XAUUSD - Buy Again 75% Prob - Another NY Sell Off Over Night
Probability Score:
Given the technical pullback, but strong fundamental and macroeconomic factors still supporting gold.
The probability of a continued bullish move in gold a score of 75 out of 100. There's still upside potential, but short-term corrections are likely.
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1. Recent Market Action (NY Session Profit Taking)
As you mentioned, NY traders have been driving gold down, and this is likely due to profit-taking. This is common near the end of a strong bullish move, where traders cash out at short-term highs. If price returns to previous levels and pushes higher, this can indicate bullish strength despite the temporary pullback.
2. Technical Indicators
FTLMA Bands: You pointed out that gold has been trading outside the FTLMA bands, indicating an overbought condition. When price moves outside these bands, a pullback is typical, and the fact that the price returned suggests that the bullish momentum may still be intact after profit-taking.
Support and Resistance: Gold has held well above key support levels in recent days. If it breaks back into previous highs, it could signal continuation of the bullish trend.
3. Fundamentals and Sentiment
Interest Rates and Inflation: Central banks globally are likely to cut rates in the coming months, which is bullish for gold. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it more attractive to investors.
Safe Haven Demand: Geopolitical uncertainty (e.g., Middle East tensions, China-U.S. trade concerns) and inflation fears still drive safe-haven demand for gold, which tends to support upward price movements.
U.S. Dollar: The USD has been fluctuating, but if it weakens due to expected rate cuts or economic slowdown, gold typically benefits as it's priced in USD. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for foreign buyers, increasing demand.
4. Market Sentiment
The recent pullback is more about short-term profit-taking than a fundamental change in the trend. When profit-taking is followed by recovery to previous levels, it suggests a continued bullish bias.
5. Fundamental Changes?
Nothing Major Has Changed in the underlying fundamentals. Central banks are still in a rate-cutting cycle, inflation fears remain, and global uncertainties haven’t subsided. All of these continue to make the case for gold as a long-term buy, especially in a low-rate environment.
Given the technical pullback, but strong fundamental and macroeconomic factors still supporting gold.
The probability of a continued bullish move in gold a score of 75 out of 100. There's still upside potential, but short-term corrections are likely.
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1. Recent Market Action (NY Session Profit Taking)
As you mentioned, NY traders have been driving gold down, and this is likely due to profit-taking. This is common near the end of a strong bullish move, where traders cash out at short-term highs. If price returns to previous levels and pushes higher, this can indicate bullish strength despite the temporary pullback.
2. Technical Indicators
FTLMA Bands: You pointed out that gold has been trading outside the FTLMA bands, indicating an overbought condition. When price moves outside these bands, a pullback is typical, and the fact that the price returned suggests that the bullish momentum may still be intact after profit-taking.
Support and Resistance: Gold has held well above key support levels in recent days. If it breaks back into previous highs, it could signal continuation of the bullish trend.
3. Fundamentals and Sentiment
Interest Rates and Inflation: Central banks globally are likely to cut rates in the coming months, which is bullish for gold. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it more attractive to investors.
Safe Haven Demand: Geopolitical uncertainty (e.g., Middle East tensions, China-U.S. trade concerns) and inflation fears still drive safe-haven demand for gold, which tends to support upward price movements.
U.S. Dollar: The USD has been fluctuating, but if it weakens due to expected rate cuts or economic slowdown, gold typically benefits as it's priced in USD. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for foreign buyers, increasing demand.
4. Market Sentiment
The recent pullback is more about short-term profit-taking than a fundamental change in the trend. When profit-taking is followed by recovery to previous levels, it suggests a continued bullish bias.
5. Fundamental Changes?
Nothing Major Has Changed in the underlying fundamentals. Central banks are still in a rate-cutting cycle, inflation fears remain, and global uncertainties haven’t subsided. All of these continue to make the case for gold as a long-term buy, especially in a low-rate environment.
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