S&P500 / SPX - JOURNAL - ACTIVE SERIES for OANDA:SPX500USD by ZielIstDieAutarkie

This is an ACTIVELY managed BLOG CONTRIBUTION, which will be UPDATED DAILY with comments and trade ideas.

| This way, I generate a SERIES for you, where you, as a reader, can - ACTIVELY - learn from the analyses, decisions, & interactions |

In the following analysis, I highlight a possible SHORT scenario in the > SPX <

We focus on the KEY technical points and KEY areas that will be relevant in the coming days.

As soon as the temporary direction of the price emerges, I will update the post accordingly, with entries, stop-loss & take-profit levels.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION *

Despite the existing inflation and interest rate situation, the S&P 500 rises to ever new heights - Justified = NO.

In most HTF - price action indicators, one can still not detect a momentum loss, which would be urgently needed.

In the 4-h chart, one can find a clear bearish divergence, with which, with the existing S&R levels, a nice trade could be justified.

In the intraday, it thus requires a SHORT - SWING - entry, but caution is advised - it is still not unlikely that we could still see an upward movement.

# Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = SHORT

*Additional information will be added as comments to this blog to give you the most value possible.

If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would appreciate a COMMENT or BOOST very much.

Thank you, and happy trading!

Note

POSSIBLE INTRADAY - SCENARIOS

Trade active

ENTRY 1
- has been triggered!

Note

The candle closing leaves it open to what the next week will look like.
> In the Daily TF's there's a bullish candle and indecisiveness
> In the Weekly TF's we have indecisiveness and little bit bullishness

DAILY (1) CLOSE = BULLISH (No engulfing)

DAILY (2-3) CLOSE = INDECISIVE

WEEKLY CLOSE = BULLISH / INDECISIVE

2-WEEK CLOSE = BULLISH / INDECISIVE

Note

Further push to the upside before the possible SHORT scenario could occur.

Bearish divergence still exists and is forming more and more extreme:

Note

4h - CHART - Bearisch Engulfing

Note

The monthly close has taken place, and the following candle was received.

> The candle looks anything but confirmation for the SHORT thesis, however, all momentum indicators are out of air.
> The Bullish candle has finally turned into a Doji, reflecting the onset of investor uncertainty.
> We could see a correction here before we see another move higher.

Note

3 H - Bearish Engulfing - Short continuation?

Note

1 D - BEARISH ENGULFING

Note

We got the "ADP Non-Farm Employment Change" numbers from the USA, which were really positive for the USD.

With that, the USD dominance (DXY) will continue to rise until we see the next CPI data tomorrow.
= pressure on all other markets related to it

Note

HTF wise there is still room to decline.

Note

The market should show little volatility until today's news events:
> USD - Unemployment Claims (in 4 hours)
> USD - ISM Services PMI (in 6 hours)

There will be extreme volatility at these events, so caution is advised.

Note

USD - Unemployment Claims
= Neutral data release / we need to wait for the ISM for bias

Note

USD - ISM Services PMI
= Negative data release / the pressure on the DXY is high, and with that, the possibility for a correction got higher.

Note

All markets seem to be gathering liquidity right now and waiting.
= Ranges have formed, and we can say the direction only when a range is significantly broken, with confirmation of the range.

Tomorrow will be published 3x relevant American economic data, the results of which the market will wait with great anticipation.

> Average Hourly Earnings m/m
> Non-Farm Employment Change
> Unemployment Rate

Note

Mixed data print - as a consequence we should see a mixed market reaction and volatility over the next few hours.

> Average Hourly Earnings m/m
= PRO < USD
> Non-Farm Employment Change
= CONTRA > USD
> Unemployment Rate
= PRO < USD

Note

The DAY - candle close has turned out bearish:
> However, the candle in itself reflects a DOJI - which in turn implies indecision.
> The price hit the 0.328 FIB (of the whole move), which is why I assume a Bearish reaction in the intra-day, at the beginning of the week.
> The probability speaks rather for a further down-sale next week, however, the candle close was generated only because of the event on Friday - therefore, caution is still announced, regarding BIAS change.
> Intra-day we have an extremely bearish 4 h candle, which is why the further down-sale thesis is very likely.

Note

Let's see if we have enough momentum for a breakthrough.

Note

The volatility will continue to be slow because we have two major events at the end of this week:
> Thursday = CPI
> Friday = PPI

The market is waiting for the results of these events = there should be no big move until Thursday.

Note

DAILY CLOSE - BEARISH
> Closed under the Top-Trend Line from the channel
> Today Intra-day recovery and then continuation of downwards move or Bullish
> Long shadow shows a lot of buying pressure

Note

Lost again the RANGE:

Note

Tomorrow are big impact news for the USD = CPI data
> Until that, the price should move slowly because the market is waiting for the release.

Note

DAILY CLOSE - BEARISH
> Closed under the previous Bearish and Bullish candle close = support broken
> Bearish Doji candle indicates indecisiveness - still the previos point is important.
> I'm sure that we will see today with the USD event, a significant direction move.
> In which direction - no one can predict, we need to wait for the data.

Note

USD - CPI + Unemployment Claims
= Negative data release / the pressure on the DXY is high, and with that, the possibility of an upside move will come into play now.

Note

Tomorrow are big impact news for the USD = "PPI data" + "Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment" afterward
> Until that, the price should move slowly because the market is waiting for the release.

Note

Valid until CPI:

Note

< USD NEWS > PPI + CORE PPI
= Positive data release / the pressure on the DXY is thus less.
= This now brings the possibility of a further downward movement into play.

Note

DAILY - CLOSING PRICE = UNDECIDED

> The candle formed a "DOJI"
= this indicates indecision and needs another candle to close.

> The "CLOSE" occurred above the HH of 2023 (4463.4), which now serves as support.
> In addition, we are at the upper edge of a HTF trend channel, whose confirmation failed at the last attempt.
= You can read and watch more details about this in my series "SPX / USD - HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIES".

> The "GOLDEN POCKET FIBONACCI-LEVEL" of the corrective move = 0.618 - 0.65 - was successfully worked off
> The MA (100, 200) - serve as support.
> The MA (5, 8, 20, 50) - serve as resistance.

1 DAY = 4 HOURS x Six (ITD Price Action)

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

To understand the direction we might go,
check out this other IDEA where I've highlighted the HTF-KEY areas and zones that are relevant for next week.

Note

New USD data will be published tomorrow:
> Core Retail Sales
> Empire State Manufacturing Index

This will bring back a lot of volatility into the market, which is currently missing.

Note

LEVEL VALID UNTIL PUBLICATION = USD DATA

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 2 HOURS

Note

USD data = POSITIVE:
> POSITIVE | Core retail sales
> POSITIVE | Retail sales m/m
> POSITIVE | Import Prices m/m
> NEGATIVE | Empire State Manufacturing Index

MEANS:
> DXY (USD) - RISING
> OTHER - FALLING

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

Tomorrow is the FOMC Meeting (USD) which will set the direction until the next.
> prepare your trades for this event, because it will cause random volatility

Note

DAILY CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH

> The candle formed a "BEARISH ENGULFING"
= this indicates a continuation of the sell-off and confirms the bullish momentum in the DXY (USD) and its data published yesterday.

> The "CLOSING COURSE" occurred below the HH of 2023 (4463.4), which now serves as resistance.
> We will see a small recovery in today's intra-day, ab-sale will continue tomorrow with high probability.
> The MA (100, 200) - serve as support.
> The MA (5, 8, 20, 50, 100, 200) - serve as resistance.

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> FOMC MEETING IN 2 HOURS <
= RANDOM VOLATILITY

Note

The "FOMC meeting" revealed that the U.S. Federal Reserve is very likely to want to continue its restrictive course.
> Furthermore, criticism regarding the approach is becoming louder and louder, as a monetary policy that is too tight would have very negative effects.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

DAILY CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH

> the candle did not form a formation worth highlighting
= the only thing to note is the longer wick above the opening price

> The "CLOSE" price was below the HH of 2023 (4463.4), which was confirmed as resistance.
> We experience additional resistance from the uptrend channel parallel line (turquoise), which was breached and needs to be confirmed in the ITD.
= You can read and watch more details about this in my series "SPX / USD - HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIES".

> The "FIBONACCI-LEVEL" of the downward movement = 0.328 & 0.88 - have been successfully worked through and do NOT serve as support for ANY further closing price.
> The "DEMAND - ZONE" located below serves as support.
> The MA (100, 200) - serve as support.
> The MA (5, 8, 20, 50) - serve as resistance.

1 DAY = 4 HOURS x Six (ITD Price Action)

Note

USD data released today was positive, supporting further upside for the DXY.
> This movement will put further selling pressure on all markets.

Note

To get an informed idea of what price levels could potentially be reached, I invite you to take a look at the following post. In it, I have marked the prominent key areas and zones of the higher timeframes (HTF) that could be of significant importance in the coming week.

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 3 HOURS

Note

The USD data released today was negative, supporting downside for the DXY.
> This movement will put less selling pressure on all markets.
> Still there is tomorrow more to come with the „Unemployment Claims“ which will manifest the decision a bit more.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 20 MIN

Note

The USD data released today turned out POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlating markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

HTF - DAY - SIGNIFICANT BEARISH ENGULFING

The market will run up today because the sellers are exhausted (gathering liquidity). Because of the very strong - bearish engulfing - we can expect further strong down-sale the following days (next week).

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASED IN 3 HOURS ="Revised UoM Consumer Confidence"<
> NEWS RELEASED IN 4 HOURS ="Fed Chair Powell Speaks"<

Note

The USD data released today was NEGATIVE and supports a FALLING DXY.
> However, we have the Jackson Hole today, which has higher weighting than the data released.
> This takes selling pressure out of the FX majors and correlated markets.
= If the falling scenario in the DXY is confirmed, one can position LONG until the next NEWS release - in his selected pair.
= Personally, I am still weighted on the SHORT side.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

To get an informed idea of what price levels could potentially be reached, I invite you to take a look at the following post. In it, I have marked the prominent key areas and zones of the higher timeframes (HTF) that could be of significant importance in the coming week.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

Tomorrow will be published some USD - NEWS, which will give the market - bias.
> Over today, we have seen almost no movement, which confirms the relevance of tomorrow's news.
> With high probability, no market movement will happen until the publication.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! ATTENTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 1 HOUR ="S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 2 HOURS ="CB Consumer Confidence"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 2 HOURS ="JOLTS Job Openings"<

Note

USD data released today was NEGATIVE and supports a FALLLENDING DXY.
> This takes the selling pressure out of the FX majors and correlated markets.
= Should the falling scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself LONG - in one's selected pair - until the next NEWS release.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! ATTENTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 4 HOURS ="ADP Non-Farm Employment Change"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 4 HOURS ="Prelim GDP q/q"<

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! ATTENTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 5 HOURS ="ADP Non-Farm Employment Change"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 5 HOURS ="Prelim GDP q/q"<

Until the data is released, we can expect SLOW - "Price Action".

Note

USD data released today was POSITIVE & supportive of a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! ATTENTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 3 HOURS ="Non-Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 5 HOURS ="ISM Manufacturing PMI<

Note

The USD data released today were mostly POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

The first relevant news will be published on Wednesday,
which is why we can assume that the share price will continue in the adopted direction until then. (= SHORT)

Note

To get an informed idea of what price levels could potentially be reached, I invite you to take a look at the following post. In it, I have marked the prominent key areas and zones of the higher timeframes (HTF) that could be of significant importance in the coming week.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

The "Price Action" was very low during the day, which is why the market hardly moved = the last uploaded levels are still valid until a significant movement.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

Tomorrow we will get the new USD NEWS "ISM Services PMI", so the market will be quieter until the release.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! ATTENTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 1 HOUR ="ISM Services PMI"<

Note

The USD data released today were mostly POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 4 HOURS =„Unemployment Claims“<

Note

The USD data released today were mostly POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

No significant NEWS will be released today, so the "Price Action" will be steady and slow.

Note

Over the day, there was nearly no movement because of a missing NEWS event.
> The weekly Candle will close soon and will tell us the drive plan for the next week.

Note

On Wednesday, the NEWS (USD) releases start until Friday.
> Until then, we can expect a slow "Price Action".
> The major market participants will most likely wait for the new data until they actively participate in the market action.

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 1 HOURS <

Note

The USD data released today were mostly POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

! CAUTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 15 MINUTES ="Main refinancing rate (EUR)"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 30 MINUTES ="Core PPI m/m (USD)"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 30 MINUTES ="Unemployment Claims (USD)"<

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! CAUTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 1.5 HOURS ="Empire State Manufacturing Index"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 3 HOURS ="Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment<

Note

To get an informed idea of what price levels could potentially be reached, I invite you to take a look at the following post. In it, I have marked the prominent key areas and zones of the higher timeframes (HTF) that could be of significant importance in the coming week.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE - VALID UNTIL TODAY'S "FOMC" EVENT

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN - 3 HOURS ="FOMC"<

Note

The USD data released today turned out NEUTRAL & are thus already priced in the market.
= This means that we have to wait for the next "NEWS release" to get a clear direction.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

LEVEL-UPDATE - GÜLTIG BIS ZUM HEUTIGEN NEWS-EVENT

Note

! CAUTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 1 HOUR ="Unemployment Claims"<

Note

The USD data released today were mostly POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 3 HOURS ="Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI<

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 45 MINUTES =„ISM Manufacturing PMI“<

Note

Unfortunately, I made a mistake and displayed next week's "Dates & News".
> the announced appointment has not taken place for this reason and the post before is irrelevant.

Disclaimer