15 bets better than betting on Trump/Harris victory!

Nov 4

If you think markets will move significantly after the Election result read this article!

Let me help analyze this from a trading/investing perspective.

The key differences between these approaches:

1. Strangle Options Strategy:

- Has defined risk (maximum loss is premium paid)
- Based on measurable market movements
- Regulated through established financial markets
- Success depends on significant price movement in either direction
- Multiple exit opportunities before expiration
- Average expected profits shown in the table range from 53-320%

2. Election Markets:
- Binary outcome
- Current pricing suggests narrower potential returns
- Less liquidity than major stock options
- Single outcome date
- Not regulated in the same way as securities markets

I'd encourage focusing on the following:
1. Your risk tolerance
2. Your expertise in the chosen market
3. The regulatory framework you're comfortable operating within
4. Your ability to actively manage positions
5. Your overall investment strategy and goals

Nov 4

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This post will be updated every day!

Nov 5

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End of 2nd day!

Nov 6

Trade active

Nov 6

Trade closed: target reached

Nov 6

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Nov 6

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Nov 6

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So far 25% without being correct on direction in 2 days!

Nov 7

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Nov 7

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+50.3% profit while 11 out of 15 are positive! and 4 tickers had +100% profits!

Nov 7

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Nov 7

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Nov 7

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Nov 7

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Nov 7

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Nov 7

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103.6% in 2 days

Nov 7

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To choose between the election bets and the options strangles shown in the "SNIPER STRANGLE ai" table, let's break down the two types of potential returns:

### 1. Election Bets
- **Trump**: $1 payoff for every $58 bet. This implies a return of approximately 1.72% on your bet.
- **Kamala**: $0.42 payoff for every dollar bet, or a 42% return on your bet.

### 2. Options Strangles
From the table, each "Strangle Premium" represents the total cost of the strangle, and the "Expected % Profit" column shows the estimated percentage profit.

To compare:
- **Highest Expected % Profit**: *NFLX*, with a 320% expected profit.
- Other notable options include *META* (109%), *NVDA* (107%), and *XOM* (95%).

### Conclusion
Based purely on potential returns:
- The election bet on Kamala has a 42% return, which is lower than most of the options strangles with high expected returns.
- The NFLX strangle, for example, has a much higher expected profit (320%), which is significantly more attractive.

If your risk tolerance allows, **NFLX** or other options with high expected profits like *META* or *NVDA* would be a better choice than either election bet. However, options strangles are more volatile and complex than a straightforward election bet, so the choice depends on your comfort with the risks involved in options trading.

Nov 8

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Let me know what you think about this trading ideas?