contract this affects trade location for buyers and sellers. regarding coffee there is a two bar reversal pattern that suggests that the Market's going to trade lower a short position here with a small stop and then if we don't get stopped out we can make more judgments depending on how the market moves.
COMEX:GC1!
by ScottBogatin
Gold Futures Trade Idea Gold futures have broken out of multi-year resistance levels and are trading near all-time highs. After trending higher for most of 2024, the focus shifts to where prices will move in 2025 and the remaining weeks of the year. Several macroeconomic factors will influence gold's trajectory, including: 1. Geopolitical landscape 2. Interest rates and inflation outlook 3. Supply and demand dynamics In the next two weeks, significant data points and economic events will shape the market. Central banks worldwide are set to adjust interest rates. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 bps on December 18, 2024. Key considerations will include any shift in language about future rate cuts and the dot plot from the upcoming meeting. Additionally, the U.S. CPI report, due Wednesday, will be closely watched. Key Levels to Watch: Line in the Sand (LIS): 2673.80–2684.50 Resistance: 2740–2760 Support: 2552.50–2566.80 Three Possible Scenarios for Gold Futures Prices: 1. Bullish Break Above LIS: A breakout and sustained hold above the LIS could push prices higher toward resistance levels. This scenario might be driven by softer CPI data on Wednesday and the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, including potential future rate cuts. A lower inflation environment could provide further tailwinds for gold. 2. Pullback Toward Support: If prices break and hold below the LIS, clearing recent consolidation lows around 2630, a decline toward the support zone is likely. This scenario aligns with persistent inflation, leading to a "higher for longer" interest rate environment in 2025. Additionally, easing geopolitical tensions under the new U.S. administration could shift focus toward domestic policies, potentially reducing gold's safe-haven appeal. 3. Range-Bound Price Action: Gold prices could consolidate near current highs, trading within a range below all-time highs. This scenario reflects a lack of decisive inflows or outflows, with market participants waiting for clearer cues to shape the price trajectory in 2025. As the year concludes, the interplay between macroeconomic factors and technical levels will determine whether gold continues its upward momentum, retraces to support, or stabilizes in a range. Stay tuned for key economic releases to guide near-term price action. Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
COMEX:GC1!
by EdgeClear
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-9: Nothing PatternI'm visiting family most of this week and will be disrupted from my normal schedule for another 3+ days. Please be aware I may not be as available for questions/comments as I usually am. Please watch how the markets are extremely overbought at this moment and will likely fall into a pullback mode. I don't expect this to be a big pullback - but big enough that you should consider locking in profits before the move plays out. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
COMEX:GC1!Short
by BradMatheny
Gold December 4th the gold market is the guinea pig because there are some issues with my terminology that need to be clarified. I've been using some incorrect terminology when I use the term bull flag or Bear Flag and I looked it up and that made things worse so I explained here what I mean. also I know people will have problems with my terminology regarding 2 bar reversals. I discovered that pattern and I didn't get it from books but I know the pattern works because other people must be using it.... because it works. so I'm not inventing any tools I'm simply looking at patterns that are reversal patterns in the market that can happen for many reasons and the beautiful thing about a two-bar reversal is that I can use it with a daily chart and a four-hour chart. sometimes the daily chart closest at a high or near the high and that represents 1 bar.... and then the next bar on the opening price produces another bar and the pattern between yesterday's market and today's market May give me a 2 bar reversal. the pattern of that trade requires yesterday's bar and today's bar... so you have a two-bar reversal from a bar generating yesterday with a bar generated today. Oher times you have a 2 bar reversal within 1 day of trading. there is another point to this and that is that some of the best trades happen on the opening price which is a part of the current day and happens when most Traders are not following that market. what I'm saying is not complicated but it takes time to look at these markets and think about the market before you trade the market. this process takes time and you will learn when the conditions are a little more complex and involve opening price trades that you can get a feel for when you enter the market or not.... sometimes you need the market to move a little bit first before you commit.
COMEX:GC1!
by ScottBogatin
Gold Outlook for December 2024Sticking with my conviction that we have indeed capped the high for Gold for 2024 and have already fulfilled a 30% retracement back into the overall range. We could potentially be ranging for the remainder of the year. I'm anticipating major breakouts within Q1 of 2025. If gold decides to breakout of its current range prior to 2025, then I would be anticipating a buy-side manipulation to take price lower towards the equal lows inside of Q3 of 2024. Let me know if you have any comments or questions below, or just your overall thoughts as well. Bless.
COMEX_MINI:MGCG2025Short
by chaarate
Waiting for a breakout towards Demand/Supplyhere's my analysis of GC1, as you can see I've marked my Supply and Demand area where price will react to, and previously the market was in a downtrend and CHoC occurred which formed our HH and HL, and between these we have our small range which indicates that neither the Bulls or Bears are in control. My analysis shows that its best to wait for a breakout on the Highest High or on the Highest low then we can enter our trades, the price can breakout either way so it's best to wait, TP will either be Demand/Supply area, use H1 for candlestick confirmation
COMEX:GC1!
by StarleXtheTrader
Gold Futures: Current Analysis (30-11-2024)We are currently developing the impulse (wave C). The 13 MA is below the 55 MA, indicating a slowdown in the movement. In the RSI Difference indicator , the RSI is between the 13 and 55 SMAs and has failed to surpass the 55 SMA, signaling the continuation of the wave C. The final confirmation for this movement will be the 55 EMA turning downward. 🔍 Insights from Weekly Timeframe: Divergences and RSI positioning below both SMAs reinforce the likelihood of a continued downtrend.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Fractanomics
Bitcoin and Gold to Counter InflationConsidering how Gold and Bitcoin surged significantly in response to inflation when it peaked at 9% in June 2022, and given that they are still maintaining their high levels, it seems the fear of inflation is not yet over. Today, I will focus on Gold and strategies to manage this upward trend, which you can also apply to Bitcoin. Mirco Gold Futures & Options Ticker: MGC Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
1
What’s Flowing: Gold Short (CONTRACTION?)Gold futures are displaying a bearish trend as margins compress alongside a price decline. This contraction suggests a short-term downside continuation, making it a crucial moment for traders to monitor levels for potential retracement or further drops. Key Observations: 1. Price Action: Gold is trading near the lower boundaries of a consolidation zone, with resistance levels firmly capping upward moves. 2. Compression in Margins: As margins tighten, the market indicates decreasing volatility, creating a conducive environment for strategic short positions. Hedge Opportunity: For traders holding long Gold positions, hedging against further downside risk is now a practical solution. My Gold/Silver Inter-Market Spread Trading PAMM account offers a robust strategy to manage exposure and optimize returns through inter-market hedging techniques. Feel free to reach out to learn more about how to diversify and protect your Gold investments with minimal risk. Reach out for more information on the Gold/Silver Ratio Hedge!
COMEX:GC1!Short
by moneymagnateash
2
Rolling Correlations and Applications for Traders and Investors1. Introduction Markets are dynamic, and the relationships between assets are constantly shifting. Static correlation values, calculated over fixed periods, may fail to capture these changes, leading traders to miss critical insights. Rolling correlations, on the other hand, provide a continuous view of how correlations evolve over time, making them a powerful tool for dynamic market analysis. This article explores the concept of rolling correlations, illustrates key trends with examples like ZN (10-Year Treasuries), GC (Gold Futures), and 6J (Japanese Yen Futures), and discusses their practical applications for portfolio diversification, risk management, and timing market entries and exits. 2. Understanding Rolling Correlations o What Are Rolling Correlations? Rolling correlations measure the relationship between two assets over a moving window of time. By recalculating correlations at each step, traders can observe how asset relationships strengthen, weaken, or even reverse. For example, the rolling correlation between ZN and GC reveals periods of alignment (strong correlation) during economic uncertainty and divergence when driven by differing macro forces. o Why Rolling Correlations Matter: Capture dynamic changes in market relationships. Detect regime shifts, such as transitions from risk-on to risk-off sentiment. Provide context for recent price movements and their alignment with historical trends. o Impact of Window Length: The length of the rolling window (e.g., 63 days for daily, 26 weeks for weekly) impacts the sensitivity of correlations: Shorter Windows: Capture rapid changes but may introduce noise. Longer Windows: Smooth out fluctuations, focusing on sustained trends. 3. Case Study: ZN (Treasuries) vs GC (Gold Futures) Examining the rolling correlation between ZN and GC reveals valuable insights into their behavior as safe-haven assets: o Daily Rolling Correlation: High variability reflects the influence of short-term market drivers like inflation data or central bank announcements. Peaks in correlation align with periods of heightened risk aversion, such as in early 2020 during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. o Weekly Rolling Correlation: Provides a clearer view of their shared response to macroeconomic conditions. For example, the correlation strengthens during sustained inflationary periods when both assets are sought as hedges. o Monthly Rolling Correlation: Reflects structural trends, such as prolonged periods of monetary easing or tightening. Divergences, such as during mid-2023, may indicate unique demand drivers for each asset. These observations highlight how rolling correlations help traders understand the evolving relationship between key assets and their implications for broader market trends. 4. Applications of Rolling Correlations Rolling correlations are more than just an analytical tool; they offer practical applications for traders and investors: 1. Portfolio Diversification: By monitoring rolling correlations, traders can identify periods when traditionally uncorrelated assets start aligning, reducing diversification benefits. 2. Risk Management: Rolling correlations help traders detect concentration risks. For example, if ZN and 6J correlations remain persistently high, it could indicate overexposure to safe-haven assets. Conversely, weakening correlations may signal increasing portfolio diversification. 3. Timing Market Entry/Exit: Strengthening correlations can confirm macroeconomic trends, helping traders align their strategies with market sentiment. 5. Practical Insights for Traders Incorporating rolling correlation analysis into trading workflows can enhance decision-making: Shorter rolling windows (e.g., daily) are suitable for short-term traders, while longer windows (e.g., monthly) cater to long-term investors. Adjust portfolio weights dynamically based on correlation trends. Hedge risks by identifying assets with diverging rolling correlations (e.g., if ZN-GC correlations weaken, consider adding other uncorrelated assets). 6. Practical Example: Applying Rolling Correlations to Trading Decisions To illustrate the real-world application of rolling correlations, let’s analyze a hypothetical scenario involving ZN (Treasuries) and GC (Gold), and 6J (Yen Futures): 1. Portfolio Diversification: A trader holding ZN notices a decline in its rolling correlation with GC, indicating that the two assets are diverging in response to unique drivers. Adding GC to the portfolio during this period enhances diversification by reducing risk concentration. 2. Risk Management: During periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty (e.g., late 2022), rolling correlations between ZN and 6J rise sharply, indicating a shared safe-haven demand. Recognizing this, the trader reduces exposure to both assets to mitigate over-reliance on risk-off sentiment. 3. Market Entry/Exit Timing: Periods where the rolling correlation between ZN (Treasuries) and GC (Gold Futures) transitions from negative to positive signal that the two assets are potentially regaining their historical correlation after a phase of divergence. During these moments, traders can utilize a simple moving average (SMA) crossover on each asset to confirm synchronized directional movement. For instance, as shown in the main chart, the crossover highlights key points where both ZN and GC aligned directionally, allowing traders to confidently initiate positions based on this corroborative setup. This approach leverages both correlation dynamics and technical validation to align trades with prevailing market trends. These examples highlight how rolling correlations provide actionable insights that improve portfolio strategy, risk management, and trade timing. 7. Conclusion Rolling correlations offer a dynamic lens through which traders and investors can observe evolving market relationships. Unlike static correlations, rolling correlations adapt to shifting macroeconomic forces, revealing trends that might otherwise go unnoticed. By incorporating rolling correlations into their analysis, market participants can: Identify diversification opportunities and mitigate concentration risks. Detect early signs of market regime shifts. Align their portfolios with dominant trends to enhance performance. In a world of constant market changes, rolling correlations can be a powerful tool for navigating complexity and making smarter trading decisions. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
#202448 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold futures: Neutral. Bulls need a strong break above 2700 to test 2720 and the upper triangle line, above that is 2750 and if they break even that, no more resistance until 2800. Most bullish target I have left is 2900 but that’s too far to talk about right now. If bears break below 2630, it’s likely going down to 2560 again. Quote from last week: comment: Market overdid it a bit with the selling and since Monday there are no bears to be found. Measured move up gives us 2866 and if we reach that, 2900 is probably given. You can’t think bearish at all until we reach 2800 again. 5 very strong bull bars closing at the highs. Can’t get any stronger for the bulls. Right now we went from overbought to oversold to overbought. Some pullback is expected and it will likely be a great buying opportunity. comment: Talk about you can’t time the market. Pretty good call that was from the above outlook last week. Higher low, and lower high. Triangle on the daily, very bullish above and very bearish below. Not rocket science to read this. I do think bulls are slightly favored. current market cycle: Bull trend key levels: 2500 - 2900 bull case: My line in the sand was 2650 and low was 2630. Next stop for the bulls is 2700 and 2720. A break above the bear line opens the market up to 2800 again. That is all there is to it right now. Clear invalidation levels and breakout points to set alerts. Invalidation is below 2630. bear case: Bears had a pretty amazing day on Monday but the follow through was disappointing and so we have formed a triangle. Wait for the breakout to either side and hop along or play the current range. Invalidation is above 2750. outlook last week: short term: Max bullish if we stay above 2650. 2800 is my expectation and 2900 possible. → Last Sunday we traded 2712 and now we are at 2681. Missed the low by about 20 points but ok. Not the best outlook but I wrote that a pullback is expected and we got one. short term: Slightly bullish if we stay above 2630. Max bullish above 2750. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: Likely to close 2024 above 2800 but I do think the recent selling was the first hint that we will transition into a trading range soon. current swing trade: None chart update: Added bear trend line from the triangle.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
2024-12-10 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr gold - Bullish but only until 2740ish. Bulls broke strongly above 2700 and the triangle is dead. Next stop is previous resistance around 2743. I do expect a pullback first, since the channel is obvious. Chart shows the preferred way for me. comment : Bulls are in control again. My chart is very clear, so I won’t try to make stuff up in here. 2678 should not be broken again and next target for the bulls is 2743ish. I expect a pullback down to 2710 or even 2700 before another leg up. If we break above the current channel, we will likely print 2800 before end of Friday. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2680 - 2745 (above that is 2800 next) bull case: Chart tells the whole story for the bulls. Don’t make this more complicated as it is. Any pullback below 2710 is a decent buy with stop 2678. Invalidation is below 2678. bear case: Bears gave up once they could not reverse the market below 2670 again after y close and the early test down to 2683 in the EU session. Invalidation is above 2745. short term: Bullish. Look for longs near the lower channel line or 1h 20ema. medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-24: Likely to close 2024 above 2800 but I do think the recent selling was the first hint that we will transition into a trading range soon. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the double bottom near 2680.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by priceactiontds