DXY (USD) - JOURNAL - ACTIVE UPDATES for TVC:DXY by ZielIstDieAutarkie

My analysis today is an actively managed BLOG post looking at the current price of the DXY (USD).

> The post will be updated daily with comments and trade ideas to generate a series where you, the reader, can learn - ACTIVELY - from the analysis and decisions.

In the following analysis, I highlight a LONG scenario, focusing on the technical KEY points that will be relevant in the coming days.

> As soon as the temporary direction of the price emerges, I update the post accordingly, with entries, stop-loss & take-profit levels.

CAUTION IS CONTINUED.

The DXY still has not found its bottom; however, we are facing daily and weekly resistances in FX MAJOR - pairs, which could serve as relevant resistances.
> Once the ab-sale starts here, this will bring the necessary energy for the DXY to move up!

WHAT DO THE MAJORs HAVE - to do with the DXY!!!

To help you understand the relevance and composition of the "DXY Index", let's take a closer look at it.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is a ratio (index) that compares the value of the U.S. dollar using a basket of six currencies.

> EUR = 57.6
> JPY = 13.6 %
> GBP = 11.9 %
> CAD = 9.1 %
> SEK = 4.2 %
> CHF = 3.6 %

Despite all the reasons that argue for a LONG in the DXY, the price can break through existing levels.
> So you know which levels I am talking about, they are added as comments below the post.

# Positioning after confirmation of MAJORs = LONG.

If this idea and explanation added any value to you, I would be very happy to receive a review of it.

Thank you, and happy trading!

Note

Those levels shown will come into play if we see another leg down.

HTF - IMPORTANT LEVEL

HTF - SUPPORT ZONES

Note

UPDATE DAILY CHART

Note

POSITIVE NEWS

> 30 minutes ago, we got the new EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTORING INDEX data, which was positive for the USD = DXY.
> We nearly created a 4-hour - BULLISH ENGULFING - close, which got pushed down short before the candle close.
> Still we break out of the sideways range of the DXY, so we should see a further bullish move from the DXY and the entry of a correction in the EUR = MAJORs.

= DXY < LONG
= EUR < SHORT

Note

RESISTANCE LEVEL

Note

After today's LONDON - session executed a push-up, in the MAJORs, still no LL was made in the DXY.

This reflects, in my opinion, the degree of exhaustion that the MAJORs have reached and argues for a bullish DXY.

> Should we test the Lows one more time, we are very likely to break through in the DXY and run into the previously marked HTF supports.

Note

The DXY has found a little strength and almost reached the last higher low, which will now serve as resistance.

> We should see another run to this higher low after the small correction and confirm it - possibly this can be recaptured and used as a springboard for further highs.

Note

The daily closing candle has created a SUPPORTING SUPPLY ZONE.
> This is in addition to this Bullish candle another confirmation of the coming rise.
> Today in 3h 10 min the "Unemployment Claims" will be released, setting the tone in the DXY (USD) & EUR, until next week Monday.

For a complete confirmation of the thesis, we need another bullish daily candle, and then nothing should stand in the way of the LONG.

Trade closed: target reached

Note

The DXY has reached the VIOLET marked target zone and successfully broken through it per candle close (4 h).

In the following, one can expect further buying pressure, but it is important to wait and see.

> The price is at the bottom of the HTF channel and accordingly a very strong resistance.
> In addition, this resistance coincides with a HTF high-low, which is marked as MSB in the chart. (This was broken with a 4 h candle, but it takes several closes for this resistance to be gained as support).
> From here we must now wait and watch how the price reacts, future predictions are difficult at this point.

Despite this, there is hope that the DXY will continue to rise.
> The DXY is an index which is composed of the Major FX pairs.
> The EUR falls with 57.6% very strongly in the weight and makes a large part of the movements.
> This is just at a point where it will be difficult to catch = probably we will correct further in the EUR for the time being, which gives the DXY the option to rise further.

Note

The following chart should serve as an example of how much we are influenced by our subconscious.

It concerns here the DXY, which I represented in "INVERTED" form.

> In addition, the colors were taken from the candles, so that the greatest possible confusion arises and one can evaluate the situation neutrally.
> With different coloring in the chart and other approaches, you can put your previously formed opinion to the test.
> Try it out on your own and test your fixed opinion for its stability.

Note

Anyone who also wants to take the small SWINGs, or in case this was the maximum in the DXY, can now go in with the small SHORT positions.

We should see at least a small correction and test in the DXY up to this marked AREA.

Note

Just published are the new PMI data from France and Germany, which are both "NEGATIVE".
> For this reason, the upwards push continued earlier than expected.
> This may change again in 6h when the American PMI data will be released.

If the American PMI is positive, the sell-off will continue after the event.

Note

The American PMI data were more positive than negative, but not by much.
> For this reason, the price action was rather boring and the rise is continued slowly.

The following levels are the next resistance zones where we can expect a reaction.

Note

An hour ago, the "German ifo Business Climate" data was published, which, against expectations, showed poor results.
+ | USD (DXY)
- | EUR

In 5 hours, we will receive the American "CB Consumer Confidence" data, which could decide the next movement.
> However, tomorrow is "FOMC", so the market will most likely react more calmly to the new data than it normally would.

Tomorrow will then be the big landmark decision, so we can reassess from there.

Note

We received the new data from the EU Main Refinancing Rate, which was neutral.
> In the following, the "Monetary Policy Statement" was held, which predicted a very dark future for the EUR.
> For this reason, the correction in the USD ended and a strong rise occurred.

In the following chart, you can see all relevant support and resistance areas.
> The DXY - 4H close, was extremely bullish.

Note

The daily candle close will be bullish.
> Some news will come out about tomorrow, however, I personally can not imagine that this candle is defeated for now.
> In any case, this is a clear sign, for the still coming rise.
> The circled area has very strong resistances, which can be a difficult obstacle to take.

Note

INTRADAY - LEVEL UPDATE

Note

POSSIBLE INTRADAY - SCENARIOS

Note

The candle closing leaves it open to what the next week will look like.
> In the Daily TF's there's a lot of indecisiveness
> In the Weekly TF's it's similiar

DAILY CLOSE = INDECISIVE

WEEKLY CLOSE = INDECISIVE

2-WEEK CLOSE = RETEST

Note

4 H - SZENARIEN

Note

The monthly close has taken place, and the following candle was received.

> The reaction from the previously announced support zone looks phenomenal!
> We will most likely see another wick down, however the price will not give up momentum on the higher timeframes after this Bullish reaction.

Note

3 H - Bearish Engulfing - Sell Start

Note

We got the "ADP Non-Farm Employment Change" numbers from the USA, which were really positive for the USD.

With that, the USD dominance (DXY) will continue to rise until we see the next CPI data tomorrow.
= pressure on all other markets related to it

Note

HTF wise there is still room to climb.

Note

The market should show little volatility until today's news events:
> USD - Unemployment Claims (in 4 hours)
> USD - ISM Services PMI (in 6 hours)

There will be extreme volatility at these events, so caution is advised.

Note

USD - Unemployment Claims
= Neutral data release / we need to wait for the ISM for bias

Note

USD - ISM Services PMI
= Negative data release / the pressure on the DXY is high, and with that, the possibility for a correction got higher.

Note

All markets seem to be gathering liquidity right now and waiting.
= Ranges have formed, and we can say the direction only when a range is significantly broken, with confirmation of the range.

Tomorrow will be published 3x relevant American economic data, the results of which the market will wait with great anticipation.

> Average Hourly Earnings m/m
> Non-Farm Employment Change
> Unemployment Rate

Note

Mixed data print - as a consequence we should see a mixed market reaction and volatility over the next few hours.

> Average Hourly Earnings m/m
= PRO < USD
> Non-Farm Employment Change
= CONTRA > USD
> Unemployment Rate
= PRO < USD

Note

The DAY - candle close has turned out bearish:
> However, the candle itself reflects a DOJI - which in turn means indecision.
> Price has hit the 0.328 FIB (of the whole move), which is why I expect a Bullish reaction intra-day at the start of the week.
> The probability speaks rather for a further Ab-sale next week, however, the candle closure was generated only because of the event on Friday - therefore is still cautious announced, regarding BIAS change.

Note

A new ARTICLE, has been initiated:
<deleted>

Note

The DXY is currently collecting liquidity and will push a little bit to the upside.

Note

The volatility will continue to be slow because we have two major events at the end of this week:
> Thursday = CPI
> Friday = PPI

The market is waiting for the results of these events = there should be no big move until Thursday.

Note

DAILY CLOSE - BULLISH
> Still closed under the Resistance Line
> Today Intra-day correction and then continuation of upwards move

Note

Tomorrow are big impact news for the USD = CPI data
> Until that, the price should move slowly because the market is waiting for the release.

Note

DAILY CLOSE - INDECISIVE
> Still closed under the Resistance Line.
> Hanging men candle indicates reversal, but there wasn't enough volume intra-day to be anywhere significant.
> I'm sure that we will see today with the USD event, a significant direction move.
> In which direction - no one can predict, we need to wait for the data.

Note

USD - CPI + Unemployment Claims
= Negative data release / the pressure on the DXY is high, and with that, the possibility of a correction will come into play now.

Note

Tomorrow are big impact news for the USD = "PPI data" + "Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment" afterward
> Until that, the price should move slowly because the market is waiting for the release.

Note

Valid until CPI:

Note

< USD NEWS > PPI + CORE PPI
= Positive data release / the pressure on the DXY is thus less.
= Thus, the possibility of a further upward movement now comes into play.

Note

DAILY CLOSING PRICE = BULLISH

> The candle did not form a formation worth highlighting
= the only thing to note is the longer shadow at the bottom

> The "CLOSING COURSE" was below the HH of 2020 (102,903), which now serves as resistance.
> The HH of 2023 (102,041), will serve us in corrective behavior, as support.
> The "FIBONACCI-LEVEL" of the upward movement = 0.88 & 0.75/0.786 - could be successfully worked off next week with another movement.
> The "SUPPLY - ZONE" located above it serves as additional resistance.
> The MA (200) - serves as resistance at 103.350 points.
> The MA (5, 8, 20, 50, 100) - serve as support.

1 DAY = 4 HOURS x Six (ITD Price Action)

Note

To understand the direction we might go,
check out this other IDEA where I've highlighted the HTF-KEY areas and zones that are relevant for next week.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

New USD data will be published tomorrow:
> Core Retail Sales
> Empire State Manufacturing Index

This will bring back a lot of volatility into the market, which is currently missing.

Note

LEVEL VALID UNTIL PUBLICATION = USD DATA

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 2 HOURS

Note

USD data = POSITIVE:
> POSITIVE | Core retail sales
> POSITIVE | Retail sales m/m
> POSITIVE | Import Prices m/m
> NEGATIVE | Empire State Manufacturing Index

MEANS:
> DXY (USD) - RISING
> OTHER - FALLING

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

Tomorrow is the FOMC Meeting (USD) which will set the direction until the next.
> prepare your trades for this event, because it will cause random volatility

Note

DAILY CLOSING PRICE = BULLISH

> The candle formed a "HANGING MEN"
= this indicates an imminent trend reversal, which must be confirmed with another bearish candle closing price.

> The "CLOSING COURSE" occurred above the HH of 2020 (102.992), which now serves as support.
> The price has broken out of the downward trend channel and was able to confirm it as support with the candlestick close that occurred.
> The "DEMAND - ZONE" below it serves as additional support.
> The MA (200) - serves as resistance.
> The MA (5, 8, 20, 50, 100) - serves as support.

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> FOMC MEETING IN 2 HOURS <
= RANDOM VOLATILITY

Note

The "FOMC meeting" revealed that the U.S. Federal Reserve is very likely to want to continue its restrictive course.
> Furthermore, criticism regarding the approach is becoming louder and louder, as a monetary policy that is too tight would have very negative effects.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

DAILY CLOSING PRICE = BULLISH

> The candle did not form a formation worth highlighting
= the only thing to note is the longer shadow at the bottom

> The "CLOSING COURSE" occurred below the LH of 2023 (103,572) & the HH of 2017 (103,820), which now serve as resistances.
> The HH of 2020 (102,992), will serve us as support in case of corrective behavior.
> The "FIBONACCI LEVEL" of the upward movement = 0.88 - could be successfully worked off during the week with a further movement.
> The "DEMAND - ZONE" located below it serves as additional support.
> The MA (5, 8, 20, 50, 100, 200) - serve as support.
> The MA 200 was breached with the last daily close and will be tested during today's session.

1 DAY = 4 HOURS x Six (ITD Price Action)

Note

USD data released today was positive, supporting further upside for the DXY.
> This movement will put further selling pressure on all markets.

Note

To get an informed idea of what price levels could potentially be reached, I invite you to take a look at the following post. In it, I have marked the prominent key areas and zones of the higher timeframes (HTF) that could be of significant importance in the coming week.

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 3 HOURS

Note

The USD data released today was negative, supporting downside for the DXY.
> This movement will put less selling pressure on all markets.
> Still there is tomorrow more to come with the „Unemployment Claims“ which will manifest the decision a bit more.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 20 MIN

Note

The USD data released today turned out POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlating markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

HTF - DAY - SIGNIFICANT LEVEL FOR RESISTANCE

If the market shows a reaction and confirms this in the weekly start and ITD, we could go SHORT - for anyone with a wide SL and high risk appetite can try to go SHORT at the MEGAPHONE TOP.
(see HTF JOURNAL)

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASED IN 3 HOURS ="Revised UoM Consumer Confidence"<
> NEWS RELEASED IN 4 HOURS ="Fed Chair Powell Speaks"<

Note

The USD data released today was NEGATIVE and supports a FALLING DXY.
> However, we have the Jackson Hole today, which has higher weighting than the data released.
> This takes selling pressure out of the FX majors and correlated markets.
= If the falling scenario in the DXY is confirmed, one can position LONG until the next NEWS release - in his selected pair.
= Personally, I am still weighted on the SHORT side.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

To get an informed idea of what price levels could potentially be reached, I invite you to take a look at the following post. In it, I have marked the prominent key areas and zones of the higher timeframes (HTF) that could be of significant importance in the coming week.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

Tomorrow will be published some USD - NEWS, which will give the market - bias.
> Over today, we have seen almost no movement, which confirms the relevance of tomorrow's news.
> With high probability, no market movement will happen until the publication.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! ATTENTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 1 HOUR ="S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 2 HOURS ="CB Consumer Confidence"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 2 HOURS ="JOLTS Job Openings"<

Note

USD data released today was NEGATIVE and supports a FALLLENDING DXY.
> This takes the selling pressure out of the FX majors and correlated markets.
= Should the falling scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself LONG - in one's selected pair - until the next NEWS release.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! ATTENTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 4 HOURS ="ADP Non-Farm Employment Change"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 4 HOURS ="Prelim GDP q/q"<

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! ATTENTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 5 HOURS ="ADP Non-Farm Employment Change"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 5 HOURS ="Prelim GDP q/q"<

Until the data is released, we can expect SLOW - "Price Action".

Note

USD data released today was POSITIVE & supportive of a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! ATTENTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 3 HOURS ="Non-Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 5 HOURS ="ISM Manufacturing PMI<

Note

The USD data released today were mostly POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

The first relevant news will be published on Wednesday,
which is why we can assume that the share price will continue in the adopted direction until then. (= LONG)

Note

To get an informed idea of what price levels could potentially be reached, I invite you to take a look at the following post. In it, I have marked the prominent key areas and zones of the higher timeframes (HTF) that could be of significant importance in the coming week.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

The "Price Action" was very low during the day, which is why the market hardly moved = the last uploaded levels are still valid until a significant movement.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

Tomorrow we will get the new USD NEWS "ISM Services PMI", so the market will be quieter until the release.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! ATTENTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 1 HOUR ="ISM Services PMI"<

Note

The USD data released today were mostly POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 4 HOURS =„Unemployment Claims“<

Note

The USD data released today were mostly POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

No significant NEWS will be released today, so the "Price Action" will be steady and slow.

Note

Over the day, there was nearly no movement because of a missing NEWS event.
> The weekly Candle will close soon and will tell us the drive plan for the next week.

Note

On Wednesday, the NEWS (USD) releases start until Friday.
> Until then, we can expect a slow "Price Action".
> The major market participants will most likely wait for the new data until they actively participate in the market action.

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 1 HOURS <

Note

The USD data released today were mostly POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

! CAUTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 15 MINUTES ="Main refinancing rate (EUR)"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 30 MINUTES ="Core PPI m/m (USD)"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 30 MINUTES ="Unemployment Claims (USD)"<

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! CAUTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 1.5 HOURS ="Empire State Manufacturing Index"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 3 HOURS ="Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment<

Note

To get an informed idea of what price levels could potentially be reached, I invite you to take a look at the following post. In it, I have marked the prominent key areas and zones of the higher timeframes (HTF) that could be of significant importance in the coming week.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE - VALID UNTIL TODAY'S "FOMC" EVENT

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN - 3 HOURS ="FOMC"<

Note

The USD data released today turned out NEUTRAL & are thus already priced in the market.
= This means that we have to wait for the next "NEWS release" to get a clear direction.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

LEVEL-UPDATE - GÜLTIG BIS ZUM HEUTIGEN NEWS-EVENT

Note

! CAUTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 1 HOUR ="Unemployment Claims"<

Note

The USD data released today were mostly POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 3 HOURS ="Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI<

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 45 MINUTES =„ISM Manufacturing PMI“<

Note

Unfortunately, I made a mistake and displayed next week's "Dates & News".
> the announced appointment has not taken place for this reason and the post before is irrelevant.

Disclaimer