$DIS - DISNEY - LONG SETUP USING CALLS - #tradingsignals

Dec 12, 2019

METHOD: Long DISNEY {price at entry 147.59} via:
+2 DIS 20 DEC 19 144 CALL @3.80 ; Trading with 0.21 of extrinsic value, well in the money.

STRATEGIES: Using DIS day chart:

• The 20/50 Mean green cloud contracts, and we can look for a new expanding cloud to form for a long.
  
• The Fisher Transform bounce signal appearing somewhat near the mean (after the reversion on the earnings bump).
  

TACTICS: The plan in terms of stock price:

• STOP is price < 144
  
• TGT1 153 scale; TGT2 157 to exit
  
• Trail option price to Break Even once stock price > 150; OR consider scaling as green cloud becomes large
  
• We may let the Fisher Transform and 20/50 mean together take us out technically for whatever we get win or lose.
  

NOTES:

• Not always do mean reversions get back to the mean in view.
  
• Depending on figuring, it could have touched some mean perfectly, but it isn't important.
  
• We look for the signals near the mean as we consider the mean elastic or one of many possible means.
  

Will update in comments,
B3
d^.^b

Dec 12, 2019

Trade active

Filled.

Dec 13, 2019

Note

Price is not continuing up today. Moved stop to the low of the day which is price = 146.50. Cutting any more losses from the week.

Dec 16, 2019

Note

Hung in there. Still holding and dumping on first sign of weakness Monday.

Dec 18, 2019

Trade active

Have to roll or bail this week. I sold ATM calls against these held ITM calls. This lowers my break even for the week to the current price... so from here at this losing point, it is actually a profit on decay if price goes sideways. If price looks to continue upward this week at any time, I will roll the spread.

Dec 19, 2019

Trade closed manually

Star Wars movie gets some pretty tough reviews. Rated second worst in the series just in front of the Jar-Jar debacle. -- I have chosen not to roll this sideways trade. Exiting for the current position PL which is -$75 loss; it expires tomorrow anyway with no real upside for me to hold.