BitcoinLong
BTC Halving Cycles Model: A Closer Look
Updated
If you've seen my previous ideas, you'll know that I trade on the halving cycle and I can prove mathematically that the cycles are getting longer, not just the block processing length, but also the bull run as well. I just want to take a second to point a few specific things out about my model, and talk about some updates I've recently made.
You'll notice the fib band rainbow that wasn't there before, if you've seen my previous charts as they've evolved on here. I believe that this log curve and these fib bands are a generally reliable way to forecast btc's price advancement.
Notably, look at the first halving. At the 133d point we peak at around 260$ before entering a 7 month long Bear/crab market correction that shed 73% of the value. Now, obviously, that was a much more infantile, volatile market, much less money being traded, but it's important because it has established a long term trend that has yet to be broken.
As it is, we've only broken into the 50 percentile range as far as downtrend this goes (less volatile, more strength, more mature), So we've still got a long way before real bearishness could set in. All of this downtrend has been crab market shakeout traps. Traps for bulls and bears and everyone in between.
If you notice the orange band where wave 1 tops in 2012, it's the same as where this has topped. We recently went and tested the blue bottom band, and you see the results, about 10k up in a week. We are back above the 1w50ma, a line that has typically spelled doom and gloom for btc in the past. As long as we stay above that I would remain bullish and be VERY careful with bearish leveraged trades unless you can catch a fast retrace or obvious trade (make sure to double check your confirmation bias for what you think is obvious though)
The halving cycles are getting longer. This means that price action has more time to move before it will hit it's highs and lows. If my calculation is correct the parabolic peak will be next year in the spring.
Things to keep an eye on: Mid October could be interesting. The 367 day price memory event has been confirmed in both the 2016 and the 2020 cycle, so if we are in an uptrend at that point, I think it would be safe to prepare a bit for bears to make some big moves. People will think that everything is over after that, until we finally ascend to the true peak.
Also, there's a chance this wave was "early". We have a lot of time until the projected cycle end, and even with my price memory idea in play, mid august-early September seemed like the more likley target. I still think those months will be strong, but in the meantime we could be in a giant trap still. The higher we go, and the stronger the PA is the less I worry about it, but this is a dangerous market, and traps can appear out of nowhere until we approach the ATH, or at least the trend line that you can draw down from it.
This is my plan, I've been sticking too it for a lot longer than I've had an account on TV, and it constantly evolves as new data is found. My model is designed to help people understand that this market is volatile, and it will do unthinkable things. I never get caught by the shakeout, and I want to help make sure others can have the same advantage.
You'll notice the fib band rainbow that wasn't there before, if you've seen my previous charts as they've evolved on here. I believe that this log curve and these fib bands are a generally reliable way to forecast btc's price advancement.
Notably, look at the first halving. At the 133d point we peak at around 260$ before entering a 7 month long Bear/crab market correction that shed 73% of the value. Now, obviously, that was a much more infantile, volatile market, much less money being traded, but it's important because it has established a long term trend that has yet to be broken.
As it is, we've only broken into the 50 percentile range as far as downtrend this goes (less volatile, more strength, more mature), So we've still got a long way before real bearishness could set in. All of this downtrend has been crab market shakeout traps. Traps for bulls and bears and everyone in between.
If you notice the orange band where wave 1 tops in 2012, it's the same as where this has topped. We recently went and tested the blue bottom band, and you see the results, about 10k up in a week. We are back above the 1w50ma, a line that has typically spelled doom and gloom for btc in the past. As long as we stay above that I would remain bullish and be VERY careful with bearish leveraged trades unless you can catch a fast retrace or obvious trade (make sure to double check your confirmation bias for what you think is obvious though)
The halving cycles are getting longer. This means that price action has more time to move before it will hit it's highs and lows. If my calculation is correct the parabolic peak will be next year in the spring.
Things to keep an eye on: Mid October could be interesting. The 367 day price memory event has been confirmed in both the 2016 and the 2020 cycle, so if we are in an uptrend at that point, I think it would be safe to prepare a bit for bears to make some big moves. People will think that everything is over after that, until we finally ascend to the true peak.
Also, there's a chance this wave was "early". We have a lot of time until the projected cycle end, and even with my price memory idea in play, mid august-early September seemed like the more likley target. I still think those months will be strong, but in the meantime we could be in a giant trap still. The higher we go, and the stronger the PA is the less I worry about it, but this is a dangerous market, and traps can appear out of nowhere until we approach the ATH, or at least the trend line that you can draw down from it.
This is my plan, I've been sticking too it for a lot longer than I've had an account on TV, and it constantly evolves as new data is found. My model is designed to help people understand that this market is volatile, and it will do unthinkable things. I never get caught by the shakeout, and I want to help make sure others can have the same advantage.
Note
BTW, price target for the top is around 180k-190k, according to the log curve when it's around that time period. Less if earlier, more if later.Note
Current price action demonstrates what I mean when I said that this wave up seemed "early" This is fine. This is healthy. We have to dump to pump sometimes.
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