XAU / USD - JOURNAL - ACTIVE SERIES for OANDA:XAUUSD by ZielIstDieAutarkie

This is an ACTIVELY managed BLOG CONTRIBUTION, which will be UPDATED DAILY with comments and trade ideas.

| This way, I generate a SERIES for you, where you, as a reader, can - ACTIVELY - learn from the analyses, decisions, & interactions |

In the following analysis, I highlight a possible SHORT scenario in the > XAUUSD <

We focus on the KEY technical points and KEY areas that will be relevant in the coming days.

As soon as the temporary direction of the price emerges, I will update the post accordingly, with entries, stop-loss & take-profit levels.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION *

After several attempts to break the 2075.00 USD mark, this endeavor continues to be unsuccessful.

Momentum loss can be seen in most price action indicators, which is reflected on the higher-time frames.

Since mid-2021, an HTF trend channel has formed, which was broken for the first time in March this year. We are currently in a struggling to hold this breakout or slide back into an ab-sale.

The area currently being fought over is the Higher High from 2011, which is at $1921.07. (KEY horizontal)

Intraday, this calls for a SHORT - SWING - entry, but caution is advised - it is still not unlikely that we could still see an upside move.

# Positioning after confirmation of this thesis = SHORT

*Additional information will be added as comments to this blog to give you the most value possible.

If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would appreciate a COMMENT or BOOST very much.

Thank you, and happy trading!

Note

POSSIBLE INTRADAY - SCENARIOS

Note

The candle closing leaves it open to what the next week will look like.
> In the Daily TF's there's a retest and indecisiveness
> In the Weekly TF's we have also only indecisiveness

DAILY (1) CLOSE = RETEST

DAILY (2-3) CLOSE = INDECISIVE

WEEKLY CLOSE = INDECISIVE

2-WEEK CLOSE = INDECISIVE

Note

Short term LONG option:

Note

Trade active

LONG profit realized (150 PIPs) and the first SHORT position opened.

Note

The monthly close has taken place, and the following candle was received.

> The reaction from the "KEY HORIZONTAL" (TOP / 2011) looks phenomenal!
> We will most likely see another wick down, however, after this Bullish reaction, the price will regain the missing momentum on the Higher time levels if necessary.
> The candle is a "Bullish Engulfing" variant regardless of the shadows, suggesting further upside.
> However, we will certainly see a correction here, which is what the idea is pursuing your benefit with.

Note

HTF Channel High - Hold as Support - Maybe we'll see another upside push

Note

2x DAILY BEARISH ENGULFING - Clear Sell

Note

We got the "ADP Non-Farm Employment Change" numbers from the USA, which were really positive for the USD.

With that, the USD dominance (DXY) will continue to rise until we see the next CPI data tomorrow.
= pressure on all other markets related to it

Note

HTF wise there is still room to decline.

Note

The market should show little volatility until today's news events:
> USD - Unemployment Claims (in 4 hours)
> USD - ISM Services PMI (in 6 hours)

There will be extreme volatility at these events, so caution is advised.

Note

USD - Unemployment Claims
= Neutral data release / we need to wait for the ISM for bias

Note

USD - ISM Services PMI
= Negative data release / the pressure on the DXY is high, and with that, the possibility for a correction got higher.

Note

All markets seem to be gathering liquidity right now and waiting.
= Ranges have formed, and we can say the direction only when a range is significantly broken, with confirmation of the range.

Tomorrow will be published 3x relevant American economic data, the results of which the market will wait with great anticipation.

> Average Hourly Earnings m/m
> Non-Farm Employment Change
> Unemployment Rate

Note

Mixed data print - as a consequence we should see a mixed market reaction and volatility over the next few hours.

> Average Hourly Earnings m/m
= PRO < USD
> Non-Farm Employment Change
= CONTRA > USD
> Unemployment Rate
= PRO < USD

Note

The DAY - candle close has turned out Bullish:
> However, the candle in itself reflects a DOJI - which in turn implies indecision.
> The candle close was below the "HTF - MSB", which serves as resistance.
> The price hit the 0.328 FIB (of the whole move), which is why I assume a Bearish reaction in the intra-day, at the beginning of the week.
> The probability speaks rather for a further down-sale next week, however, the candle close was generated only because of the event on Friday - therefore, caution is still announced, regarding BIAS change.

Note

We're back in the RANGE:

Note

Nothing changed - we're still in the range.

Note

The volatility will continue to be slow because we have two major events at the end of this week:
> Thursday = CPI
> Friday = PPI

The market is waiting for the results of these events = there should be no big move until Thursday.

Note

The following chart link is a new BLOG CONTRIBUTION of my "HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIES".

In this, we look at the "XAU / USD" from the higher time intervals and build according to the same concept, a formative and pioneering article.
> As soon as candle closes, which suggest a temporary direction of the price in the intra-day, I create a separate article, which will be announced over the following.

Note

DAILY CLOSE - BEARISH
> Closed above the HH-Support from 2011
> Today Intra-day recovery and then continuation of downwards move or Doji

Note

Tomorrow are big impact news for the USD = CPI data
> Until that, the price should move slowly because the market is waiting for the release.

Note

DAILY CLOSE - BEARISH
> Another close in the DAILY Demand Zone = no impact of Support anymore
> Bearish candle indicates more sell pressure = long wick on the upside after opening, then continuation of selling.
> I'm sure that we will see today with the USD event, a significant direction move.
> In which direction - no one can predict, we need to wait for the data.

Note

USD - CPI + Unemployment Claims
= Negative data release / the pressure on the DXY is high, and with that, the possibility of an upside move will come into play now.

Note

Tomorrow are big impact news for the USD = "PPI data" + "Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment" afterward
> Until that, the price should move slowly because the market is waiting for the release.

Note

Valid until CPI:

Note

< USD NEWS > PPI + CORE PPI
= Positive data release / the pressure on the DXY is thus less.
= This now brings the possibility of a further downward movement into play.

Note

DAILY CLOSING PRICE = BULLISH

> The candle formed an "INVERTED HAMMER"
= this indicates an imminent trend reversal, which must be confirmed with a bullish candle closing price. (2nd in a row = no bias).

> The "CLOSING COURSE" occurred below the ATH of 2011 (1921.070), which now serves as resistance.
> In addition, we are at HTF support (trend channel centerline), which now serves as support.
= You can read and watch more details about this in my series "XAU / USD - HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIES".

> The "FIBONACCI-LEVEL" of the corrective movement = 0.786 - was successfully worked through
> The MA (5, 8, 20, 50, 100) - serve as resistance.
> The MA (200) - serves as support at 1900 USD.

1 DAY = 4 HOURS x Six (ITD Price Action)

Note

To understand the direction we might go,
check out this other IDEA where I've highlighted the HTF-KEY areas and zones that are relevant for next week.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

New USD data will be published tomorrow:
> Core Retail Sales
> Empire State Manufacturing Index

This will bring back a lot of volatility into the market, which is currently missing.

Note

LEVEL VALID UNTIL PUBLICATION = USD DATA

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 2 HOURS

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USD data = POSITIVE:
> POSITIVE | Core retail sales
> POSITIVE | Retail sales m/m
> POSITIVE | Import Prices m/m
> NEGATIVE | Empire State Manufacturing Index

MEANS:
> DXY (USD) - RISING
> OTHER - FALLING

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

Tomorrow is the FOMC Meeting (USD) which will set the direction until the next.
> prepare your trades for this event, because it will cause random volatility

Note

DAILY CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH

> The candle did not form a formation worth highlighting
= it should be noted that the last candle closing low (market structure) was broken with the close.

> The "CLOSE" occurred below the HTF trend channel top, which now serves as resistance.
> The "DEMAND - ZONE" was successfully worked through and no longer serves as additional support.
> The MA (5, 8, 20, 50, 100, 200) - serve as resistance.

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> FOMC MEETING IN 2 HOURS <
= RANDOM VOLATILITY

Note

The "FOMC meeting" revealed that the U.S. Federal Reserve is very likely to want to continue its restrictive course.
> Furthermore, criticism regarding the approach is becoming louder and louder, as a monetary policy that is too tight would have very negative effects.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

DAILY CLOSING PRICE = BEARISH

> the candle did not form a formation worth highlighting
= note that there is no shadow on the candle = very Bearish

> The "CLOSING COURSE" occurred in the HTF sideways trend channel, whose upper trend line serves as resistance.
= You can read and watch more details about this in my series "XAU / USD - HTF JOURNAL - WEEKLY SERIES".

> The "FIBONACCI-LEVEL" of the downward movement = 0.618 & 0.65 - have been successfully worked through and do NOT serve as support for ANY further closing price.
> The "DEMAND - ZONE" located below it serves as support.
> The MA (5, 8, 20, 50, 100, 200) - serve as resistance.

1 DAY = 4 HOURS x Six (ITD Price Action)

Note

USD data released today was positive, supporting further upside for the DXY.
> This movement will put further selling pressure on all markets.

Note

To get an informed idea of what price levels could potentially be reached, I invite you to take a look at the following post. In it, I have marked the prominent key areas and zones of the higher timeframes (HTF) that could be of significant importance in the coming week.

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 3 HOURS

Note

The USD data released today was negative, supporting downside for the DXY.
> This movement will put less selling pressure on all markets.
> Still there is tomorrow more to come with the „Unemployment Claims“ which will manifest the decision a bit more.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 20 MIN

Note

The USD data released today turned out POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlating markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASED IN 3 HOURS ="Revised UoM Consumer Confidence"<
> NEWS RELEASED IN 4 HOURS ="Fed Chair Powell Speaks"<

Note

The USD data released today was NEGATIVE and supports a FALLING DXY.
> However, we have the Jackson Hole today, which has higher weighting than the data released.
> This takes selling pressure out of the FX majors and correlated markets.
= If the falling scenario in the DXY is confirmed, one can position LONG until the next NEWS release - in his selected pair.
= Personally, I am still weighted on the SHORT side.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

To get an informed idea of what price levels could potentially be reached, I invite you to take a look at the following post. In it, I have marked the prominent key areas and zones of the higher timeframes (HTF) that could be of significant importance in the coming week.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

Tomorrow will be published some USD - NEWS, which will give the market - bias.
> Over today, we have seen almost no movement, which confirms the relevance of tomorrow's news.
> With high probability, no market movement will happen until the publication.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! ATTENTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 1 HOUR ="S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 2 HOURS ="CB Consumer Confidence"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 2 HOURS ="JOLTS Job Openings"<

Note

USD data released today was NEGATIVE and supports a FALLLENDING DXY.
> This takes the selling pressure out of the FX majors and correlated markets.
= Should the falling scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself LONG - in one's selected pair - until the next NEWS release.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! ATTENTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 4 HOURS ="ADP Non-Farm Employment Change"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 4 HOURS ="Prelim GDP q/q"<

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! ATTENTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 5 HOURS ="ADP Non-Farm Employment Change"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 5 HOURS ="Prelim GDP q/q"<

Until the data is released, we can expect SLOW - "Price Action".

Note

USD data released today was POSITIVE & supportive of a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! ATTENTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 3 HOURS ="Non-Farm Employment Change & Unemployment Rate"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 5 HOURS ="ISM Manufacturing PMI<

Note

The USD data released today were mostly POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

The first relevant news will be published on Wednesday,
which is why we can assume that the share price will continue in the adopted direction until then. (= SHORT)

Note

To get an informed idea of what price levels could potentially be reached, I invite you to take a look at the following post. In it, I have marked the prominent key areas and zones of the higher timeframes (HTF) that could be of significant importance in the coming week.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

The "Price Action" was very low during the day, which is why the market hardly moved = the last uploaded levels are still valid until a significant movement.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

Tomorrow we will get the new USD NEWS "ISM Services PMI", so the market will be quieter until the release.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! ATTENTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 1 HOUR ="ISM Services PMI"<

Note

The USD data released today were mostly POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 4 HOURS =„Unemployment Claims“<

Note

The USD data released today were mostly POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

No significant NEWS will be released today, so the "Price Action" will be steady and slow.

Note

Over the day, there was nearly no movement because of a missing NEWS event.
> The weekly Candle will close soon and will tell us the drive plan for the next week.

Note

On Wednesday, the NEWS (USD) releases start until Friday.
> Until then, we can expect a slow "Price Action".
> The major market participants will most likely wait for the new data until they actively participate in the market action.

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 1 HOURS <

Note

The USD data released today were mostly POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

! CAUTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 15 MINUTES ="Main refinancing rate (EUR)"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 30 MINUTES ="Core PPI m/m (USD)"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 30 MINUTES ="Unemployment Claims (USD)"<

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

! CAUTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 1.5 HOURS ="Empire State Manufacturing Index"<
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 3 HOURS ="Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment<

Note

To get an informed idea of what price levels could potentially be reached, I invite you to take a look at the following post. In it, I have marked the prominent key areas and zones of the higher timeframes (HTF) that could be of significant importance in the coming week.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE - VALID UNTIL TODAY'S "FOMC" EVENT

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN - 3 HOURS ="FOMC"<

Note

The USD data released today turned out NEUTRAL & are thus already priced in the market.
= This means that we have to wait for the next "NEWS release" to get a clear direction.

Note

LEVEL UPDATE

Note

LEVEL UPDATE - VALID UNTIL TODAYS NEWS EVENT

Note

! CAUTION !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 1 HOUR ="Unemployment Claims"<

Note

The USD data released today were mostly POSITIVE & support a > RISING < DXY!

= This exerts further > SELLING PRESSURE < in the FX majors & correlated markets.
= Should the RISING scenario in the DXY be confirmed, one can position oneself SHORT until the next NEWS release (in one's selected pair).

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS PUBLICATION IN - 3 HOURS ="Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI<

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> NEWS RELEASE IN 45 MINUTES =„ISM Manufacturing PMI“<

Note

Unfortunately, I made a mistake and displayed next week's "Dates & News".
> the announced appointment has not taken place for this reason and the post before is irrelevant.

Note

! CAUTION ADVISED !
> News Release in – 4 HOURS (USD) -:- CB CONSUMER CONFIDENCE -:-

Note

| RESULT INFLUENCE |
> The published data turned out -:- NEGATIVE -:- for the USD.
> This removes, from the FX majors & correlated markets, the selling pressure "TEMPORARY".

* As soon as the weakness in the DXY is confirmed, one can position -:- LONG -:- until the next NEWS release. *

Disclaimer