The Market Overall - Journal

Apr 11

SPX (SPY) is my 'overall market' instrument which is why i have used it for this analysis.

Given:

• FED remains the primary determinant for overall market movement
  
• Drawdown 1 aligned with RSI MA cross-over
  
• Duration of Bull Run 2 is 'overbought' per RSI
  
• 50W MA (White) is extrapolated-projected (White dashed)
  

It is noteworthy that:

1. SPX / SPY failed to reach 50D MA (Gray) on Bull Run 2, whereas it had on its Bull Run 1
   
2. RSI approaches its MA
   
3. A Multi-month Drawdown (like Drawdown 1) would align with the June FOMC Minutes
   

Expectations:

• Price Continues Down
  
• SPY ~50DMA (gray) resist and fails, or simply fail. Subsequent retest(s) would fail.
  
• Disregard price closes above ~50DMA w/out RSI confirm (close above its MA)
  

Trade Instrument:

SPY Bear Call Spread (Credit)
16-20DTE
45-60DTE

Apr 11

Note

Added Expectation:

RSI Falls below its MA soon. Date of Post 4.11.24