Get started

Wave Analysis

Forecasting Swing Levels in a Trend Using Elliot WaveHere's a simple template that can help you to draw good fib extensions off different useful swings when the is a possible Elliot wave pattern. This should help to flag up the high probability areas in a nice expression of the Elliot pattern and also give you warning levels to watch along the way in case the nice simple pattern fails. We're going to focus on two legs. There's a few more you can draw fibs from and have useful repeating ratios but to keep it simple I'm just going to focus on the two high value ones here. Working left to right on the chart notes: When we know waves 4-5 we can use it for wave C An extension fib drawn from low to high of the 4-5 swing (you'd know this was in when wave A breaks the trend) is very useful for determining the levels the market is likely to make a low and also the level which a capitulation event is likely. The 1.61 extension is the important level here. It can hold in a simple wave 4 spike out correction. If it breaks, usually price capitulates to at least the 2.20. More commonly the 2.61 in the event we're making a low (You'll usually find this is a 76 retracement of 1-5 also). In the first instance of a 4-5 fib, I've shown a 1.61 break. Bit of a dummy rally around the 1.61 (very common) and then the capitulation to the lower fibs. Which is more common in the first leg of a trend. Deep retracements are common in trend reversals. When we know 1-2 we can use it for levels for wave 3 When we know where waves 1-2 should be in our count we can draw an extension fib high to low on this. We can define waves 1-2 as being in by the breaking of the first wave 5 high. It's also possible to pre-emptively draw these fibs when you think we're at the end of wave C. Obviously these need checked and adjusted if things change. There are four main fib levels we use in this swing. 1.27, 1.61, 2.20 and 2.61. 1.27 and 1.61 levels here are expected to have pullbacks or soft stalls but ultimately break. They're levels to be careful. If it will fail these are hot spots for it, but once we have some reaction around 1.27 - 1.61 and a valid breakout we trend consistently to 2.20. That usually completes wave 3 of the trend. From 2.20 we'll get chop and some false reversals. This is wave 4. It'll go on for a while and be full of false breakouts. Every time something looks like it's happening, it's not. Eventually there's a false bear breakout and then a big spike to the 2.61. This completes waves 4-5. Now we're back to where we started. Once we know waves 4-5, these help with levels for C. Since we now are inside a developing trend rather than in the first leg of it, the retracement is likely to be shallower. Stopping a little past the 1.61. With the trading under there mainly being a wick. There's a big bounce from the 1.61. A pullback (usually to the 1.27) and then there's a break of the high. Once we have seen those legs, then we have our new 1-2 legs and we can use these to forecast where we expect the nice trending action of C. The soft resistance levels along the way that might turn the market if the Elliot thesis is incorrect and the target levels we know to look for the bigger crash correction. For so long as the Elliot cycle plays this, these things just keep rolling into each other and you can make pretty good forecasts of the trend levels.
NYSE:EDUEducation
by holeyprofit
Gold Accumulation phase THE STORY OF THE DOJI: A large institutional player attempted to orchestrate a stop hunt, creating a false sense of market direction to trigger stops and ignite a sell-off. However, the subsequent price action revealed their hand. The Doji candle at the support level indicated a loss of conviction among sellers, while the slow distribution and step-like pattern suggested a more deliberate and calculated market behavior. The bullish candle that formed at the support level, particularly after the attempted stop hunt, implies that the market is rejecting the lower prices and that buyers are absorbing the selling pressure. This price action suggests that the institutional player's attempt to short the market may have been unsuccessful, and that the market may be poised for a reversal or a continuation of the uptrend. All based on my observational bias
TVC:GOLDEducation
by zikzay1
BIGGEST ALTCOIN RECAP FOR 2024We give glory to God Almighty for the gift of life and good health. As the year 2024 draws to a close, it's the perfect time to prepare our altcoin recap and reflect on the progress we've made. A big shoutout to TradingView for providing this incredible platform that empowers traders to learn, share, and grow together. Thank you, TradingView, for all you do! This post is dedicated to reviewing and revisiting all the altcoin requests submitted throughout the year, from January to December. The goal is to ensure clarity and provide updated insights as we wrap up the year and prepare for BIGGEST ALT SEASON 2025. Links to the analyses can be found here: December: November: October: September: August: July: June: May: April: March: February: January: Here’s how it works: Visit any of my previous posts and locate the analysis of the altcoin you’re interested in. Copy the link to that analysis and paste it here in the comments, along with your specific question or request. Your questions can include: Requesting an update to the existing analysis. Asking for a fresh analysis from scratch. Let’s dive in and collaboratively complete our final recap of 2024 altcoin analyses. This is a chance to refine strategies and prepare for the opportunities ahead. Share your requests, and let’s get to work!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2Education
by weslad
49
Understanding Wyckoff Reaccumulation: A Comprehensive Guide## Introduction to Wyckoff Theory Richard Wyckoff developed his methodology in the early 20th century, creating a systematic approach to market analysis that remains relevant today. His method is based on the principle that market movements are primarily driven by large institutional investors, whom he called "composite operators." ## The Concept of Reaccumulation Reaccumulation is a sideways price pattern that occurs during an ongoing uptrend. Unlike basic accumulation, which occurs at market bottoms, reaccumulation represents a pause in an existing upward trend where institutional investors reload their positions before continuing higher. ### Key Characteristics of Reaccumulation 1. **Prior Uptrend**: Reaccumulation always follows a significant price advance 2. **Trading Range**: Price enters a sideways consolidation period 3. **Volume Analysis**: Typically shows declining volume during the range 4. **Price Structure**: Forms a series of higher lows and lower highs within the range ## Phases of Reaccumulation ### Phase A - Preliminary Support (PS) - Marks the initial support level where the uptrend first pauses - Often accompanied by increased volume - Creates the trading range's support level ### Phase B - Secondary Test (ST) - Price tests the trading range's support - Usually shows decreasing volume - May form several tests of support with springs or upthrusts ### Phase C - Last Point of Support (LPS) - Final test of support before markup - Often shows diminishing volume - Can include a spring below support ### Phase D - Sign of Strength (SOS) - Strong price move up on increased volume - Breaks above local resistance levels - Confirms the reaccumulation structure ### Phase E - Last Point of Supply (LPSY) - Final pullback before sustained markup - Generally shows lower volume than SOS - Creates higher low compared to LPS ## Identifying Reaccumulation vs. Distribution Understanding whether a trading range is reaccumulation or distribution is crucial for traders. Key differences include: ### Reaccumulation Characteristics: - Forms after an uptrend - Shows stronger support than resistance - Springs more common than upthrusts - Volume increases on upward price moves ### Distribution Characteristics: - Forms after an uptrend - Shows stronger resistance than support - Upthrusts more common than springs - Volume increases on downward price moves ## Volume Analysis in Reaccumulation Volume plays a crucial role in confirming reaccumulation patterns: - Decreasing volume during consolidation - Higher volume on tests of support - Strongest volume on breakouts above resistance - Low volume on pullbacks after breakout ## Trading Reaccumulation Patterns ### Entry Strategies: 1. **Spring Entry**: Enter after a spring below support with volume confirmation 2. **SOS Entry**: Enter on the break above resistance with increasing volume 3. **LPSY Entry**: Enter on the last pullback before markup ### Stop Loss Placement: - Below the spring low - Below the last point of support - Below the trading range support ### Target Setting: - Measure the height of the trading range - Project this distance from the breakout point - Consider previous resistance levels ## Case Study Analysis Examining the provided chart, we can identify several key Wyckoff elements: - Initial trading range establishment after uptrend - Multiple tests of support with declining volume - Formation of higher lows within the range - Strong volume on breakout moves - Successful continuation of the uptrend ## Common Mistakes to Avoid 1. Misidentifying the larger trend context 2. Ignoring volume confirmation 3. Taking premature positions before pattern completion 4. Missing important support/resistance levels 5. Failing to consider market context ## Conclusion Wyckoff reaccumulation patterns provide valuable insights into institutional behavior during uptrends. By understanding these patterns, traders can better position themselves to profit from continuation moves while managing risk effectively. Remember that successful trading requires patience, practice, and proper integration of multiple technical analysis tools alongside Wyckoff methodology. Remember: All technical analysis methods, including Wyckoff theory, should be used as part of a comprehensive trading strategy that includes proper risk management and consideration of multiple timeframes and market contexts.
Education
by javaman1376
Catching Dips any Coin with Spiderline !The Spiderline is a concept in cryptocurrency that refers to a specific strategy or indicator used in technical analysis to identify key support and resistance levels on the price charts of crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin. This concept is based on retracement levels or structures calculated from historical market data. Here are the key points to understand the Spiderline: Origin: It is often used by experienced traders to visualize critical zones where the price has historically reacted (bounced or been rejected). These zones are derived from specific lines on the charts based on previous Bitcoin price movements. Usefulness: - Identify support levels: where the price could stop during a decline. - Determine resistance zones: where the price might struggle to move higher. - It also helps plan entry and exit points based on the likelihood of market reactions. Differences from traditional indicators: Unlike tools like moving averages or the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the Spiderline is more specific to Bitcoin's historical behavior and is often used over longer timeframes. Associated strategy: Traders use it to refine their buying or selling decisions, avoid trading against strong trends, and manage their risk effectively. Credit Inspired by #Cryptoface
Education
by paullefebre92
ALTSEASON KICKS OFF!The Biggest Altseason Ever Starts Tomorrow: Are You Ready to Capitalize?" The crypto market is entering a pivotal Acceleration Phase, setting the stage for unprecedented growth. With Bitcoin eyeing a bold target of $250,000, altcoins are expected to surge alongside it, creating incredible opportunities for investors. Imagine turning a modest $50 investment today into $10,000 by 2025—this could be your chance to position yourself for massive gains by identifying and focusing on the right projects. How the Crypto Cycle Works Just like traditional markets, the crypto market follows a predictable four-phase cycle: Accumulation Phase Prices stabilize, and savvy investors quietly build their positions. Markup Phase (Uptrend) Demand surges, leading to rapid price increases across the board. Distribution Phase Prices peak as large investors lock in profits, creating volatility. Markdown Phase (Downtrend) Corrections take place, leading to lower prices before the cycle resets. Why Now? The market is transitioning into the acceleration stage of the Markup Phase—a critical period where explosive growth is likely. Altcoins, often overshadowed by Bitcoin, are set to experience dramatic gains as capital flows into the broader crypto market. Position Yourself for Success This is the moment when informed investors can make strategic moves to maximize their returns. By identifying promising altcoins and projects now, you could set yourself up for life-changing gains as the market continues its upward trajectory. Are you ready to seize this opportunity? 🚀
Education
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
29
Dow Jones Futures Typical Movements StudyI have been going over average movements for awhile now and this is just a snippet of the last month. I have noticed there are four main movements. Small movements of 250 ticks, used in small pullbacks and retracements Medium movements of 375 ticks, used in slightly deeper pullbacks and retracements Large movements of 625 ticks, used in expansion moves, either to the upside or to the downside X-Large movements of 750 ticks, used in more substantial moves, either to the upside or to the downside Out of the four, small 250 moves and Large 625 tick moves are the most frequent. One of the ways I am using this information is where to take profits. I know I won't catch the bottom or the top of the move and so, if I can capture the middle 50% then I can use these average movements and cut them in half. If a large expansion move is on average 625 ticks, then 50% of this will be 312 ticks. Therefore, I could expect a pause or pullback at/ around that area.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Education
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
Rolling Correlations and Applications for Traders and Investors1. Introduction Markets are dynamic, and the relationships between assets are constantly shifting. Static correlation values, calculated over fixed periods, may fail to capture these changes, leading traders to miss critical insights. Rolling correlations, on the other hand, provide a continuous view of how correlations evolve over time, making them a powerful tool for dynamic market analysis. This article explores the concept of rolling correlations, illustrates key trends with examples like ZN (10-Year Treasuries), GC (Gold Futures), and 6J (Japanese Yen Futures), and discusses their practical applications for portfolio diversification, risk management, and timing market entries and exits. 2. Understanding Rolling Correlations o What Are Rolling Correlations? Rolling correlations measure the relationship between two assets over a moving window of time. By recalculating correlations at each step, traders can observe how asset relationships strengthen, weaken, or even reverse. For example, the rolling correlation between ZN and GC reveals periods of alignment (strong correlation) during economic uncertainty and divergence when driven by differing macro forces. o Why Rolling Correlations Matter: Capture dynamic changes in market relationships. Detect regime shifts, such as transitions from risk-on to risk-off sentiment. Provide context for recent price movements and their alignment with historical trends. o Impact of Window Length: The length of the rolling window (e.g., 63 days for daily, 26 weeks for weekly) impacts the sensitivity of correlations: Shorter Windows: Capture rapid changes but may introduce noise. Longer Windows: Smooth out fluctuations, focusing on sustained trends. 3. Case Study: ZN (Treasuries) vs GC (Gold Futures) Examining the rolling correlation between ZN and GC reveals valuable insights into their behavior as safe-haven assets: o Daily Rolling Correlation: High variability reflects the influence of short-term market drivers like inflation data or central bank announcements. Peaks in correlation align with periods of heightened risk aversion, such as in early 2020 during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. o Weekly Rolling Correlation: Provides a clearer view of their shared response to macroeconomic conditions. For example, the correlation strengthens during sustained inflationary periods when both assets are sought as hedges. o Monthly Rolling Correlation: Reflects structural trends, such as prolonged periods of monetary easing or tightening. Divergences, such as during mid-2023, may indicate unique demand drivers for each asset. These observations highlight how rolling correlations help traders understand the evolving relationship between key assets and their implications for broader market trends. 4. Applications of Rolling Correlations Rolling correlations are more than just an analytical tool; they offer practical applications for traders and investors: 1. Portfolio Diversification: By monitoring rolling correlations, traders can identify periods when traditionally uncorrelated assets start aligning, reducing diversification benefits. 2. Risk Management: Rolling correlations help traders detect concentration risks. For example, if ZN and 6J correlations remain persistently high, it could indicate overexposure to safe-haven assets. Conversely, weakening correlations may signal increasing portfolio diversification. 3. Timing Market Entry/Exit: Strengthening correlations can confirm macroeconomic trends, helping traders align their strategies with market sentiment. 5. Practical Insights for Traders Incorporating rolling correlation analysis into trading workflows can enhance decision-making: Shorter rolling windows (e.g., daily) are suitable for short-term traders, while longer windows (e.g., monthly) cater to long-term investors. Adjust portfolio weights dynamically based on correlation trends. Hedge risks by identifying assets with diverging rolling correlations (e.g., if ZN-GC correlations weaken, consider adding other uncorrelated assets). 6. Practical Example: Applying Rolling Correlations to Trading Decisions To illustrate the real-world application of rolling correlations, let’s analyze a hypothetical scenario involving ZN (Treasuries) and GC (Gold), and 6J (Yen Futures): 1. Portfolio Diversification: A trader holding ZN notices a decline in its rolling correlation with GC, indicating that the two assets are diverging in response to unique drivers. Adding GC to the portfolio during this period enhances diversification by reducing risk concentration. 2. Risk Management: During periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty (e.g., late 2022), rolling correlations between ZN and 6J rise sharply, indicating a shared safe-haven demand. Recognizing this, the trader reduces exposure to both assets to mitigate over-reliance on risk-off sentiment. 3. Market Entry/Exit Timing: Periods where the rolling correlation between ZN (Treasuries) and GC (Gold Futures) transitions from negative to positive signal that the two assets are potentially regaining their historical correlation after a phase of divergence. During these moments, traders can utilize a simple moving average (SMA) crossover on each asset to confirm synchronized directional movement. For instance, as shown in the main chart, the crossover highlights key points where both ZN and GC aligned directionally, allowing traders to confidently initiate positions based on this corroborative setup. This approach leverages both correlation dynamics and technical validation to align trades with prevailing market trends. These examples highlight how rolling correlations provide actionable insights that improve portfolio strategy, risk management, and trade timing. 7. Conclusion Rolling correlations offer a dynamic lens through which traders and investors can observe evolving market relationships. Unlike static correlations, rolling correlations adapt to shifting macroeconomic forces, revealing trends that might otherwise go unnoticed. By incorporating rolling correlations into their analysis, market participants can: Identify diversification opportunities and mitigate concentration risks. Detect early signs of market regime shifts. Align their portfolios with dominant trends to enhance performance. In a world of constant market changes, rolling correlations can be a powerful tool for navigating complexity and making smarter trading decisions. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
Understanding Trends and Waves in TradingIntroduction In trading education, recognising price movements is crucial. Prices move in trends, and these trends move in waves. Understanding these waves is essential for successful trading. The Two Types of Waves Impulsive/Primary Trend Comprises a minimum of five waves. Dictates the overall direction of price movement. Corrective/Secondary Trend Comprises a maximum of three waves. Provides insights into the ongoing trend. This phase is the most critical for traders to master. Conclusion To trade successfully in a trending market, it’s vital to learn how to accurately count waves. Mastering this skill can significantly enhance your trading decisions. Best wishes for your trading success!
Education
by Charts247TradingAcademy
5
Silver Anatomy: Elliot Wave Insights PT IIGreetings, Everyone In part two of our silver update, I will dive into the structures of Elliott Wave Theory, focusing on Impulse Waves and Corrective Waves. Let’s break down these components for a deeper understanding. Understanding the Types of Waves Impulse Waves (1-3-5) Impulse waves are powerful, directional moves characterized by strong momentum. These waves typically occur in the direction of the main trend, with Wave 3 often being the most dominant. Corrective Waves (2-4) Corrective waves are pauses or pullbacks in the trend, often seen as sideways price action. They take forms such as: • Flat Patterns • Triangles • Zigzags (a sharp, back-and-forth movement). Using RSI to Analyze Waves The RSI provides valuable insight into wave structures: • Vertical lines mark the RSI peaks corresponding to major impulse waves. • Colored boxes on the RSI panel highlight key areas to watch. Key Impulse Wave Rules • Wave 1: Marks the beginning of the trend reversal, confirmed by the RSI breaking above the zero line and the histogram turning green. • Wave 3: Typically the strongest and longest wave in the sequence. Key Corrective Wave Rules • Wave 2: Does not retrace 100% of Wave 1. In this case, note how the RSI dips below the previous impulse level. An expanded flat pattern with a large B-wave exceeding the prior impulse is also evident. • Wave 4: Should not close below the level of Wave 1. Rule of Alternation • If Wave 2 is simple (small), then Wave 4 will likely be complex (large), and vice versa. Support and Resistance Dynamics Observe the green boxes in the price chart marking major pivot points, which often signal the end of corrective waves. These pivots align with critical support and resistance levels, frequently igniting substantial rallies thereafter. Analyzing Bias & Executing Trading Probability In my enthusiasm, I anticipated a significant breakout (bias) at the triangle peak of Wave 5, as outlined in my second silver trading post. I had drawn a triangle breakout expecting an upward move. While my bias led me to the wrong conclusion, my analysis itself wasn’t incorrect—the triangle did break out, but it moved to the downside instead against by bias. As previously mentioned, when a pattern fails, it often leads to dramatic price action in the opposite direction. For those who stayed objective and followed the chart rather than their bias, this presented a prime opportunity. The downside breakout retraced the entire impulse cycle in a remarkably short period of time, showcasing the power of trading without assumptions. It leads to question how can we stay objective while in these trades? The answer I found is to always be referencing key manual & guides. Fibonacci Applications for Traders by Robert Fischer provides a valuable solution to the dilemma I encountered (not sponsored or paid, by the way). In one section, Fischer mentions that “following the Elliott wave concept will lead you to not buy in an uptrend at the end of Wave 3.” To elaborated more on this idea — it is best to avoid buying wave 4s because Wave 5 is sometimes truncated or fails to materialize altogether, leading to a price reversal. This insight answers many questions about why wave 5 is so difficult to trade. Will it extend, will it be shorter? Will it be a .618 measurement of wave 1, 1 exact measurement of wave 1, will it extend to 1.618, or will it fail? One key rule he emphasizes is that, in an Elliott Wave cycle, only three waves may exist under certain conditions—challenging the assumption of a full five-wave sequence. Trading Strategy Improvements 1. Enter at Wave 2 Retracement Levels • Focus on taking a large position at Wave 2 retracement levels, but only after confirmation of a reversal. (Human tendency): We often experience FOMO when prices are high. However, history shows that chasing during high-FOMO moments usually signals a peak. Patience pays off at retracement levels. 2. Pyramid Positions During Wave 3 • Gradually scale aggressively into your position as Wave 3 begins moving with strong momentum. This allows you to capitalize on the high-octane movement of the impulse wave by adding to a winning trade. 3. Exit Around Wave 3.3 or 3.5 • Scale out of your position during the middle or later part of Wave 3. Exiting while the momentum remains strong ensures you lock in gains before the trend begins to fade. Conclusion By combining Elliott Wave Theory with RSI analysis, we gain clearer insight into market dynamics, helping us anticipate potential turning points with greater confidence.
FX:XAGUSDEducation
by coilemard
2
Thoughts About Elliott Wave: Why the 5 & 3 Model?According to Dow, there are two primary trends in the market, the primary uptrend and the primary downtrend.Both primary trends consist of three phases. Phases of the Primary Uptrend -Accumulation Phase -Markup Phase -Distribution Phase Phases of the Primary Downtrend -Distribution Phase -Panic Phase -Discouraged Selling Phase Note that the distribution phase is common between the primary uptrend and the primary downtrend. The urgent question is: Where does the distribution phase lie? In the primary uptrend or in the primary downtrend? The answer is that this stage occurs during the final stage of the bullish trend. Although the selling (the downtrend) has actually started, it does not appear on the chart that shows the continuation of the bullish trend, as the selling is done in a hidden way, where smart sellers who notice the greedy buying rush from all traders in the market, whether professional or nonprofessional, who heard from the specialized and nonspecialized media about the uninterrupted staggering profits of the stock market. At this phase, all or the vast majority of investors, traders, and fund managers become buyers, either with what they own or in managing money, in addition to margin, in order to catch up or increase profits that continue for a long time. No one believes that it will be cut off or stopped. For sellers to distribute the largest amount of their shares they own, they maintain the upward trend in front of market participants to maintain buyers' hopes. Only a few professionals who are not under the psychological pressure of excessive optimism take note of this sales process. They notice the selling and the start of the real bearish trend (which is not visible on the chart) through negative divergences, whether in volumes or with momentum indicators and market breadth. Rising wedge is the best formation and reflects the distribution phase. At times it is formed in the whole distribution phase or in the last part of it. IFTAUPDATE 2022 Volume 29 Issue 1 By El- Sayed Owaidy, CETA, CFTe
TVC:DJIEducation
by Market_Minds_SM
The Anatomy of a Downtrend: A case study of silver XAGUSDTopic 1: Downtrend analysis Introduction: This post serves two purposes: to educate readers and to act as a personal reference tool for future analysis. We’ll be reviewing recent price action in Silver (XAGUSD) , offering valuable insights that apply not just to commodities but also to equities. This sequence of events, while varying in scale, repeats itself across all time frames—daily, monthly, yearly. As a rule, the higher the time frame, the greater the potential returns. Rant We don’t need a million strategies. We don’t need overpriced guru courses claiming to deliver “10,000% gainers” (cue eye roll). What we need is a solid understanding of market behavior and the tools to make informed decisions. Preface Due to charting limitations, I’ve compressed the information here. Additional research may be necessary for a full understanding. This analysis incorporates: • Classical Chart Patterns (Part 1) • Elliott Wave Theory (Part 2) • Support & Resistance Levels (Blended) Getting Started: Understanding Trend Reversal Silver Price Peak Notice the rejection at $34.86 red circle on October 24. Silver spiralled lower, first to $33.08, briefly rebounded to $34.58, but lost momentum and rolled over again big purple circle. Reversal Peak Draw a trendline from $34.5 down to $30.615, connecting as many wicks as possible. Pay attention to the price swings during this dramatic decline. Downtrend Sequence Silver followed this classic pattern of lower highs and lower lows: 1. Swing Low 2. Lower High 3. Lower Low 4. Lower High 5. Lower Low Tip: Identifying Swing Extremes Use your drawing tool to circle ⭕️ or draw a square ⬛️the major swing points—areas where price reacted most sharply or moved the furthest before reversing. These are key reference points for understanding market structure. Potential Reversal Price broke out of its down trend and subsequently broke over its (lowest high) last purple swing point. At this point price formed a new high green circle 🟢 however a (higher lower) has not yet been confirmed on the higher time frame. In the next post, I’ll dive into the lower time frames, focusing on Elliott Wave Theory and key observations since the trendline break. If you found this analysis helpful, please leave a like and share your thoughts in the comments—thank you!
FX:XAGUSDEducation
by coilemard
4
DECEMBER ALTCOIN ANALYSIS REQUESTHello everyone, We’re excited to announce that the ALTCOIN ANALYSIS REQUESTS for December 2024 are officially open! Submission Deadline: December 1st, 2024. To maintain precision and efficiency in our analysis, we ask each member to submit only one (1) Altcoin request. Guidelines for Submissions: Use proper formats like ETHBTC, ETHUSDT, or ETHUSD. Include the exchange name where the coin is listed. Please note: We’ll be analyzing a maximum of 30 Altcoins based on the requests we receive. Let’s work together to identify market opportunities and make informed decisions. For reference, check out the links to our prior analysis sessions: #January: #February: #March #April #May #June #July #August #September #October #November We deeply value your ongoing support—please take a moment to review past analyses, share your thoughts, and hit the like button to show your appreciation! Thank you all for being part of this journey. Rest assured, we’re committed to delivering top-quality insights every time. Best regards, WESLAD
Education
by weslad
154
Quantum Mechanics & Market Behavior At this stage of my research, I would like to share the primary inspirations behind my style of analysis. As you've already noticed, I don’t create forecasts, as they are subjective and inherently disconnected from the objective nature of markets. Instead, I focus on predictions grounded in the captured dynamics of market behavior in order to actually get closer to its causality. "QUANTUM MARKET" In the unpredictable world of trading, price action often mirrors the strange principles of quantum mechanics. Concepts like wave function collapse, entanglement, chaos theory, the multiverse, and even the double-slit experiment provide a unique lens to understand why markets behave as they do—particularly when they defy the majority of forecasts and move in unexpected directions. The Collapse of the Market Wave Function In quantum mechanics, a particle exists in a state of possibilities described by its wave function until it is measured. When observed, the wave function "collapses" into one definite outcome. Similarly, in markets, price exists as a spectrum of probabilities, influenced by fundamental data, sentiment, and technical levels. These probabilities reflect the collective forecasts of traders, analysts, and institutions. The "collapse" of the market wave function can be likened to the moments when price unexpectedly moves against the prevailing sentiment, proving the majority wrong. For instance, when experts predict a bullish breakout, only for the market to reverse sharply, it resembles the moment a quantum system resolves into a state that surprises its observers. This metaphor highlights the fragile relationship between market expectations and actual outcomes. Just as the act of measurement influences a quantum system, the collective observation and positioning of traders directly impact market movements. The Multiverse of Price Action The Many-Worlds Interpretation (MWI) of quantum mechanics posits that every possible outcome of a quantum event occurs, creating branching universes for each scenario. This offers a useful metaphor for the multiverse of market possibilities, where price action simultaneously holds countless potential paths. Each decision by traders, institutions, and external forces influences which path the market ultimately "chooses," much like the branching of quantum states into separate realities. When the market takes an unexpected turn, it can be thought of as moving into a "branch" of the multiverse that was previously considered improbable by the majority. For example: A widely anticipated bullish breakout may fail, with the price collapsing into a bearish reversal. This outcome corresponds to a "parallel universe" of price action where the market follows a path contrary to the consensus. When they say market has its on path, chances are they're definitely referring to approach from Fractal Market Hypothesis. The moment traders observe the market defy expectations, their reality shifts into this new "branch," leaving the discarded probabilities as theoretical relics. While traders only experience one "reality" of the market—the observed price movement—the multiverse perspective reminds us that all potential outcomes coexist until resolved by market forces. Chaos Theory: The Hidden Order Behind Market Behavior Markets may appear chaotic, but their movements are not entirely random. Instead, they follow principles reminiscent of chaos theory, where complex systems display patterns that arise from underlying order. In trading, this hidden order emerges from the entanglement of price action—the intricate relationship between buyers, sellers, sentiment, and external events. Counter-oscillations of opposing forces, such as bullish and bearish sentiment that has stake in patterns. When these forces reach a critical point, they can produce dramatic reversals or breakouts. A fascinating aspect of this hidden order lies in the measurement of cycle intervals, which can decrypt the path and stops of price action. These intervals, often influenced by Fibonacci ratios, reflect the inherent chaos of the market while maintaining a surprising consistency. In chaotic systems, the ratios of results inherit the domestic chaos properties of the system itself. This means the measured intervals not only explain past behavior but also project future movements, where price has no option but to adhere to the golden ratio in its path, regardless of direction. Tools like Fibonacci Channels on TradingView combine these ratios with the angle of the trend, revealing fractal-based timing measurements that highlight potential trend shifts. These tools demonstrate how price action, driven by the chaotic yet structured forces of the market, aligns with these self-similar patterns over time. Entanglement and the Double-Slit Experiment in Markets Einstein described quantum entanglement as "spooky action at a distance," where the state of one particle instantaneously influences another, no matter how far apart they are. Markets also mirror another iconic quantum experiment: the double-slit experiment, which demonstrates how particles behave as waves when unobserved but collapse into definitive points when measured. In the double-slit experiment, an electron passes through two slits, existing as a wave of probabilities until observed. Without observation, it creates an interference pattern, suggesting it travels through both slits simultaneously. However, when measured, the electron collapses into a single state, taking a definitive path through one slit and landing at a specific spot on the detector. Price action behaves in a strikingly similar way. Just as an electron "feels" it is being observed and alters its behavior, ongoing price action appears to respond to the collective observation of millions of traders. Despite this intense scrutiny, price action frequently surprises both bulls and bears, defying expectations as if reflecting the duality of probability and definitiveness. When unobserved or in a state of uncertainty, markets exhibit wave-like behavior, oscillating between potential paths. Trends consolidate, creating a balance of opposing forces. However, as traders act on their observations—placing bets, setting stop losses, or predicting breakouts—price "collapses" into a definitive state, choosing a path that often defies the collective expectations of the market. Logical Deductions Understanding the market through the lens of quantum mechanics, chaos theory, and the multiverse offers valuable insights for traders: Expect the Unexpected: Just as a quantum particle's state cannot be precisely predicted, markets are inherently probabilistic. Even the most widely expected outcomes can collapse under the weight of unforeseen variables or simply change of incentive during overheat volatility. Beware of Herd Mentality: When the majority aligns behind a forecast, the market becomes entangled in their collective assumptions. This might create conditions for a dramatic reversal, much like how a quantum system shifts into an unanticipated state. Recognize Counter-Oscillations: Price action is driven by the push and pull of opposing forces. Trends often mask the tension beneath, and understanding these dynamics can help traders anticipate critical turning points. Measure Cycles with Ratios: Fibonacci-based tools, when combined with trend angles, reveal fractal rhythms and the frequency of reversals. These measurements help traders predict price shifts with greater accuracy. Embrace the Multiverse: Just as the Many-Worlds Interpretation suggests all outcomes coexist until resolved, traders should recognize that multiple possibilities are always present in the market. Being prepared for alternative scenarios helps mitigate risk and improve decision-making. General Interconnectedness: Markets are a dynamic interplay of order and chaos, shaped by the entanglement of opposing forces and the constant tension between consensus and contrarian dynamics. The collapse of the wave function—those moments when price defies expert predictions—reminds us of the deep complexities underlying actual behavior of masses. Through the lens of the multiverse, every market outcome can be seen as a branching reality, where the price action we observe is just one of many potential paths. By embracing this perspective, traders can better navigate the intricate dance of probabilities and entanglement, understanding that markets are not linear systems but ever-changing, interconnected realities. This mindset empowered me to thrive in the environment of duality, where adaptability and probabilistic thinking are the actual keys to understanding price mechanism in Financial Markets. Disclaimer: You don’t have to accept these observations as true. Always trust your own judgment and cultivate independent thinking. Personally, I find that the behavior of particles at the quantum scale is the closest phenomenon that mirrors the chaos of the market.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by fract
12
Elliot waves meets Fibonacci [Educational]Hello everyone, today I like to share how I use elliot waves combined with fibonacci to analyze the market. The standard rules are: - Wave 2 can now be lower then the start of wave 1 - Wave 3 should be the longest - Wave 4 should not breach the high of wave 1 But to have a more objective view there are also price targets to be reached within the different waves. It's a complex subject to show in one chart, so feel free to ask in the comment section if you have any questions.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Kyrean
7
Ticker: Celsius Elliot Wave Reference Model Here’s a reference model for Elliot wave & the 5 Motive Waves . This is ticker NASDAQ:CELH Please leave a like 👍 & a positive comment. Studying for success Assuming you had correctly identified the wave you were in, you could have protected your capital from significant losses. Celsius’ price plummeted from $99 to below $28, a sharp drop that highlights the importance of wave analysis in safeguarding your investments. This strategy & screening methodology can serve as a valuable addition to your trading toolkit. It’s currently 3 a.m. in Toronto, and I’ve spent the last three hours trying to solve this puzzle. 🧩 This is an Extended Wave 3 count. While other primary waves can extend, this is most common wave to extend. That means this charting principle & identification technique will work majority of the time at least on equities. Other assets have varying chart rules. Step 1: Identifying Wave 3 - Look for RSI in overbought territory (70+). - Switch to the highest time frame and identify the highest RSI level on both the price chart and RSI indicator. - This price area often coincides with the highest volume. Highlight the highest volume bars on your chart for confirmation. - Mark this point as Wave 3 and then work backward to identify the preceding waves. Step 2: Identifying Primary Wave 1 & primary wave 2 As you are aware primary wave 1 is the first of the primary wave. Find an area on a chart where price has declined significantly and has created an accumulation box. Mark out the strongest impulse from the box, this should signify wave 1. Wave 1 can be seen as the start of the major move. - Perform a visual scan of the ticker you’re analyzing: - Identify and mark accumulation zones using a rectangular box. - A strong price breakout from an accumulation zone typically signifies the start of Wave 1. - If you’ve already identified Wave 3, you’ll notice Wave 1 is connected to it by a retracement (Primary Wave 2). This relationship should make Wave 1 & 2 &3 (sub 3)easier to spot. Step 3 Primary Wave 3 / Sub wave 4 Retracement & final wave 3 - Wave 3(4) Extension: This retracement might appear to be a Primary Wave 4, but it’s actually the final wave before the extended Wave 3(5). Confusing? I know! Wave extensions are complex. Pay close attention to RSI levels to accurately judge this subwave. Quick Tip: Use the Fibonacci extension tool: 1. Drag from the bottom of Primary Wave 1 to the top. 2. Then drag again to the end of Primary Wave 2. 3. This will mark the 1.618 level, which is often where Subwave 3 of Primary Wave 3 ends. This is the highest price point before Subwave 4’s deep or flat retracement. • Now that you’ve identified Subwave 3 and Subwave 4, you can confirm the Primary Wave 3, which connects to Subwave 4. This will be the next impulse. Step 4 Identifying Wave 4 - Notice the next major accumulation / basing pattern / deep retracement after primary wave 3. Done! Very nice! Step 5: Identifying Wave 5 Similarly to how wave 1 connect to 2 wave 4 connect to wave 5. Done ! b]Final Mentions Point 1 - Notice M pattern extended wave 3(5) aka ( wave 3 final) and primary 5. (M) pattern often called double top. Point 2 - Notice the connections of both the top & bottoms of waves 3(5) and primary 5. Creates a symmetrical triangle pattern which would flash warning signs before the huge price descent. Point 3 - Notice the RSI where you think a new wave started it was just a sub wave in an extensions or a higher time degree Elliot wave. Point 4( can be seen on 4hour time frame) Note the head & shoulder which triggered & signified the end of wave 🌊 sent price from $98 to $26. That is it for this tutorial / reference guide. Please leave a like and a positive comment this took lots of time. If you got to this Part drop your favourite emoji in the chat there are mine : 🌊🤝🎯 Thanks, C Lemard
NASDAQ:CELHEducation
by coilemard
Advanced Trend Analysis in SMC Smart Money Concept Trading Forex In this article, we will discuss how to execute advanced market trend analysis with smart money concept trading. I will teach you how to identify long-term, mid-term and minor trend and how to apply trend analysis in making predictions and trading. First, let me briefly remind you the basic rules of a trend analysis in SMC trading. We say that the market is bullish if there are at least 2 bullish impulses with 2 higher highs and a retracement leg between them with a higher low. The market is bearish if there are at least 2 bearish impulses with 2 lower lows and a retracement leg between them with a lower high. If the conditions for a bullish or a bearish trend are not met, we say that the market is consolidating . Bullish violation of the last higher high in a bullish trend is called a Break of Structure BoS. Bearish violation of the last higher low in a bullish trend is called a Change of Character CHoCH. Bearish violation of the last lower low in a bearish trend is called a Break of Structure BoS. Bullish violation of the last lower high in a bearish trend is called a Change of Character CHoCH. BoS signifies a trend continuation. CHoCH signifies a trend violation. In order to apply these rules on a price chart, we perceive the market movements as the set of impulse and retracement legs. However, with such a method of analysis a big question arises: what is exactly is the impulse leg, how strong and long it should be. Which price fluctuations can be a part of the impulse and which should be excluded. Look at the example above. A price action on AUDCAD can be perceived as one single bullish impulse or a combination of 3 bullish impulses and retracements and a combination of multiple impulses and retracements. Which way of analysis is correct? The fact is that the price action analysis on each chart is correct . The only difference between them is the perspective . From a long-term perspective , the entire price movement on the chart is a one single impulse. From a mid-term perspective , it is the market that is trading in a bullish trend in 3 bullish impulses. From a short-term perspective , it is the market that is trading in a bullish trend and started to consolidate and trade in sideways for some time, resuming the growth then. With advanced SMC trend analysis, you should learn to perceive a price chart not only as a combination of impulse and retracement legs, but also as a combination of long-term, mid-term and short-term trends and movements. Depending on your trading style, such a reasoning can be applied on any time frame. Look at AUDJPY pair on an hourly time frame. From a long-term perspective, the pair is trading in a bearish trend. Studying in details the last bullish impulse, we can perceive it as a minor bullish trend with its confirmed violation after a Change of Character. Let's discuss another example. EURNZD is trading in a clear long-term bullish trend on a daily. Zooming in the chart, we can also analyze the last bullish impulse in a long-term bullish trend as a mid-term bullish trend. At the same time, if we analyze the recent minor movements, we can spot a confirmed minor bearish trade on the pair. Why do we need such an in-depth market trend analysis? Always remember that a global trend is always born from a minor trend. Minor trend analysis will help you to identify local reversal, trend following signals much earlier. The fact that EURNZD started to trade in a minor bearish trend, being globally bullish, can be an important warning sign for us. You can see that after some time the pair started to fall rapidly. A minor bearish trend continued, a mid-term bullish trend was violated and a correction started in a global bullish trend. Your ability to correctly analyze different market perspectives is essential for making accurate predictions. The trend analysis rules and events that we discussed are more than enough for successful trading any time frame and any market. Study trend analysis, learn to identify global, mid-term and minor trend and good luck in your trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Education
by VasilyTrader
6
The U.S. Election: Why Investor Psychology Outweighs Politics?As the 2024 U.S. presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris draws to a close, discussions on its potential impact on the stock market are intensifying. The common belief is that elections like these have significant influence on market direction, with some expecting substantial shifts based on which candidate emerges victorious. Yet at Vital Direction, our perspective is that the market’s underlying forces—those stemming from social mood, collective psychology, and well-established cycles—play a far greater role than any singular political event. The Market’s Independence from Political Events There exists a widespread assumption that major political events, such as presidential elections, are central drivers of long-term market trends. This belief, though popular, fails to account for the market’s inherent self-direction. Stock markets don’t respond as simply as a cause-and-effect model would suggest; instead, they operate according to internal patterns and psychological shifts within the investor community. The Elliott Wave Theory offers an invaluable lens into this perspective. Developed as a way to understand market movements, it proposes that markets progress in identifiable cycles driven by waves of investor optimism and pessimism. These waves transcend individual events and reflect broader, longer-term patterns. Whether in response to an election or any other newsworthy event, the market’s primary direction remains bound to these underlying cycles, not to short-lived political fluctuations. Elections: Short-Term Volatility, Not Long-Term Direction The 2024 election will no doubt introduce some degree of short-term volatility. Markets may experience fluctuations in response to immediate reactions, whether from policy expectations or from shifts in investor sentiment. However, such volatility is more indicative of temporary emotional responses than a change in the overall trend. Historically, markets have witnessed reactions to elections, but these are typically fleeting. A notable example is the 2016 election: though it spurred temporary market movement, the longer trend was driven by broader cyclical forces, unaffected by any one political outcome. This view echoes what is outlined in Socionomic theory, which suggests that markets are less about reaction to events and more about reflecting the underlying social mood. This perspective implies that it is not political events but rather the collective psyche of investors that drives market cycles. In other words, while elections can spark volatility, they do not chart the course of long-term market movement. The Role of Investor Psychology and Cycles At Vital Direction, we place considerable emphasis on investor psychology as the core driver of market behaviour. Techniques such as Elliott Wave Theory and technical analysis allow us to understand this psychology in action, mapping market movements as a series of waves that reflect collective emotional shifts. Whether optimism, fear, or greed, these emotions unfold in repeating cycles, showcasing the natural rhythm of the market. Likewise, Socionomics further reinforces the concept that social mood—bullish optimism or bearish fear—shapes markets from the ground up, regardless of political events. By viewing the market through this lens, we see that people’s collective psychology builds self-perpetuating cycles that continue regardless of transient events. This view aligns with the insights of technical analysis, including the application of Fibonacci retracements and Hurst cycles, which help reveal recurring investor cycles. These analytical methods enable us to anticipate market behaviour based not on who wins an election but on how collective sentiment evolves over time. Tools like these reveal that the stock market has its own rhythm, largely impervious to the outcomes of political events. Concluding Thoughts: The Market’s Own Path To conclude, the U.S. presidential election, while undoubtedly an important social and political event, has a limited impact on the stock market’s overall direction. Political events might momentarily capture the headlines and trigger brief volatility, but the primary market trend persists, following its own inherent cycles. Whether Trump or Harris wins, we at Vital Direction expect the market to continue adhering to its established patterns, driven by the deeper forces of investor psychology. For investors, understanding this can be a powerful tool amidst the noise of election speculation. By focusing on the patterns and cycles inherent to investor psychology, traders can engage the market with a clear view that looks beyond short-term fluctuations, aligning instead with the stable, cyclical forces that guide the market’s enduring direction. In short, trust in the cycle, not the headlines. The market’s true course is set not by elections but by the collective sentiment of those who invest in it.
SP:SPXEducation
by VitalDirection
SMHI - Can an ugly chart actually be a good play?This is one of those charts I had on a watchlist titled "Waiting For Bottom". I checked in on Friday and it was touching the bottom of the channel. Boom! Is this post a prediction? Nope. Do I think this Elliott Wave count is for sure accurate? Nope. So what is this? First of all, remove all of the markings and look at the chart with nothing but price action. What do you see? If your answer is a "a complete mess that was generally melting up until the middle of 2024", you'd be correct. This is not a trending stock with a high probability setup. There is no clear 5-waves up pattern playing out. In fact, there is no clear anything pattern playing out. But that's exactly why I think this "might" be a diagonal and might be an interesting play for a solid risk/reward. What is a diagonal you ask? Let's make sure you understand. In Elliott Wave, there are only TWO types of bullish patterns. The first is the classic 5-wave impulse where the underlying trends up in odd numbered waves and correcting each one in the even numbered waves. Think of a lightning bolt. 1 - Up off a low. 2 - Corrects 1, can't move below it. 3 - The breakout, usually the most impulsive and powerful wave. 4 - Corrects 3, can't break below the top of 1. 5 - The final move up, can be powerful, can be weak, but will almost always give a higher high. 5-wave impulsive moves start when the underlying is very bearish. Wave 1 starts by getting back to or breaking a key resistance area. Those who jump in during it are considered early adopters. The only support is the previous low. The vast majority of market participants are avoiding. Once it tops and rolls over, the majority are convinced new lows are coming. Some early adopters sell out or take profit. But a successful Wave 2 holds above the previous low, giving a higher low setup. It is followed by a consolidation as momentum builds up in the beginning of the 3rd wave. Once Wave 3 breaks out above Wave 1, smart technical traders start jumping in. Maybe it happens on an earnings report and some fundies jump in. It starts to really trend as more heads start to turn and realize that not only did it hold a higher low, buts its also working on a higher high. And if it is powerful enough, it will break more resistance and more and more participants will jump in. Eventually though, Wave 3 tops. Many early adopters take their profit and leave. It consolidates into a Wave 4, holding another higher low above the Wave 1 top. But as it starts Wave 5, the majority of the participants are now the late adopters and retail traders, with a spattering of early adopters who still have a small tranche left, already being in the green on smart sales at the top of Wave 3. Wave 5 then completes, often trapping late adopters who were sure it was going to the moon. Well this stock doesn't seem to be that. This thing overlaps all over the place. It could be an upward corrective wave of some sort before a drop to new lows. But as of now, it's playing along nicely with what its called a diagonal. A diagonal is a 5-wave structure. But this one is different. With diagonals, Wave 3 "can" overlap below the top of Wave 1. And one of the leading clues you might be in a diagonal is when the subwaves break down into segments of 3 wave moves instead of 5 wave moves. Why does this exist? Well, it starts off similar to a standard 5-wave move. A low is formed and a move is commenced off of it. But the succeeding retracement of that move is VERY deep, retracing almost all of the first move up. The next higher high is then around 100-161.8% of the first move, with the retracement that follows also very deep. All of this is likely happening within Wave (1) and Wave (2) of the diagonal. See, market participants are so polarized with the underlying, that they are whipping it back and forth, neither side able to ultimately win very long, yet the bulls slightly nudging out the bears with marginal higher highs and higher lows. It continues this whipsaw with every move, slowly melting upward. Instead of the whole 5-wave pattern targeting the 176.4%-200% extension of Wave 1 from the bottom of Wave 2 (what happens in a standard 5-wave impulse), it targets lower extension levels, typically the 161.8% level. Diagonals are either LEADING or ENDING moves. They CAN NOT be 3rd waves in larger patterns. So you will either get one as a first wave of a larger move, or you will get one to finish a larger move. In this case, it would be a leading diagonal of something much larger. So back to this specific stock. Thanks for enduring the educational section. Let's talk why I think this is a diagonal. You can see the wave labels clearly outlining the 3-wave moves within the larger 5-wave diagonal. They are labeled ABC within the (1)(2)(3)(4)(5). At present, this is within $1 of the ideal retracement level of the (3)rd wave for Wave (4). And it's clearly the 3rd segment of the ABC we would expect for a corrective (4)th wave. Not only that, it's holding the channel (but that's not required, just an area of support). Diagonals do often retrace deep, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it continue to the 76.4% correction area around $4.50. If you are risk averse, you could enter in the current area with stop just under $4.49. But as long as it holds the Wave (2) low, the diagonal stays valid. Ideally, it would be either contracting (trendline connecting (1), (3), and (5) contracting toward trendline connecting (2) and (4)) or expanding (same thing, but trendlines diverging away from each other), with expanding diagonals being pretty rare, but possible. They can tend to run in channels as well. So ideally, this doesn't get much lower as that would turn it into an expanding diagonal, which we know is rare, and leads to future bullish action being even MORE unreliable. Standard supply and demand zones are on the chart representing major support and resistance areas. If this holds support, it likely finds renewed strength up toward resistance and will bounce around in mostly unpredictable, overlapping structures that generally melt up. But once it engages the next C Wave, you should be able to track a standard 5-wave pattern within that C, as C-waves are always 5-wave structures. As I stated at the beginning, in no way is this a reliable structure. But you see things like this fairly often, and anywhere from second to monthly charts. The longer the duration, the more confusing, as you can have years of price movement that seem to make no sense. Ultimately, you have to watch supports and play smart. Is this something you want to align a lot of your money in? Probably not. It's unpredictable at best. And it could fail at any moment at worst since diagonals are "technically" corrective structures even when bullish. But is a chart like this giving up a setup for potentially phenomenal risk/reward? You bet. Just make sure and manage your risk. And you do that with your position sizing, using an appropriate stop *and if you get stopped, stay stopped. You set it for a reason, don't second guess), and understanding your targets, making sure to de-risk as quick as possible by selling enough at key levels to get your original equity back should it move upward. Feel free to ask questions. This was meant to be educational and shed some light on a complicated chart structure while providing a thesis for how to potentially play it. Standard disclosures: 1. This is 100% my idea. It was not sourced from any other avenue. 2. I am not invested in this company, though I am likely buying shares soon. 3. I am not paid to post content nor do I receive any contributions of any kind. 4. While this is outlining a potential profitable setup, this article is not investment advice. You should do your own due diligence on any company you invest in and apply your own trading strategies. 5. I know nothing about the fundamentals of this company. I suggest doing your due diligence if fundamentals are important to you. 6. Readers should always remember that markets are their own creature made up of millions of individuals and institutions each following some combo of inherent bullishness, inherent bearishness, fundamentals, technicals, stupidity, and pure emotion. Elliott Wave, and specifically Fibonacci Pinball (developed by Avi Gilburt at elliottwavetrader.net and prominent Seeking Alpha author), merely provide a framework based on the observed price action to date. 7. I know that while my wave outline is based on years and years of data and application from not only me, but some of the best in the game, I also know that markets do not follow a set path and that sentiment can remain irrational far longer than I can remain rational. That is why you MUST consider the alternatives and manage risk appropriately. Know the pivot zones that could lead to the primary path failing. I warrant that the information created and published by me on TradingView is not prohibited, doesn't constitute investment advice, and isn't created solely for qualified investors. My analysis is not a recommendation for a specific trade. My analysis outlines a potential scenario and provides risk assessments for multiple alternate scenarios. My analysis is purely educational.
NYSE:SMHIEducation
by mazag08