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It's been a while since I made an indicator and explained it, so I'd like to take the time to introduce and explain something I heard a long time ago.
(Original text)
I made purchases at m-signal 1W in yesterday's fall as I see it rose above ha-low and closed above m-signals. It looks like m-signals can't prevent traps. Now I'm losing money again. I think it's better to make purchases when RSI is below 30. I don't want to feed market makers, somehow it happens over and over.
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Looking at the above, it seems that the purchase (LONG) was made when the price rose above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W, 1D chart and then started to fall.
If we check this on the 30m chart, it is expected that the purchase (LONG) was made near the section indicated by the circle section.
I said that it would have been much better to buy (LONG) when RSI was below 30, but when RSI was below 30, it refers to the section from February 25 to March 1, so I think it's regret due to the loss.
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If you look at what I explained as an idea, I said that you need to get support in the section marked with a circle to continue the upward trend.
And, I said that support is important near the HA-Low indicator when it falls.
Therefore, if it falls in the section marked with a circle, you should enter a sell (SHORT) position.
However, if you do not see a downward trend, you should trade based on whether there is support in the HA-Low indicator.
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To check for support, you need to check the movement for at least 1-3 days.
Therefore, checking for support is a difficult and tedious task.
Since most futures transactions are made on time frame charts below the 1D chart, you cannot check for support for 1-3 days.
Therefore, you need to check the movement at the support and resistance points you want to trade and respond accordingly.
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The coin market is a market where trend trading is good.
Therefore, it is important to know what the current trend is.
It is better to think of the basic trend based on the trend of the 1D chart.
The current trend of the 1D chart is a downtrend.
Therefore, the SHORT position can be said to be the main position.
As mentioned earlier, in order to turn into an uptrend, support must be received within the range indicated by the circle.
If not, it is likely to continue the downtrend again.
Since the HA-Low indicator has been newly formed, the 89253.9 point is the point where a new trading strategy can be created.
If it is not supported by the HA-Low indicator, it is likely to lead to a stepwise downtrend, so you should also think about a countermeasure for this.
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What we want to know through chart analysis is the trading point, that is, the support and resistance points.
You should decide whether to start trading depending on whether there is support at the support and resistance points.
Even if you start trading properly at the support and resistance points you want, you must also think about how to respond to a loss cut.
If you cannot think of a response plan for a loss cut, it is better not to trade at all.
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Indicators are only reference materials for your decisions, not absolute.
- The M-Signal indicator on the 1D, 1W, and 1M charts is an indicator for viewing trends,
- The HA-Low and HA-High indicators correspond to points for creating trading strategies.
The creation of the HA-Low indicator means that it has risen from the low range, and if it is supported by the HA-Low indicator, it is the time to buy.
If it does not, and it falls, there is a possibility of a stepwise decline, so you should think about a response plan for this.
The creation of the HA-High indicator means that it has fallen from the high range, and if it is supported by the HA-High indicator, there is a possibility of a full-scale upward trend.
If not, it may fall until it meets the HA-Low indicator, so you should think about a countermeasure for this.
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If the price is maintained near the StochRSI 50 indicator on the 1D chart, it is expected to lead to an increase to rise above the HA-Low indicator on the 1D chart.
At this time, if it rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D and 1W charts, it is likely to lead to an attempt to rise near 94827.9.
If not, it is likely to end as a rebound.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful trade.
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Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Use RSI Like a GoldmanYou might be wondering, do the traders at Goldman Sachs use the Relative Strength Index (RSI)? The answer is, perhaps they do, and perhaps they don’t. However, based on my experience, I can confidently say that even the most seasoned and professional traders rely on RSI from time to time.
While it may not be their sole tool for decision-making, it’s often included in their broader strategy due to its effectiveness in identifying overbought or oversold conditions in the market. RSI is one of many technical indicators that can serve as a helpful signal in navigating market trends, and even the best traders find it useful on occasion.
When trading with technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), having a clear and structured approach is crucial to maximizing its effectiveness. While RSI can be a powerful tool for identifying potential trend reversals, it’s essential to understand the right conditions and context in which to use it.
Below are some key principles and guidelines that can help you apply RSI more effectively in your trading strategy. Whether you’re a swing trader or a day trader, these tips can help you avoid common pitfalls and make more informed decisions in the market.
⚙️ Keep Settings Simple
Keep the RSI settings minimal to avoid confusion. Stick to the standard 14-period lookback, which is widely used and reliable for most market conditions.
📉📈 Ensure Divergence Occurs Outside of Key Levels
Divergence should only be considered when the RSI reaches extreme levels, typically above 70 (overbought) or below 30 (oversold). This helps to identify potential trend reversals. Divergence at neutral levels (like between 40–60) may not be as effective.
🔥 Base Divergence on Candle Closes, Not Wicks
Always look for divergence based on the closing price of candles. Divergence created by wick movements is unreliable and can lead to false signals. Stick to the body of the candle to ensure accuracy.
⏳ Watch the Lookback Period
The RSI’s default lookback period is 14, and divergence with a gap of more than 14 candles is generally less reliable. Wider gaps often signal weak price momentum and a higher chance of failure, so focus on shorter, more recent divergences for better results.
💧 Liquidity Must Be Taken Before Entering Trades
Liquidity is essential when confirming trade setups:
The first high or low should take out liquidity from higher time frames (such as range highs and lows).
The subsequent highs or lows should take out local liquidity, which can be identified by overbought or oversold RSI conditions. Ensure there’s a clear market structure shift before entering trades.
⏰ Timeframe Considerations for Different Trade Types
For swing trades, focus on longer timeframes like the 4-hour chart to capture larger market moves and trends.
For day trades, the 15-minute timeframe is ideal for capturing short-term price action and finer market details.
🔄 Use Divergences for Trend Reversals, in Confluence with Other Analysis
RSI divergence is best used to identify potential trend reversals. However, it should not be used in isolation. Always look for confluence with other technical analysis methods (such as support/resistance levels, moving averages, or candlestick patterns) to increase the reliability of the signal. Combining multiple tools enhances the accuracy of your trade setups.
Stay sharp, stay ahead, and let’s make those moves. Until next time, happy trading!
The Relative Strength Index (RSI): A Beginner’s GuideThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the most widely used technical indicators in trading. Developed by J. Welles Wilder in 1978, it helps traders evaluate the momentum of a market and identify overbought or oversold conditions.
What is RSI?
RSI is an oscillator that measures the speed and magnitude of price changes over a specific period, typically 14 periods. It provides a value between 0 and 100, which helps traders gauge whether an asset is overbought or oversold.
Overbought: RSI above 70 suggests the asset might be overbought and due for a correction.
Oversold: RSI below 30 indicates the asset might be oversold and due for a rebound.
The RSI Formula
The RSI is calculated as:
Where:
RS= Average Gain of Up Periods (over the lookback period) / Average Loss of Down Periods (over the lookback period)
How to Interpret RSI
1. Overbought and Oversold Levels:
- When RSI crosses above 70, it may signal that the asset is overbought and could experience a price decline.
- When RSI drops below 30, it may indicate that the asset is oversold and could see a price increase.
2. Divergence:
- Bullish Divergence: When the price makes lower lows, but RSI makes higher lows, it suggests a potential upward reversal.
- Bearish Divergence: When the price makes higher highs, but RSI makes lower highs, it indicates a potential downward reversal.
3. Centerline Crossover:
- RSI crossing above 50 is often viewed as a bullish signal, indicating upward momentum.
- RSI crossing below 50 suggests bearish momentum.
Strengths of RSI
- Versatility: Works well in a variety of markets (stocks, forex, crypto, etc.) and timeframes.
- Simplicity: Easy to interpret for beginners.
- Divergences: Offers insight into potential trend reversals.
Limitations of RSI
- False Signals**: RSI can provide false overbought/oversold signals in strong trending markets.
- Lagging Indicator: Like most indicators, RSI relies on historical data, which may delay signals.
Best Practices for Using RSI
1. Combine with Other Indicators:
- Use RSI with trend-following indicators like Moving Averages or MACD to filter out false signals.
- Pair it with support and resistance levels to validate potential reversals.
2. Adjust the Period:
- Shorten the period (e.g., 7 or 9) for more sensitive signals.
- Lengthen the period (e.g., 20 or 30) for smoother, less frequent signals.
3. Context Matters:
- In a trending market, RSI may remain overbought or oversold for extended periods. Use it cautiously in such conditions.
Example of RSI in Action
Imagine a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin has been rallying for several days, and the RSI rises above 70. This suggests that Bitcoin might be overbought, and a pullback could occur soon. However, if the market trend is strong, Bitcoin’s RSI could stay above 70 for an extended period. Combining RSI with trend analysis or support/resistance levels can provide better insights.
Conclusion
The RSI is a powerful tool for traders seeking to understand market momentum and potential reversal points. While it’s simple to use, its effectiveness increases when combined with other indicators and market context. As always, practice using RSI on historical data before applying it to live trades, and remember that no single indicator guarantees success
How to use Implied Volatility Index to analyze Bitcoin▮ Introduction
Bitcoin is known for its price volatility. Analyzing the price chart alone is often not enough to make buy and sell decisions.
Implied volatility indexes such as DERIBIT:DVOL and VOLMEX:BVIV can complement traditional technical analysis by providing insights into market sentiment and expectations.
▮ Understanding DVOL/BVIV
DVOL and BVIV measure the expected implied volatility of Bitcoin over the next 30 days, derived from real-time call and put options.
DVOL is calculated by Deribit, the world's largest Bitcoin and Ether options exchange.
BVIV is calculated by Volmex Finance; the data is extracted from exchanges (currently Deribit and OKX), and then combined into a single set.
* In addition to Bitcoin, it is possible to analyze Ethereum-specific instruments through the ticks DERIBIT:ETHDVOL and VOLMEX:EVIV, whose line of reasoning is the same.
▮ Interpreting the chart
🔶 High DVOL/BVIV values indicate that the market expects greater volatility in the next 30 days. This is usually associated with uncertainty, fear, or expected major events.
🔶 The index does not indicate the direction of the price, but rather whether volatility will increase or decrease.
🔶 Low values indicate an expectation of lower volatility and are usually associated with calmer and more optimistic markets.
🔶 To get an idea of the expected daily movement of Bitcoin, simply divide the DVOL value by 20. For example, a DVOL of 100 indicates an expected daily movement of 5%.
🔶 Divergences between the price of Bitcoin and DVOL/BVIV can signal inflection points.
🔶 Price rising with a drop in DVOL/BVIV may indicate exhaustion and a potential top.
🔶 Price falling with a drop in DVOL/BVIV may indicate exhaustion and a potential bottom.
▮ Example
The price of BTC here is at the top in white.
The DVOL and the RSI of DVOL are both in red.
The reason I put the RSI here is that it is easier to analyze DVOL, since the values are in a fixed range, therefore easier to interpret.
On March 25, 2022, the RSI shows a contracted value of 30, that is, low implied volatility. This foreshadows a period of calm that precedes a period of agitation.
In this case, the “agitation” soon materializes in a period of price decline.
When the RSI then reaches the upper limit range, at 83 (on May 12, 2022), a peak in volatility is characterized.
Then, after that, it begins to decrease. This decrease in volatility in DVOL corroborates the moment of Bitcoin’s lateralization within the orange box.
▮ Conclusion
Although DVOL and BVIV should not be used in isolation, they can be valuable tools for confirming price chart signals and anticipating major movements.
Incorporating implied volatility analysis into your strategy, can improve the timing of entries/exits and help manage risk.
⚠️ But remember:
Just because a strategy worked in the past does not mean it will work forever.
Past profitability is no guarantee of future profitability.
Do your own analysis and risk management.
How to Read the RSI Indicator: The Market's Lie DetectorAttention TradingViewers, market gurus, and Instagram influencers, this one indicator goes hard whenever it’s onto something. Let's talk about the RSI — the Relative Strength Index . This bad boy is like the lie detector test of the market, calling out overhyped moves and under-the-radar opportunities.
What’s RSI All About?
The RSI is a momentum-based oscillator that captures the speed and change of price movements. It operates on a scale of 0 to 100, and if you know how to read it, it’s like having X-ray vision into the market’s moods. The best part? It’s super easy to use — slap it on any chart, any time frame and let it do its thing.
The Numbers
Above 70 : Overbought alert! If the RSI shows a reading above 70, the trading instrument may have been partying a little too hard. Anywhere above 70 means that it’s flashing “overbought” – like a sugar rush that’s about to crash. Traders who follow the RSI usually interpret this as a signal to sell and move out of the asset before the line reverses course and dives back under the high-water mark. Sometimes, however, the price keeps climbing well above 70.
Below 30 : Now we’re in “oversold” territory – it’s like spotting a hidden gem in a bargain bin. When RSI drops below 30, the market’s saying, “This thing’s been beaten down, but maybe – just maybe – it’s time for a comeback.” Keep in mind that sometimes the dip may keep dipping.
How It’s Calculated
RSI is all about relative strength — it compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses. Picture a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The RSI score tells you who’s winning the battle right now, but also hints at who might be running out of strength.
Trading with RSI
Overbought? Maybe Sell (obligatory DYOR) . When RSI hits 70 and above, you might be looking at a market running out of fuel. You may start thinking about trimming your position, or at least keep an eye out for a reversal. After all, what goes up must come down (except maybe Bitcoin BTC/USD ?)
Oversold? Maybe Buy (obligatory DYOR) . If the RSI drops to 30 and below, it could be a signal to start looking for a buying opportunity. The market is going through a meltdown and sometimes that’s your cue to go bargain hunting and snap up some discounted assets. Just make sure that your stock or crypto of choice isn’t falling for a specific reason — no indicator can save you from an actual rug pull.
The Sweet Spot — Divergences: Ever notice when the RSI and price action don’t agree? That’s called a divergence, and it’s like catching the market in a lie. If the price is making new highs but the RSI isn’t, or vice versa, it’s a clue that something fishy’s going on and you may want to be on the lookout for a sur- price reversal.
Bonus Tip: RSI in Different Timeframes
Wanna get fancy and earn some bragging rights? Use RSI across different timeframes. A stock might be oversold on the daily but overbought on the weekly. By spotting the trend across different time frames, you can pick your desired time frame to trade in and follow closely. The higher the time frame, the longer the time horizon for the move to actually pan out.
So, there you have it – the RSI. It’s not a crystal ball, but it’s pretty close.
Use it wisely, and you might just outsmart the market — or at least stay ahead of the next big move. Keep those charts hot, continue learning about technical analysis and go smash those trading goals of yours. 🔥
Zero Spread Milestone: Strategic Trade in Micro Yield FuturesIntroduction
The current market scenario presents a unique potential opportunity in the yield spread between Micro 10-Year Yield Futures (10Y1!) and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures (2YY1!). This spread is reaching a critical price point of zero, likely acting as a strong resistance. Such a rare situation opens the door for a strategic trading opportunity where traders can consider shorting the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures and buying the Micro 2-Year Yield Futures.
In TradingView, this spread is visualized using the symbol 10Y1!-CBOT_MINI:2YY1!. The combination of technical indicators suggests a mean reversion trade setup, making this a compelling moment for traders to act on such a potential opportunity. The alignment of overbought signals from Bollinger Bands® and the RSI indicator further strengthens the case for a reversal, presenting an intriguing setup for informed traders.
All of this is following last Wednesday, July 31, 2024, when the FED reported their decision related to interest rates where they left them unchanged, adding further context to the current market dynamics.
Yield Futures Contract Specifications
Micro 10-Year Yield Futures (10Y1!):
Price Quotation: Quoted in yield with a minimum fluctuation of 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum).
Tick Value: Each tick is worth $1.
Margin Requirements: Approximately $320 per contract (subject to change based on market conditions).
Micro 2-Year Yield Futures (2YY1!):
Price Quotation: Quoted in yield with a minimum fluctuation of 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum).
Tick Value: Each tick is worth $1.
Margin Requirements: Approximately $330 per contract (subject to change based on market conditions).
Margin Requirements:
The margin requirements for these contracts are relatively low, making them accessible for retail traders. However, traders must ensure they maintain sufficient margin in their accounts to cover potential market movements and avoid margin calls.
Understanding Futures Spreads
What is a Futures Spread?
A futures spread is a trading strategy that involves simultaneously buying and selling two different futures contracts with the aim of profiting from the difference in their prices. This difference, known as the spread, can fluctuate based on various market factors, including interest rates, economic data, and investor sentiment. Futures spreads are often used to hedge risks, speculate on price movements, or take advantage of relative value differences between related instruments.
Advantages of Futures Spreads:
Reduced Risk: Spreads generally have lower risk compared to outright futures positions because the two legs of the spread can offset each other.
Lower Margin Requirements: Exchanges often set lower margin requirements for spread trades compared to single futures contracts because the risk is typically lower.
Leverage Relative Value: Traders can take advantage of price discrepancies between related contracts, potentially profiting from their convergence or divergence.
Yield Spread Example:
In the context of Micro 10-Year Yield Futures and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures, a yield spread trade involves buying (or shorting) one contract (10Y1! Or 2YY1!) while shorting (or buying) the other. This trade is based on the expectation that the spread between these two yields will move in a specific direction, such as narrowing or widening. The current scenario (detailed below), where the spread is reaching zero, suggests a significant resistance level, providing a unique trading opportunity for mean reversion.
Analysis Method
Technical Indicators: Bollinger Bands® and RSI
1. Bollinger Bands®:
The spread between the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures (10Y1!) and Micro 2-Year Yield Futures (2YY1!) is currently above the upper Bollinger Band on both the daily and weekly timeframes. This indicates potential overbought conditions, suggesting that a price reversal might be imminent.
2. RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The RSI is clearly overbought on the daily timeframe, signaling a possible mean reversion trade. When the RSI reaches such elevated levels, it often indicates that the current trend may be losing momentum, opening the door for a reversal.
Chart Analysis
Daily Spread Chart of 10Y1! - 2YY1!
The main article daily chart above displays the spread between 10Y1! and 2YY1!, highlighting the current position above the upper Bollinger Band. The RSI indicator also shows overbought conditions, reinforcing the potential for a mean reversion.
Weekly Spread Chart of 10Y1! - 2YY1!
The above weekly chart further confirms the spread's position above the upper Bollinger Band. This longer-term view provides additional context and supports the likelihood of a reversal.
Conclusion: Combining the insights from both Bollinger Bands® and RSI provides a compelling rationale for the trading opportunity. The spread reaching the upper Bollinger Band on multiple timeframes, along with an overbought RSI, strongly suggests that the current overextended condition is potentially unsustainable. Additionally, all of this is occurring around the key price level of zero, which can act as a significant psychological and technical resistance. This convergence of technical indicators and the critical price level points to a high probability for a potential mean reversion, making it an opportune moment to analyze shorting the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures (10Y1!) and buying the Micro 2-Year Yield Futures (2YY1!) as the spread is expected to revert towards its mean.
Trade Setup
Entry:
The strategic trade involves shorting the Micro 10-Year Yield Futures (10Y1!) and buying the Micro 2-Year Yield Futures (2YY1!) around the price point of 0. This is based on the analysis that the spread reaching zero can act as a strong resistance level.
Target:
As we expect the 20 SMA to move with each daily update, instead of targeting -0.188, we aim for a mean reversion to approximately -0.15.
Stop Loss:
Place a stop loss slightly above the recent highs of the spread. The daily ATR (Average True Range) value is 0.046, so adding this to the entry price could be a way to implement a volatility stop. This accounts for potential volatility and limits the downside risk of the trade.
Reward-to-Risk Ratio: Calculate the reward-to-risk ratio based on the entry, target, and stop loss levels. For example, if the entry is at 0.04, the target is -0.15, and the stop loss is at 0.09, the reward-to-risk ratio can be calculated as follows:
Reward: 0.19 points = $190
Risk: 0.05 = $50
Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 0.19 / 0.05 = 3.8 : 1
Importance of Risk Management
Defining Risk Management:
Risk management is crucial to limit potential losses and ensure long-term trading success. It involves identifying, analyzing, and taking proactive steps to mitigate risks associated with trading.
Using Stop Loss Orders:
Always use stop loss orders to prevent significant losses and protect capital. A stop loss order automatically exits a trade when the price reaches a predetermined level, limiting the trader's loss.
Avoiding Undefined Risk Exposure:
Clearly define your risk exposure to avoid unexpected large losses. This involves defining the right position size based on the trader’s risk management rules by setting maximum loss limits per trade and overall portfolio.
Precise Entries and Exits:
Accurate entry and exit points are essential for successful trading. Well-timed entries and exits can maximize profits and minimize losses.
Other Important Considerations:
Diversify your trades to spread risk across different assets.
Regularly review and adjust your trading strategy based on market conditions.
Stay informed about macroeconomic events and news that could impact the markets.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Elliott Wave DemonstrationDemonstration of Elliott Wave Principles using Bitcoin chart:
Rules:
Wave 2 never goes below end of Wave 1 => checked
Wave 3 is not the shortest of Wave 1, 3 and 5 => checked
Wave 4 never goes below end of Wave 1 => checked
Guidelines:
Guideline of Alternation: Wave 2 and 4 alternates in form (sharp vs sideways), retracement (shallow vs deep) and duration (long vs short) => checked
Guideline of Wave Equality: Two out of three waves (1,3 and 5) tend to be equal in length and duration, Wave 1 and 5 meeting this guideline => checked
Momentum is highest during end of wave 3, end of Wave 5 normally creates divergence with price => checked
Volume during Wave 3 is normally the highest amongst Wave 1,3 and 5
Relations with Fib ratios:
Wave 2 retraced Wave 1 by 78.6% (deep)
Wave 3 was equal to 261.8% of Wave 1 (longest)
Wave 4 retraced Wave 3 by 38.2% (shallow)
Wave 5 was equal to 100% of Wave 1 (Guideline of Wave equality)
Divergence: RSI vs. PriceHey everyone!
In my years of trading, I've really come to love Reversal Strategies and my favorite is in the form of a DIVERGENCE!
Today, I took some time to put together an Educational Video on:
1) What a Divergence Is?
2) How to Spot them!
&
3) How to Trade them!
I hope you find this helpful!
**Tips
- Divergence is never good enough to trade alone, YOU NEED CONFIRMATION!
- The longer the Divergence takes, the more reliable it is
- Change in Momentum is KEY!
Trade the TREND with 4 Trend Indicators4 Trend Indicators you can use to identify the current MACRO Trend.
It's always important to know where your market is currently trading. Is it bullish, bearish, or range trading? If you have established the trend, you can trade with the trend instead of against it. Trading against the trend ( for example shorting during a bullish cycle ) adds unnecessary risk to an already risky trade (leverage).
1) Bollinger Bands
2) Logarithmic View
3) Super Trend
4) Moving Averages + RSI
Let me know how YOU determine the macro trend!
_________________________
BINANCE:DOGEUSDT MEXC:ETHUSDT KRAKEN:BTCUSD COINBASE:SOLUSD
RSI Indicator LIES! Untold Truth About RSI!
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a classic technical indicator that is applied to identify the overbought and oversold states of the market.
While the RSI looks simple to use, there is one important element in it that many traders forget about: it's a lagging indicator.
This means it reacts to past price movements rather than predicting future ones. This inherent lag can sometimes mislead traders, particularly when the markets are volatile or trade in a strong bullish/bearish trend.
In this article, we will discuss the situations when RSI indicator will lie to you. We will go through the instances when the indicator should not be relied and not used on, and I will explain to you the best strategy to apply RSI.
Relative Strength Index analyzes the price movements over a specific time period and displays a score between 0 and 100.
Generally, an RSI above 70 suggests an overbought condition, while an RSI below 30 suggests an oversold condition.
By itself, the overbought and overbought conditions give poor signals, simply because the market may remain in these conditions for a substantial period of time.
Take a look at a price action on GBPCHF. After the indicator showed the oversold condition, the pair dropped 150 pips lower before the reversal initiated.
So as an extra confirmation , traders prefer to look for RSI divergence - the situation when the price action and indicator move in the opposite direction.
Above is the example of RSI divergence: Crude Oil formed a sequence of higher highs, while the indicator formed a higher high with a consequent lower high. That confirmed the overbought state of the market, and a bearish reversal followed.
However, only few knows that even a divergence will provide accurate signals only in some particular instances.
When you identified RSI divergence, make sure that it happened after a test of an important key level.
Historical structures increase the probability that the RSI divergence will accurately indicate the reversal.
Above is the example how RSI divergence gave a false signal on USDCAD.
However, the divergence that followed after a test of a key level, gave a strong bearish signal.
There are much better situations when RSI can be applied, but we will discuss later on, for now, the main conclusion is that
RSI Divergence beyond key levels most of the time will provide low accuracy signals.
But there is one particular case, when RSI divergence will give the worst, the most terrible signal.
In very rare situations, the market may trade in a strong bullish trend, in the uncharted territory, where there are no historical price levels.
In such cases, RSI bullish divergence will constantly lie , making retail traders short constantly and lose their money.
Here is what happens with Gold on a daily.
The market is trading in the uncharted territory, updated the All-Time Highs daily.
Even though there is a clear overbought state and a divergence,
the market keeps growing.
Only few knows, however, that even though RSI is considered to be a reversal, counter trend indicator, it can be applied for trend following trading.
On a daily time frame, after the price sets a new high, wait for a pullback to a key horizontal support.
Your bullish signal, will be a bearish divergence on an hourly time frame.
Here is how the price retested a support based on a previous ATH on Gold. After it approached a broken structure, we see a confirmed bearish divergence.
That gives a perfect trend-following signal to buy the market.
A strong bullish rally followed then.
RSI indicator is a very powerful tool, that many traders apply incorrectly.
When the market is trading in a strong trend, this indicator can be perfectly applied for following the trend, not going against that.
I hope that the cases that I described will help you not lose money, trading with Relative Strength Index.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part XII - 6-4-24 FlagsPart XII
I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups.
Essentially, it comes down to three key components...
A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length).
B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low.
C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend.
Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated.
I go over multiple techniques in this video.
Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory
Anchor Bars (breakaway bars)
Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending
Stochastics
RSI
Wave formations (ZigZag)
and Others
This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style.
Hope you enjoy.
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part XI - SPY Flagging ExamplePart XI
I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups.
Essentially, it comes down to three key components...
A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length).
B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low.
C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend.
Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated.
I go over multiple techniques in this video.
Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory
Anchor Bars (breakaway bars)
Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending
Stochastics
RSI
Wave formations (ZigZag)
and Others
This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style.
Hope you enjoy.
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part X - EOD 2 Min ES RecapPart X - End Of Day 2 Min ES Recap
I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups.
Essentially, it comes down to three key components...
A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length).
B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low.
C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend.
Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated.
I go over multiple techniques in this video.
Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory
Anchor Bars (breakaway bars)
Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending
Stochastics
RSI
Wave formations (ZigZag)
and Others
This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style.
Hope you enjoy.
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part IX - ES Breakdown To SupportPart IX
I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups.
Essentially, it comes down to three key components...
A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length).
B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low.
C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend.
Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated.
I go over multiple techniques in this video.
Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory
Anchor Bars (breakaway bars)
Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending
Stochastics
RSI
Wave formations (ZigZag)
and Others
This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style.
Hope you enjoy.
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part VIII - Learning PatiencePart VIII
I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups.
Essentially, it comes down to three key components...
A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length).
B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low.
C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend.
Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated.
I go over multiple techniques in this video.
Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory
Anchor Bars (breakaway bars)
Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending
Stochastics
RSI
Wave formations (ZigZag)
and Others
This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style.
Hope you enjoy.
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part VII - 2 Min ES TrendingPart VII - Applying Success/Failure & Fibonacci Price Theory
I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups.
Essentially, it comes down to three key components...
A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length).
B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low.
C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend.
Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated.
I go over multiple techniques in this video.
Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory
Anchor Bars (breakaway bars)
Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending
Stochastics
RSI
Wave formations (ZigZag)
and Others
This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style.
Hope you enjoy.
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part VI - 2 Min ES ChartPart VI
I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups.
Essentially, it comes down to three key components...
A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length).
B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low.
C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend.
Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated.
I go over multiple techniques in this video.
Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory
Anchor Bars (breakaway bars)
Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending
Stochastics
RSI
Wave formations (ZigZag)
and Others
This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style.
Hope you enjoy.
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part VPart V - Deploying Success/Failure Techniques
I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups.
Essentially, it comes down to three key components...
A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length).
B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low.
C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend.
Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated.
I go over multiple techniques in this video.
Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory
Anchor Bars (breakaway bars)
Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending
Stochastics
RSI
Wave formations (ZigZag)
and Others
This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style.
Hope you enjoy.
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part IVPart IV - Decision Making (A vs B)
I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups.
Essentially, it comes down to three key components...
A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length).
B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low.
C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend.
Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated.
I go over multiple techniques in this video.
Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory
Anchor Bars (breakaway bars)
Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending
Stochastics
RSI
Wave formations (ZigZag)
and Others
This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style.
Hope you enjoy.
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part IIIPart III
I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups.
Essentially, it comes down to three key components...
A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length).
B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low.
C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend.
Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated.
I go over multiple techniques in this video.
Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory
Anchor Bars (breakaway bars)
Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending
Stochastics
RSI
Wave formations (ZigZag)
and Others
This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style.
Hope you enjoy.
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part IIPart I
I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups.
Essentially, it comes down to three key components...
A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length).
B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low.
C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend.
Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated.
I go over multiple techniques in this video.
Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory
Anchor Bars (breakaway bars)
Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending
Stochastics
RSI
Wave formations (ZigZag)
and Others
This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style.
Hope you enjoy.
The Mechanics Of Trading - Part IPart I
I started this video because a friend asked me for help determining trends on multi-interval (time frames) and asked how I look at trading across multiple intervals. Asking how to best setup/use price trends to capture the best trade setups.
Essentially, it comes down to three key components...
A. Initial reversal/impulse waves should be traded lightly (if at all). They are the "potential price reversal setups" that are usually the most dangerous for traders (and often fairly short in length).
B. Looking for the second wave to form provides traders with the opportunity to catch the bigger Wave-3. This wave forms after the impulse (Wave-1) and a corrective wave (Wave-2), which must stay below any previous ultimate high or above any previous ultimate low.
C. Wave-3, and Wave-5 if applicable, are where traders can flex their muscles related to trade size using the techniques I present to try to capture the MEAT (Sweet Spot) of any trend.
Remember, after Wave-3, you must prepare for the potential end of a trend setup where volatility is likely to increase and risks become a bit more elevated.
I go over multiple techniques in this video.
Fibonacci techniques and Fibonacci Price Theory
Anchor Bars (breakaway bars)
Using Fibonacci Retracements to identify key support/resistance levels for trending
Stochastics
RSI
Wave formations (ZigZag)
and Others
This video is designed as an instructional video to help you incorporate usable techniques into your own trading style.
Hope you enjoy.
RSI as a Trend ToolMost people use the RSI as a momentum indicator,
trying to find Overbought/Oversold (OBOS) conditions,
and/or divergences.
However there is also a way to use it as a Trend Tool.
There is a mathematical relationship that connects the RSI and EMA's.
The formula is RSI(x) cross-over 50-line = Close cross-over EMA(2x)
i.e. RSI(14) cross-over 50 line = Close cross-over EMA(28)
This one of the properties of the RSI,
which I discovered when taking a more indept look into momentum indicators,
which ultimately led to the discovery of the MACD-v in 2014/2015
The MACD-v was then publicly disclosed in 2022,
in the form of a a paper called
"MACD-v: Volatility Normalised Momentum",
which was awarded:
It has won 2 International Awards:
1. The “Founders Award” (2022),
for advances in Active Investment Management
from the National Association of Active Investment Managars (NAAIM)
2. The “Charles H. Dow Award” (2022)
for outstanding research in Technical Analysis,
from the Chartered Market Technicians Association (CMTA)