Recession Incoming
Japan is the first victim of this latest round of expansion and contraction of interest rates by global central banks as they fall into recession.
msn.com/en-us/money/markets/japan-unexpectedly-slips-into-recession-germany-now-worlds-third-biggest-economy/ar-BB1iiqCo
Recent history shows that when global central banks raise interest rates, the peak in rates mark the end of the credit expansion cycle resulting in recessions and stock market declines.
The last three peaks in interest rates were in:
2000 - dotcom bust, -50% in stock markets
2008 - housing and financial crisis, -57% in stock markets
2020 - pandemic, -35% in stock markets
Average market decline is -47% and stocks don't bottom until interest rates start to bottom.
Each previous rate peak was accompanied with record stock prices, record home prices, record personal debt with rising delinquencies and new lows in unemployment. We currently have all of those in 2024.
msn.com/en-us/money/markets/japan-unexpectedly-slips-into-recession-germany-now-worlds-third-biggest-economy/ar-BB1iiqCo
Recent history shows that when global central banks raise interest rates, the peak in rates mark the end of the credit expansion cycle resulting in recessions and stock market declines.
The last three peaks in interest rates were in:
2000 - dotcom bust, -50% in stock markets
2008 - housing and financial crisis, -57% in stock markets
2020 - pandemic, -35% in stock markets
Average market decline is -47% and stocks don't bottom until interest rates start to bottom.
Each previous rate peak was accompanied with record stock prices, record home prices, record personal debt with rising delinquencies and new lows in unemployment. We currently have all of those in 2024.
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