USDMXN LongIt is true that DXY is bearish at the moment, but this pair has shown enough sign that it will shoot up.
1- a Morning star formed
2-a hammer formed
3-A bullish engulfing candle
4-trendline broken
U.S. Dollar / Mexican Peso
18.92880MXNR
−0.12255−0.64%
As of today at 15:04 GMT
MXN
No trades
USDMXN trade ideas
USDMXN Major long-term bullish break-out after 4 years!The USDMXN pair broke above the 4-year Falling Wedge and so far stopped the rise just before it tested the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The last time the pair had a similar long-term bullish break-out was on the August 01 11 break-out.
Following a 5-week consolidation, the price then extended the aggressive rise marginally above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result, we expect another strong bullish wave soon, and our Target is 21.6500 (exactly on the 0.618 Fib).
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USDMXN Short AnalysisLast week, the price of USDMXN rejected the significant psychological level of 19.00. From the COT index, we can observe that the pair has been muted for an extended period. However, I see value in buying MXN leading into July. 🌞
🔍 Analysis:
I expect the price to trade down to 16.50 before more consolidation.
There is a large imbalance at 17.13.
The previous swing high has been taken, indicating that buy stops have been taken. We can now expect a move downwards, aligning with seasonality patterns. 📅
📉 Trading Plan:
I'm waiting for the price to come back to 18.40 to enter a sell position.
Entry: 18.40
Stop Loss: Above the last swing high at 19.05
Targets: 17.50, 17.00, and 16.50 🎯
This strategy aligns with the current market dynamics and seasonal trends, making it a compelling opportunity. Let's see how it plays out! 📊
Happy Trading! 🚀
#USDMXN #Forex #TradingStrategy #TechnicalAnalysis #MXN
(USDMXN) Analyzing the Impact Mexican Peso Depreciation1994-2024 Past Trends and Future Projections
Assessment of Former Mexican Presidents' Management of Peso Depreciation Against the US Dollar
Ernesto Zedillo Ponce de León:
Presidential Period: December 1, 1994 – November 30, 2000
Depreciation Peak: $10.75 USD/MXN
Time to Peak: 1492 days
Summary: Zedillo's term saw significant economic challenges, including the aftermath of the 1994-peso crisis. Despite efforts to stabilize the economy, the peso depreciated considerably during his tenure, reaching a peak of $10.75 USD/MXN.
Vicente Fox Quesada:
Presidential Term: December 1, 2000 – November 30, 2006
Depreciation Peak: $11.70 USD/MXN
Time to Peak: 1249 days
Summary: Fox's administration experienced moderate depreciation of the peso, with a peak rate of $11.70 USD/MXN. His tenure was marked by efforts to improve economic stability and growth.
Felipe Calderón:
Presidential Term: December 1, 2006 – November 30, 2012
Depreciation Peak: $15.56 USD/MXN
Time to Peak: 852 days
Summary: Calderón's term saw a more pronounced depreciation of the peso, reaching a peak of $15.56 USD/MXN. Global economic instability and domestic issues influenced this significant depreciation.
Enrique Peña Nieto:
Presidential Term: December 1, 2012 – November 30, 2018
Depreciation Peak: $22.03 USD/MXN
Time to Peak: 1523 days
Summary: Peña Nieto's presidency experienced severe depreciation of the peso, with the exchange rate hitting $22.03 USD/MXN. Economic reforms and global market conditions contributed to this peak.
Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO)
Presidential Term: December 1, 2018 – November 30, 2024
Depreciation Peak: $25.77 USD/MXN
Time to Peak: 517 days
Summary: AMLO's administration saw a rapid depreciation of the peso, reaching $25.77 USD/MXN, influenced significantly by the economic impact of COVID-19.
Future Outlook: Claudia Sheinbaum (Predicted)
Presidential Term: December 1, 2024 – November 30, 2030
Predicted Peak Rate: $30.00-$34.00 USD/MXN
Predicted Time to Peak: 1126 days or so.
If the current upward trend in peso depreciation continues, an estimate can be made based on historical data from previous presidents. Here's a possible scenario:
Projection for Claudia Sheinbaum's Term
Average Time to Peak: Using the historical data, the average number of days to reach the peak depreciation can be calculated. The average is approximately 1126 days (1492 + 1249 + 852 + 1523 + 517 = 5633 / 5 = 1126.6).
Predicted Depreciation Peak: If the trend continues and considering the impact of recent trends, the peak could potentially surpass previous highs. Estimating conservatively, the peso could reach a new high, possibly around $30 USD/MXN or higher, depending on economic conditions.
This projection assumes that global and domestic economic factors continue to influence the peso similarly to past patterns. However, it is important to note that predictions can be highly uncertain and influenced by various unpredictable factors
The Bars Pattern (in red) is a visual representation of how the price could behave over the next six years. Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 44 - USDMXN - (14th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions.
A couple of things to note:
- I cannot see news events.
- I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range.
- I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks
In this session I will be analyzing USDMXN, starting from the 3-Month chart.
If you want to learn more, check out my TradingView profile.
USDMXN 18.50 will be support nowIntraday Update: The USDMXN has just squeezed higher towards 19.00 (likely a barrier there) ahead of the CPI and FOMC today as America time zone traders are getting in front of computers and closing any remaining shorts as the pair was comfortably above 18.50. Any dip back to 18.50 today may find buyers now.
I see a bump for the Mexican Peso and then a dive after summerI anticipate the antiglobalism movement will enrich Mexico for cheap labor (unless Trump gets elected then the Peso will melt down due to the tariffs) where China is already passing our own tariffs by exporting to Mexico where it gets a new shiny label and tariffs don't apply. I believe a billionaire has made moves to gather up the trucking and logistic companies in Mexico because of the growth. Afterwards, no matter what, the dollar TVC:DXY will soar to 140-160+ until itself too implodes leading to hyperinflation in the USA which will catalyze an opportunity to move to CBDC's based on social credit scores (negative interest rates).
I also see the TTM squeeze executing on all major TF's so a major move is coming!! Usually we see a bounce of the opposite side as a fake breakout, then a squeeze in the opposite direction lasting for 8 TF bars. Multiple consecutive TF's hint at a massive move and alignment
Trials and Elections: 3 Market-adjacent events to watch Trump and Hunter Biden Trials
Former U.S. President Donald Trump was convicted last week on all counts of falsifying business records. Trump faces sentencing in one month’s time on July 11. Each of the 34 felony counts could result in up to four years in prison, although first-time offenders (or ex-presidents) like Trump are rarely incarcerated.
Meanwhile, a jury was sworn in on Monday for a (show?) trial of Hunter Biden, son of President Joe Biden, on gun charges.
Mexican Election
The Mexican peso continues to fall sharply towards 18.0 per USD, its lowest since October 2023, following results indicating a supermajority win for the Moderna party and its allies in Congress. Claudia Sheinbaum, the Moderna party candidate, won the presidential election by a significant margin.
As noted in Reuters, "The peso is underperforming amid growing concerns that the governing coalition's supermajority in the lower house might lead to the implementation of non-market-friendly policies,".
Indian Election
The Indian rupee plunged past 83.5 per USD, nearing its record-low of 83.7 from April. This movement erased the sharp rally triggered by early vote tallies, as updated counts indicated that incumbent PM Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is likely to secure a much narrower victory than anticipated.
Amidst the election turmoil in the world's largest democracy, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy decision is also expected this week. In April 2024, the RBI maintained its benchmark repo rate at 6.5% for the seventh consecutive meeting.
almost 6% lower in 2 days may be enough for the MXNIntraday Update: The USDMXN has reached the 127% extension (close with a high at 18.1988) and intraday RSI's are very overbought which has prompted us to remove the Pattern in Play near term. Looking for dips back to 17.60/17.50 to be supportive in the days ahead.
