Oil focus on EIA data and OPEC+ meeting

Dec 2

USOIL increased slightly during the Asian trading session on Monday (December 2), trading around 68.30 USD/barrel. Market volatility has continued to decrease and we need to wait for new changes in fundamental factors to shape the short-term trend.

This week we will focus on EIA inventory data and the OPEC+ meeting. At the same time, this week will release US non-farm data. If non-farm data continues to strengthen, it will continue to put pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which will be detrimental to rising oil prices.
Last week, as the geopolitical situation eased, pressure on the supply side eased and the market is now expecting that this OPEC+ meeting is expected to be postponed and increased production will support oil prices.

On the geopolitical side, there are no significant new points. Lebanon's official news agency said on Friday that four Israeli tanks had entered Lebanese border villages. The ceasefire, which took effect last Wednesday, has reduced oil's hedging premium and sent oil prices tumbling despite accusations of ceasefire violations between the two sides.

Although there are still many potential risks, the conflict in the Middle East has not disrupted oil supplies and oil supplies are expected to be more abundant in 2025. The International Energy Agency believes that there is a surplus of supply. is expected to exceed 1 million barrels/day, equivalent to more than 1% of global production.
OPEC+ is expected to decide to continue extending production cuts at the upcoming meeting. With stagnant demand and oversupply, OPEC will face an uphill battle if it wants to push up oil prices.

On the daily chart, USOIL The main long-term trend is still down with the price channel as the main trend, pressure from EMA21 and horizontal resistance levels around the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement point sent to readers in previous publications. .
In the short term, WTI crude oil has enough room to continue falling with a target of around 66.44USD in the short term, more than 65.28USD.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is also maintaining activity below or around the 50 level, which is considered a bearish signal with the target being the oversold area.

As long as WTI crude oil remains at EMA21, it still has a bearish short-term technical outlook, and the trend from the price channel continues to trend in the long term.

In the current daily chart, WTI crude oil has a downward trend with notable points listed as follows.
Support: 66.44 – 65.28USD
Resistance: 69.51 – 70.54USD

Dec 9

Note

USOIL continued to fall within the descending channel and closed below both EMAs, suggesting further downside potential.

Dec 9

Note