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Market is Weird (BTC down -15% ---> Altcoins -45%) Dump sign In this educational post we want to talk about investors money and Assets which is usually now down by 40% more or less and we also explain the reason of that before it happens in previous educational posts: Now lets talk about the Topic and why the market is weird and you all know that and the reason is: Take look at some major Coins i provide down here comparing to Bitcoin fall from Top to Low in previous month: 1. ETHUSDT(-48% fall): 2. DOGEUSDT(-58% dump): 3. SOLUSDT(-40% fall): 4. SHIBUSDT(-64% dump): 5. XRPUSDT(-48% dump): So Bitcoin is only down -17% from ATH and need only that much correction and soon after that it is recovering that loss but other Altcoins even did not catch new ATH and if they did now they need 50%-60% correction and dump?? Lets explain more about view of most Investors not the whales and then you see what is going on? most of the new investors or even old investors bought or buying Altcoins or meme coins or max they buy ETH because they usually say that here is Dream world and BTC can not do +300% in one day but my XRP can or my MEMECoin can do +1000% even or ... so most of traders and investors and new People have Altcoins instead of Bitcoin so the market now is receiving some fall and correction and may need that correction because we need down and Up and it is not always pump pump pump, so now most of investors which have Altcoins are in a huge loss so they open chart of Bitcoin and see every thing is fine and the supports are strong and this was short-term fall and soon my Altcoins will also rise to hit new ATH like The god bitcoin but it is not happening. and i think they are holding Bitcoin Up and hitting new ATH to sell more Altcoins to us, and make the chart of them looks good to enter now because now Altcoins charts looks great and they look like the correction and fall ended here but this may be the beginning. Notice: Long-term i am bullish too but if you are going to get panic if you see -40% or -50% on your wallet so take care because this usually happen in crypto and if you hold good coins it usually turn to +100 to +300% profit in next years or months. So take care and also i may be wrong and this weird market and dump in spot maybe was made by market to put out some panic holders and buy their token to pump market even more. so every thing is possible and this was my view that the more dump is coming. DISCLAIMER: ((trade based on your own decision)) <<press like👍 if you enjoy💚
Education
by MMBTtrader
7
Best Chart Patterns to Buy Gold in Uptrend One of the proven strategies to safely buy gold in uptrend is to look for THESE chart patterns. In this article, I will teach 4 best bullish price action patterns for Gold trading. All the patterns that we will discuss work perfectly on a daily, 4h, 1h time frames. The first strong bullish pattern, that we will discuss, is a bullish flag pattern. The pattern is based on 2 important elements: a bullish impulse leg and a bearish correctional movement afterward. The highs and lows of a correctional movement should respect 2 falling trend lines: one being a vertical resistance and one being a vertical support. These 2 trend lines will compose a falling parallel channel. Your strong bullish signal will be a breakout of the resistance of the flag - a candle close above that. The trading strategy of this pattern is very straightforward . After a violation of the resistance of the flag is confirmed , buy the market immediately or on a retest. Place stop loss order below the lowest low of the pattern, initial target - the high of the pattern with a potential bullish continuation to a new high. Look at a bullish flag pattern on Gold on a 4H time frame. A bullish breakout of its upper boundary was a perfect signal to buy XAUUSD. The variation of a bullish flag pattern is a falling wedge pattern. In a wedge pattern, a correctional movement occurs within a contracting channel based on 2 converging trend lines. The same strategy is applied for buying wedge pattern after a breakout . Above, you can see a falling wedge on Gold chart on a daily that was formed after a completion of a sharp bullish wave. Bullish violation of the resistance line of the pattern was a strong call to open long position. Trading hundreds of bullish flags and falling wedges, I noticed that the wedge patter has a little bit higher accuracy. The next chart pattern for buying Gold is called Ascending Triangle. After completing a bullish impulse and setting a higher high, the market should start consolidating . A consolidation should have a specific shape: the price should start respecting a horizontal resistance based on the last high and drop from that, setting equal high and a consequent higher low after every bearish movement. A reliable bullish signal will be a breakout - a candle close above a horizontal resistance line based on the equal highs. Buy Gold immediately after a violation, or set a buy limit order on a retest of a broken resistance. Safe stop loss will be at least below the last higher low. If you are taking the trade on 1H time frame, set it below the first higher low. Take profit will be the next potentially strong resistance. With the absence of historic resistances, your goal can be the next psychological level based on round numbers. That's a perfect example of the ascending triangle pattern that formed on Gold on a daily time frame. After a breakout of its resistance, a bullish rally initiated. Usually, the pattern is considered to be completed when the price sets at least 3 higher lows and 3 highers highs. If only 2 equals highs and 2 higher lows are set, such a pattern will be called Cup & Handle. Entry, stop loss and target rules are the same as in ascending triangle trading. That's a nice cup & handle pattern on Gold on a 4H. Violation of its resistance triggered a significant trend-following movement. The last pattern for buying Gold is horizontal parallel channel. It should form after a completion of a bullish wave and represent a consolidation and indecision. The price should set equal highs and consequent equal lows, respecting horizontal support and resistance. A strong bullish signal to buy Gold will be a breakout of a horizontal resistance of the channel and a candle close above. The principles of its trading strategy are very similar. Open long position on Gold immediately after a candle close above the resistance or on its retest. Stop loss should be placed below the support of the channel. Take profit will be the next historic or (if there is no) psychological level. Check this horizontal channel that was spotted on a daily time frame on Gold chart. After quite an extended consolidation within, the price violated its upper boundary and went up. All these chart patterns have a unique shape and structure and are very easy to recognize. Apply them for trend-trading Gold on any time frame and good luck in your journey. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
2
Three Outside Up and Down Candlestick PatternsThree Outside Up and Down Candlestick Patterns: How to Identify and Trade Them The three outside up and three outside down candlestick patterns offer traders a powerful way to analyse potential market reversals. Formed by 3 consecutive candlesticks they can signal key shifts in market sentiment, providing valuable insights into future price movements. In this article, we’ll break down how traders identify, trade, and confirm these patterns. What Are the Three Outside Up and Down Patterns? The three outside candlestick patterns are powerful tools in technical analysis that can help traders analyse potential market reversals. These patterns are made up of three consecutive candlesticks that reveal shifts in market sentiment. There are two variations: the three outside up and three outside down formations, each signalling opposite directions. In a three outside up pattern, the first candle is a small bearish one, followed by a second, larger bullish candle that completely engulfs the first. The third candle is another bullish one, confirming the momentum shift toward a potential upward trend. This type typically forms after a downtrend, hinting that the market could be turning bullish. On the flip side, the three outside down candlestick pattern starts with a small bullish candle. The second candle is a larger bearish one that engulfs the first, and the third is another bearish bar, signalling that sellers are gaining control. This formation usually appears after an uptrend and suggests a possible bearish reversal. Three outside candle patterns are particularly useful because they provide multiple points of confirmation—first, the engulfing candle, and then the third which further solidifies the trend. They often appear on various asset classes, from stocks to forex, and can be a valuable part of a trader's analysis. The Psychology Behind The Three Outside Patterns Understanding the psychology driving these patterns can give traders better insight into market dynamics. With the three outside up candlestick pattern, the initial small bearish candle shows hesitation, but the large bullish candle that follows reflects a surge in buyer confidence. The final bullish candle confirms that buyers have taken control, possibly signalling a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment. In contrast, the three outside down reflects a change from bullish optimism to bearish caution. The first candle shows a continuation of buying pressure, but the second, larger bearish bar reveals that sellers are stepping in with strength. The third bearish candle reinforces this shift in market sentiment. Identification Steps Identifying the three outside candle patterns is straightforward once you know what to look for. The key is focusing on the structure and order of the three candlesticks. Want to have a go at spotting the formation for yourself? Head over to FXOpen to access hundreds of real-time charts. Three Outside Up Pattern - First Candle: This is a small bearish candlestick that occurs within a downtrend. It suggests that the market still favours sellers, but it’s weak. - Second Candle: The crucial point of the formation. The second candle is a much larger bullish one that engulfs the entire body of the first one. - Third Candle: Another bullish candle that confirms the pattern. Its close is above the second’s close, solidifying the upward momentum. Three Outside Down Pattern - First Candle: This is a small bullish candle within an uptrend, reflecting weaker buying interest. - Second Candle: The key feature. A larger bearish bar fully engulfs the first one. - Third Candle: A second bearish candle follows, closing lower than the second and reinforcing the shift in sentiment toward selling pressure. Other Considerations - Engulfing Candle Size: The bigger the second candle in relation to the first, the stronger the signal. It indicates a more decisive shift in market sentiment. - Timeframe: They can appear across various timeframes, but they're expected to be more reliable on longer ones, such as daily or weekly charts. Lower timeframes can lead to wrong trade decisions. - Context: While the formation itself is important, it’s key to consider the broader market environment. Combining it with other forms of analysis, like trendlines or indicators, can increase the reliability of your trade decisions. Three Outside Candle Pattern: a Trading Strategy Trading the three outside up and three outside down patterns requires understanding both how to spot the signal and how to manage the trade. Here’s a step-by-step approach to using these patterns in real-world scenarios. Entering a Trade For both types, traders typically wait for the close of the third candle to confirm the pattern before making any moves. For the three outside up, a trader may analyse the close of the third bullish bar as confirmation of potential upward momentum. In contrast, for the three outside down, the third bearish candle indicates potential downward momentum. It’s common to enter trades at the open of the next candlestick, following the pattern, but waiting for a slight pullback or additional confirmation from another technical indicator (e.g., RSI or moving averages) is also a prudent strategy. Stop Loss Placement To potentially manage risk, traders often place stop losses at strategic points on the chart. In the case of a three outside up, it’s typical to place a stop loss just below the low of the engulfing (second) candle. This allows some breathing room but potentially protects against the risk of a reversal. For the three outside down, a stop loss is commonly set just above the high of the engulfing candlestick. Take Profit Strategy Setting a take-profit target usually involves identifying potential resistance or support levels. For a three outside up, traders often target the next key resistance level. It’s also common to use a risk-reward ratio of 1:2 or higher, ensuring that the potential returns justify the risk taken. In the case of a three outside down pattern, traders aim for the next support level as a potential area to take returns. Again, maintaining a favourable risk-reward ratio is crucial in preserving long-term trades. How Traders Confirm Three Outside Candlestick Patterns Confirming the three outside up and three outside down patterns is crucial for potentially avoiding false signals and increasing the reliability of your analysis. While the formation can signal a potential reversal, using additional tools to verify the move can help traders make more accurate decisions. Here are a few ways traders typically confirm the pattern: - Momentum Indicators: Traders often use momentum tools like the relative strength index, moving average convergence divergence, or stochastic oscillator to gauge whether the pattern aligns with market momentum. If these indicators show overbought or oversold conditions, it can confirm the strength of the signal. - Volume Analysis: An increase in volume on the second and third candlesticks adds weight to the analysis, suggesting that more market participants are involved in the move. Higher volume often indicates stronger conviction behind the shift. - Trendlines and Moving Averages: Many traders use trendlines or moving averages to confirm the pattern’s validity. For a three outside up, a breakout above a downtrend line or crossing above a key moving average reinforces the bullish signal. For a three outside down, a break below a trendline or drop under a moving average strengthens the bearish case. Common Mistakes to Avoid While these patterns can provide useful insights, there are common mistakes traders make when using them. Understanding them can help improve analysis and decision-making. - Ignoring Volume: One of the key signs of a strong formation is the higher volume on the second and third candles. Without this, it may lack the strength needed to suggest a real market shift. - Use in Isolation: Relying solely on the candlestick pattern without considering other indicators or market conditions often leads to misleading signals. It’s important to incorporate other technical tools to build a stronger case. - Forcing the Pattern: Traders sometimes try to identify the pattern even when it doesn’t meet the criteria, leading to poor decisions. Both the engulfing and confirmation bars need to be clear and distinct for the formation to be valid. - Overlooking Trend Context: They are more reliable when they occur after a clear uptrend or downtrend. Attempting to trade them in a range-bound market or against the prevailing trend can reduce their effectiveness. The Bottom Line The three outside patterns are valuable tools for identifying potential market reversals when combined with other technical analysis methods. In combination with sound risk management, these formations can offer traders a boost in their strategies. To put what you’ve learned into practice across more than 700 markets, consider opening an FXOpen account. FXOpen offers several advanced trading platforms, low costs, and blazing-fast trade execution speeds designed to upgrade your trading experience. FAQ What Is the Pattern of Three Outside Candlesticks? The three outside candlesticks pattern is a reversal formation made up of three consecutive candles. In the three outside up, a small bearish candle is followed by a larger bullish one that engulfs it. A third bullish candle confirms the upward move. The three outside down is the opposite, starting with a small bullish candlestick engulfed by a larger bearish one, with a final bearish candle confirming the potential downtrend. What Happens After Three Outside Up? After a three outside up, the market may experience a bullish reversal. The formation suggests that buyers are gaining momentum, and traders may see upward price movement following the confirmation of the third candle. What Is the Success Rate of the Three Outside Up? The success rate of the three outside up pattern varies depending on market conditions and timeframe. While it can be an effective reversal signal, it’s expected to be more reliable when combined with other indicators like volume or trendlines. What Do Three Candlesticks Mean? Three candlesticks refer to a specific pattern where three consecutive candles form a signal, often indicating potential reversals or trend confirmations in technical analysis. What Is 3 Candlestick Strategy? The 3 candlestick strategy involves identifying patterns like three outside up or three outside down, where 3 candles signal potential market reversals or continuations. It’s often used to analyse future price movements. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
PROFIT & LEARN: NEWS TRADING (MY VIEWS) Introduction: “Hello, traders! Welcome back to ‘Profit and Learn.’ Today, we’re diving into a fascinating topic: how markets can move contrary to news. It’s a common misconception that positive news always leads to positive market movements. Let’s explore why this isn’t always the case.” Main Content: “Markets often price in expected news ahead of time. This means that by the time the news is released, the market has already reacted. Media and PR play a significant role in shaping sentiment, often creating a disconnect between actual news and market reactions. For instance, positive news can sometimes lead to a market drop due to profit-taking or because the news was already expected.” Case Study: “Let’s look at a recent example with USD/JPY. Despite all news items coming out positive, USD/JPY made a strong move downward. This can happen when markets have already priced in the positive news, or when traders take profits, causing a reversal.” Key Takeaways: “Always understand market psychology. Don’t rely solely on news headlines. Consider the bigger picture and broader market context before making trading decisions.” Conclusion: “Thanks for tuning in! Remember, successful trading requires a holistic approach. Stay informed, stay cautious, and happy trading!”
Education
by moneymagnateash
1
Thoughts on Technical Analysis (Part 1) 1- Taking market entries at exhaustion figures (accumulations or distributions) is a poor investment if the preceding trends show strength (especially if the trendline hasn't been broken or they are in contradiction with balance points of higher timeframes, like a 20 EMA). Secure reversals occur in contexts of weakness. 2- Thinking of price charts as something that either goes up or down is a mistake, as markets tend to go through long periods of indecision. We should avoid these circumstances unless a study in higher timeframes provides us with a favorable context. 3- Trades where the Stop Loss (SL) is protected by price formations, (especially if the target shows a good risk-reward ratio) not only add security to our trades but also attract more participants, increasing the chances of success. 4- Forcing market entries (or analysis) implies a lack of experience, system, or investment methodology. Even discretionary investors express that the best opportunities are evident at first glance. 5- Not being flexible to market changes is often more a matter of ego than inexperience. 6- There is no risk management nor is it possible to perform backtesting without fixed, immutable parameters. Any minimal change when executing our market entries significantly impacts our success rate. 7- We should avoid analyzing the market starting from lower timeframes, as our analysis might be biased once we approach higher timeframes. Higher timeframes clarify. 8- We should avoid using several indicators of the same type (oscillators or trend), as the signals will be relatively similar in the same context, which does not provide a significant advantage. A hundred aligned oscillator crossovers in the same timeframe won't make a difference. 9- The best quantitative trading systems are trained based on historical patterns. Moreover, harmony and repetitive patterns attract more investors. The root of Technical Analysis is the historical pattern, and a pattern of behavior increases the probability of success. 10- The best market entries are in balance zones, and even reversals in lower timeframe trends (in disequilibrium) generally increase their reliability when they find a balance point in higher timeframes. 11- A engulfing candle is a trend in a lower timeframe, so any formation or pattern can be contextualized. 12- There are two approaches to tackling a price chart: the quantitative and the discretionary (or logical). Both approaches recognize that the market forms patterns with some predictive capacity, but they accept that most of the time randomness prevails. 13- The fathers of Technical Analysis (Charles Dow and Richard W. Schabacker) claim that lower timeframes are more prone to manipulation. Another interesting fact is that documented quantitative systems decrease their success rate at lower timeframes (some becoming unusable at 1-hour or higher timeframes). 14- Major changes in price charts are caused by minorities (who concentrate more wealth and influence) that are better informed and capitalized. Notes: Some classic authors taught how periods of great popular euphoria generate market corrections, as in the case of Charles Dow; while others directly created methods to understand and exploit manipulation, like Richard D. Wyckoff and his "strong hands". The popular euphoria generated by the news that the SEC would allow the creation of the first Bitcoin ETFs, and BlackRock's entry into the Bitcoin ETF market did not cause the expected rise, but a correction. Also, Donald Trump's rise to power and encouraging news generated popular euphoria which translated into another correction. Currently, many stocks, especially tech ones, are at inflection points according to the historical record of price action, some showing exhaustion figures. It wouldn't surprise me if a series of "geopolitical circumstances" justified the corrections. 15- Colorful charts increase the irrationality and risk appetite of investors (and investment platforms know this). Notes: Investors in feudal Japan used red and black to represent price fluctuations. Bullish candles were red, and bearish ones were black. With the red color, investors remained alert and skeptical about gains, and black was a neutral color meant to convey calm in the face of trend reversals. Libraries, offices, universities, and any place where maximum intellectual performance is required are decorated with neutral colors. Recreational places like bars, clubs, or casinos are extremely colorful.
Education
by Especulador96
THE SKEWED GAMES. UNDERSTANDING CBOE SKEW INDEX (SKEW)The CBOE Skew Index (SKEW, or "BLACK SWAN" Index) is a financial metric developed by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) to measure the perceived tail risk in the S&P 500 over a 30-day horizon. Tail risk refers to the probability of extreme market movements, such as significant declines or "black swan" events, which are rare but have severe consequences. Here's a detailed explanation of its role and implications in financial markets: Key Features of the CBOE:SKEW Index Measurement of Tail Risk. The SKEW Index quantifies the likelihood of returns that deviate two or more standard deviations from the mean. It focuses on outlier events, unlike the VIX (Volatility Index), which measures implied volatility around at-the-money (ATM) options. Implied Volatility Skew. The index is derived from the pricing of out-of-the-money (OTM) S&P 500 options. It reflects the market's demand for protection against downside risks, which leads to higher implied volatility for OTM puts compared to calls. Range and Interpretation The SKEW Index typically ranges from 100 to 150. A value near 100 suggests a normal distribution of returns with low perceived tail risk. Higher values (e.g., above 130) indicate increased concern about potential extreme negative events, with heightened demand for protective options. How It Works The SKEW Index is calculated using a portfolio of OTM options on the S&P 500. The methodology involves measuring the slope of implied volatility across different strike prices, capturing how much more expensive OTM puts are relative to calls. This steepness reflects market participants' expectations of asymmetric risks, particularly on the downside. To make a picture clear, we just simply use 125-Day SMA of SKEW Index. Since multi year high has occurred, market turbulence come as usual. Practical Implications Market Sentiment. A rising SKEW Index signals growing fear of extreme downside risks. For example, during periods of economic uncertainty or geopolitical tensions, investors may hedge portfolios more aggressively, driving up the index. Conversely, lower readings suggest calm market conditions with balanced expectations for future returns. Portfolio Management Investors use the SKEW Index as a barometer for hedging costs. High SKEW levels indicate that protecting against tail risks has become more expensive (and probably active). It also helps traders assess whether market pricing aligns with their own risk expectations. Historical Context Historically, spikes in the SKEW Index have preceded major market downturns or volatility events, such as the "Flash Crash" in 2010, Bear market in early 2000s (dot com collapse), WFC in 2007-09, market falls in late 2018 and in 2022. Complement to VIX While both indices measure risk, they address different aspects: VIX captures overall market volatility, while SKEW focuses on asymmetry and extreme event probabilities. Limitations In summary, the CBOE Skew Index provides valuable insights into market participants' perception of tail risks and their willingness to pay for protection against extreme events. It complements other volatility measures like the VIX and serves as a critical tool for risk management and market analysis.
SEducation
by PandorraResearch
Day Trading: A Comprehensive GuideDay trading is a dynamic trading style that attracts many traders, particularly those looking to capitalize on short-term market movements. Unlike other trading strategies that span days, weeks, or even months, day trading involves executing trades within the same trading day, taking advantage of price fluctuations throughout that period. This guide will explore the essence of day trading, its strategies, pros and cons, and tips for success, delving deeper into the intricacies of the market and the techniques required to navigate it effectively. What is Day Trading? Day trading involves the buying and selling of financial instruments within a single trading day. Traders do not hold positions overnight; instead, they aim to profit from daily market movements. This approach is particularly appealing to novice traders, who may believe that frequent trades can exponentially increase profits. However, the fast-paced nature of day trading requires discipline and a solid trading plan, as emotional decision-making can lead to significant losses. Traders typically utilize various time frames, often ranging from one minute (M1) to one hour (H1). While beginners may gravitate towards shorter time frames like M5 or M15, these often result in increased noise and the potential for quickly hitting stop-loss orders. Successful day traders understand that consistent profitability stems from maintaining discipline and developing a robust trading strategy rather than chasing quick wins. Understanding Market Psychology Market psychology plays a significant role in day trading. Fear, greed, and anxiety are the primary emotions driving investor behavior, leading to price movements. Traders must remain aware of market sentiment, gauging the mood of other traders and market participants. This involves: 1. Sentiment Analysis: Assessing current market sentiment can help traders position themselves correctly. Bullish sentiment often leads to higher prices, while bearish sentiment causes prices to drop. 2. Economic Indicators: Monitoring economic indicators and news releases helps traders anticipate potential price movements, influencing their trading decisions. 3. Support and Resistance: Key support and resistance levels indicate areas of price stability and potential for price reversal. Read also: --- Strategies for Successful Day Trading --- To thrive in day trading, adherence to particular strategies is essential. Here’s a look at some of the most common techniques employed by day traders: 1. Scalping Scalping is one of the oldest and most popular strategies in day trading. It involves making numerous trades throughout the day to capture small price movements. Scalpers analyze charts and execute quick trades based on technical indicators, entering and exiting positions in mere minutes. This method thrives in low-volatility environments, where assets tend to fluctuate within tight ranges, allowing traders to realize small but consistent profits. Example of Scalping on 5-Minute EURUSD with Simple Moving Average and Standard RSI Indicator 2. Reverse Trading Reverse trading capitalizes on market range-bound conditions. Traders identify key support and resistance levels and execute trades based on the price retracing from these points. This strategy typically requires a combination of technical analysis and an understanding of fundamental data. It's crucial to remain vigilant about scheduled news releases, as these can create sudden price surges or drops that impact positions. Read also: 3. Momentum Trading Momentum trading relies on the strength of existing price movements. This strategy involves entering trades in the direction of a prevailing trend, often guided by fundamental analysis and technical indicators such as Moving Averages. Traders monitor economic news and events that may influence market dynamics, utilizing these insights to execute long or short trades accordingly. Read also: 4. Range Trading Range trading involves buying an asset when its price falls to the lower boundary of a trading range and selling when it reaches the upper boundary. This strategy requires a keen eye for identifying support and resistance levels and a deep understanding of market volatility. Read also: Pros and Cons of Day Trading Day trading comes with a distinct set of advantages and challenges. Here’s a balanced view of its pros and cons: Pros: - Access to Capital: Traders can start day trading with lower capital requirements since each trade can yield a profit in just a few pips. - Flexibility: Traders have control over their trading schedule, allowing them to choose when and how long to engage in trades. - Potential for High Returns: Successful day trading can produce significant profits compared to longer-term strategies, provided that trades are executed prudently and systematically. Cons: - High Risk: Day trading is inherently risky, especially for those inexperienced in market dynamics. The potential for quick losses is significant. - Psychological Pressure: The fast-paced nature of day trading can lead to emotional decision-making, which can derail even the most disciplined traders. Read also: - Time Commitment: Day traders must be patient and ready to dedicate long hours to monitoring the markets, which may not suit everyone. - Commissions and Fees: Trading frequently can lead to increased commissions and fees, eating into potential profits and making it essential to maintain a high win-to-loss ratio. Managing Risks in Day Trading Risk management is paramount to surviving in the world of day trading. Here are some risk management techniques to consider: 1. Position Sizing: Proper position sizing is critical to risk management in day trading. This involves allocating the right amount of capital to each trade to minimize the impact of potential losses. 2. Stops and Limits: Traders use stops and limits to limit potential losses. Stops are triggered when prices reach a predefined level, closing out the position, while limits are triggered when prices reach a certain level, closing out the position. 3. Risk Reward Ratio: Setting a risk reward ratio helps traders maintain profitability. This involves setting a ratio of reward to risk, typically around 1:3 to 1:4. Read also: /b] and.. and... Conclusion Day trading can be a lucrative venture for those willing to invest time in understanding market mechanics, developing strategies, and exercising disciplined decision-making. While it may appear attractive, particularly for beginners, the reality is that successful day trading requires meticulous planning, emotional control, and a well-thought-out strategy. For those new to day trading, practicing on a demo account is advised to build skills and confidence. Starting with simpler strategies, such as pullback trading or scalping, can help beginners navigate the complexities of intraday trading. Ultimately, comprehensive knowledge of technical analysis and a clear grasp of market sentiment are critical for achieving consistent success in day trading. ✅ Please share your thoughts about this article in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my post. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Education
by FOREXN1
1
Mastering EUR/USD TradingMastering EUR/USD Trading EUR/USD is the most traded forex pair, offering unparalleled liquidity and potential opportunities for traders of all levels. The exchange rate between the euro and the US dollar reflects the economic relationship between the two global powerhouses. In this article, we’ll explore what makes the EUR/USD pair so popular, the factors influencing its price, and how to approach the pair. What Is the EUR/USD Forex Pair? Although you definitely know what the EUR/USD pair is, we can’t start this article without a short overview. The EUR/USD pair represents the exchange rate between the euro (EUR) and the US dollar (USD), showing how many US dollars are needed to buy one euro. It's the most traded currency pair in the world, thanks to its significant role in the global economy. For traders, this often means tight spreads, high trading volumes, and potential opportunities in various market conditions. Introduced in 1999 with the euro's creation, the EUR/USD pair reflects the economic relationship between the Eurozone—comprising 20 European countries—and the United States. It’s more than just a number on a chart; it’s a barometer for the performance of two of the largest economic regions. Movements in this pair are influenced by factors like interest rates set by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), economic indicators such as GDP growth, and geopolitical events impacting either region. One standout feature of EUR/USD is its responsiveness to economic news. For example, a strong US jobs report might drive demand for the dollar, causing the pair to fall. Similarly, announcements from the ECB about monetary policy can send ripples through the market. This responsiveness makes EUR/USD a popular choice for traders who thrive on analysis of market dynamics. Why Traders Choose EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair’s unique characteristics make it stand out in the market, offering potential opportunities and strategic flexibility. - Unmatched Liquidity: EUR/USD is the most liquid forex pair, meaning there’s strong trading activity. This high liquidity often translates to tighter spreads, which reduce transaction costs for traders and makes it popular among scalpers and day traders. - 24/5 Accessibility: The pair can be traded almost anytime during the week, with peak activity during the overlap of London and New York trading sessions. This accessibility makes it popular as traders can capitalise on this pair regardless of their schedule. - Macro Sensitivity: The pair responds sharply to macroeconomic developments, such as interest rate decisions, inflation data, and employment figures. This sensitivity may make it appealing to traders who thrive on analysis of major economic events. - Relatively Lower Volatility: While the pair offers ample price movement for potential trading opportunities, it’s often less volatile than emerging market pairs, making it a more measured option for risk-conscious traders. - Diverse Strategies: Its price action accommodates a variety of trading styles, from trend-following and range trading to news-based strategies. Whether you’re a short-term scalper or a long-term position trader, there’s flexibility to tailor your approach. Key Factors Influencing EUR/USD Movements The EUR/USD pair’s price movements are driven by a mix of economic, political, and market dynamics. Understanding these influences can help traders better analyse its behaviour. Economic Indicators Economic releases from the eurozone and the United States are key drivers of the pair's movements. Key reports include GDP growth, inflation rates, employment figures, and manufacturing activity. For instance, a strong US non-farm payroll report might boost the dollar, causing EUR/USD to drop. Similarly, weak eurozone inflation data could pressure the euro lower. Regularly monitoring economic calendars is crucial, as even small deviations from expectations can cause noticeable shifts. Central Bank Policies The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) wield significant influence. Interest rate decisions, monetary policy announcements, and commentary from central bank officials often trigger immediate reactions. A hawkish Fed, signalling higher interest rates, can strengthen the dollar, while dovish ECB policies might weaken the euro. Traders often focus on speeches from figures like the Fed Chair or ECB President for clues about future policy changes. Geopolitical Events Political developments can create volatility. For example, elections, trade negotiations, or economic sanctions affecting the US or eurozone can shift sentiment. Historical events like Brexit significantly impacted the euro, while US-China trade tensions affected the dollar’s performance. Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite The EUR/USD pair is influenced by global market sentiment. During periods of risk aversion, the dollar often strengthens as a so-called safe-haven currency. Conversely, a risk-on environment, where investors seek higher-yielding assets, may support the euro. For example, during times of financial instability, traders may gravitate toward the relative security of the dollar, impacting the pair’s direction. Commodity Prices and Trade Balances While less direct, trade balances and commodity price changes also play a role. Higher commodity prices can weaken the euro due to increased import costs for the Eurozone, while benefiting the US as a commodity producer. Similarly, the Eurozone's trade surplus tends to support the euro, whereas the US trade deficit can pressure the dollar. Shifts in these factors often lead to fluctuations in the exchange rate. How to Trade EUR/USD A well-rounded EUR/USD trading strategy involves several key steps that help traders build a structured approach adaptable to market dynamics. 1. Finding a Broker Offering EUR/USD Trading To start trading EUR/USD, a broker providing forex trading services is essential. Many brokers offer the pair, but traders often prioritise competitive spreads, low fees, and reliable execution. For example, FXOpen provides EUR/USD trading with access to 4 advanced platforms, tight spreads from 0.0 pips, low commissions from $1.50 per lot, and fast execution speeds based on a wide range of liquidity providers. 2. Choosing a Trading Style The high liquidity of the EUR/USD pair allows traders to choose different strategies based on their objectives and market involvement: - Scalping: High liquidity and volatility during market events of EUR/USD allow traders to take advantage of scalping. - Day Trading: Day traders may also capitalise on significant market liquidity and volatility of the euro to US dollar pair. - Swing Trading: As the pair movements depend on macroeconomic analysis, trades may focus on price swings over days or weeks. - Position Trading: EUR/USD moves in solid market trends. So, those who prefer a longer-term strategy could apply it to this market. 3. Understanding and Analysing the Market Environment EUR/USD moves between trending and ranging phases. Identifying these conditions helps traders adapt their strategies. Tools like moving averages, trendlines, and oscillators such as Stochastic or Awesome Oscillator are commonly used to gauge market momentum. For ranging markets, traders may focus on support and resistance levels to anticipate price reversals. A clear technical strategy often includes identifying entry and exit points. This could involve analysing chart patterns, candlestick formations, or tools like Fibonacci retracements. Consistency in applying these methods helps traders build confidence in their analysis. 4. Understanding the Macroeconomic Environment EUR/USD reacts strongly to macroeconomic developments. Traders often assess economic indicators like interest rate changes or inflation reports, alongside sentiment-driven events such as central bank statements. Combining macroeconomic understanding with technical tools can provide a well-rounded view of the pair’s dynamics. 5. Considering Timeframes and Trading Sessions EUR/USD is most active during the overlap between the London and New York sessions. Short-term traders often focus on these times for potentially higher liquidity, usually using the 1-minute to 1-hour charts, while longer-term traders may not be as session-dependent, typically relying on 4-hour to 1-week charts. 6. Using Risk Management Traders typically integrate risk management into their approach. This includes using stop losses, understanding the impact of leverage, and sizing positions appropriately to manage risk exposure. By balancing risk and reward, traders aim to protect their capital while seeking returns. Challenges of EUR/USD Trading EUR/USD trading comes with its own set of challenges, despite its popularity, including: Volatility During Key Events EUR/USD is highly sensitive to economic data releases and central bank announcements. For example, higher-than-expected inflation data from the US can trigger a sharp rally in the dollar, pushing the pair lower. These movements can create potential opportunities but also increase the risk of losses if trades aren’t carefully managed. Overlapping Influences EUR/USD is driven by two major economies, meaning traders monitor a broad range of factors. For example, strong US economic data may boost the dollar, while strong eurozone growth could simultaneously support the euro, creating a mixed market reaction. Keeping track of both regions’ data releases and news can feel overwhelming, particularly since the euro sees releases for several key economies, like France and Germany, as well as the broader eurozone. Interest Rate Differentials Interest rate expectations between the ECB and the Fed significantly impact the pair. A surprise divergence in monetary policy may lead to rapid shifts in the EUR/USD, catching traders off-guard. Likewise, ignoring fundamentals, especially differentials in monetary policy, can lead a trader to rely too heavily on technical analysis, which may mean they trade against a strong trend driven by macroeconomics. Session Volatility The pair’s most active periods occur during the London and New York trading sessions. While this high liquidity can offer opportunities, it also means sharp intraday moves are more likely. Traders unprepared for this session-specific volatility may find themselves exposed to quick losses. The Bottom Line Trading EUR/USD offers potential opportunities thanks to its liquidity, accessibility, and responsiveness to market dynamics. This major forex pair may suit traders of all styles. Ready to start? Open an FXOpen account today and access EUR/USD trading with competitive spreads from 0.0 pips, low commissions from $1.50 per lot, and advanced tools. FAQ Why Is EUR/USD Most Traded? EUR/USD is the most traded forex pair due to its deep liquidity and accessibility. As the currencies of two of the world’s largest economies—the eurozone and the United States—it attracts traders globally. When to Trade EUR/USD? According to theory, the best time to trade EUR/USD is usually during the London and New York trading sessions overlap, roughly between 1:00 PM and 5:00 PM GMT (winter time) and 12:00 PM and 4:00 PM GMT (summer time). This period usually offers higher liquidity and more significant price movements, which appeal to traders using intraday strategies. Which Pair Correlates with EUR/USD? EUR/USD often positively correlates with GBP/USD. These relationships stem from economic ties and shared market influences. Is Gold and EUR/USD Correlated? Gold and EUR/USD occasionally move together because both are inversely linked to the US dollar. When the dollar weakens, both gold and the euro may gain value, creating periods of positive correlation. How Many Pips Does EUR/USD Move Daily? According to statistics, the EUR/USD pair typically moves between 50 and 100 pips daily, depending on market conditions and news events. How Do You Trade the EUR/USD Forex Pair? Traders often combine technical analysis with macroeconomic insights to navigate EUR/USD. Potential high liquidity and tight spreads support strategies ranging from scalping to position trading. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
Gann Trading Strategy Lessons: Mastering Time & Price Cycles. Gann Trading Strategy Lessons: Mastering Gann’s Time & Price Cycle for Precise Market Reversals! In this Gann Trading Strategy Lessons, we dive deep into W.D. Gann’s powerful trading strategy using the 144-Time Cycle and 225-Price Cycle, specifically applied to the EUR/USD pair. This method helps traders identify high-probability reversal points by aligning time and price for precise market entries. What You’ll Learn: 1. Understanding Gann’s concept of periodic and rhythmic movements. 2. How to apply the 144-time cycle as a turning point in the market. 3. The significance of the 225-price cycle and why markets move in multiples of 225. 4. Step-by-step guide to spotting time and price equilibrium for trade setups 5. Real chart examples to see how this strategy works in live market conditions Key Levels to Watch: - Monitor 144, 288, and 432 bars for market reactions - Measure price movement in 225-pip cycles for trade confirmation - Use trading tools like TradingView’s date and price range tools to analyse charts effectively Why This Works: Gann believed that time and price must balance before a trend reversal occurs. This strategy allows traders to anticipate major moves, reduce risk, and enter trades at the best possible levels. 📌 Timestamps: Mastering Gann’s Time & Price Cycle for Precise Market Reversals. 00:00 ▶️ Introduction 00:52 ▶️ Financial Disclaimer. 01:19 ▶️ Gann’s Market Cycle Theory. 02:32 ▶️ Gann’s most important time cycles — The Gann 144-time cycle. 03:27 ▶️Gann Time and Price Analysis Using the 225-Price Cycle and Squaring Techniques. 04:38 ▶️ How to identify the Gann cycles on the charts. 06:04 ▶️ Gann Time & Price Cycle - Example 1 08:30 ▶️ Gann Time & Price Cycle - Example 2 10:59 ▶️ Gann Periodicity, Disharmony & Strength Points 12:00 ▶️ Gann Key Takeaways & Conclusion. Gann Trading Strategies with a focus on Time & Price Cycles, including the 255 and 144 cycles, to predict market reversals with precision. This lesson covers Gann’s price-time synchronization, squaring techniques, and cyclical patterns, helping traders identify key turning points and trend shifts accurately.
CAPITALCOM:US500Education
by GannAstroTrader
My experiences and knowledge about crappy strategies.Hello guys, I hope you are doing well. Today I am a little upset that some of you are following or paying money to mentor people who have no knowledge of the market. This market does not revolve around 4 trend lines and channels and fake breakouts and such nonsense. All of these are not wrong, they are just immature and a bit beginner-friendly. Today a person contacted me privately and complained about losing capital and that this market has no logic and basis and thought the whole market was gambling. But it is not as he thought. I told him: Send me the journal. In response, he asked me what is a journal? (: Mistakes in this market are the best teacher Mistakes are the best teacher if you journal and realize your mistake. I said to him: Don't you save your charts? He said: Why should I? (: One of your main problems is not saving your charts. Always save your charts and refer to them again to realize your mistakes. Well, let's get back to the main topic. Look, guys, the market revolves around liquidity and support and resistance (a simpler example of liquidity is the fake breakout). If you want to succeed in this market, you have to learn everything professionally. Never trade on a time frame lower than 5 minutes. Each new day that starts, clear your chart and draw everything again. This will make you practice. Sometimes you will realize your mistakes from the previous day. Never be greedy. Don't trade emotionally. Always check the market trend from daily to 15 minutes and write it down on paper and keep it on your desk so that you are always focused. For a spike trend, go against the trend for 15 minutes. Don't trade against the market trend. Don't get carried away by the trend line (: Always be patient. Before trading, ask yourself: Is this trade safe? Did I follow all the points of my strategy? And write down the answer you gave yourself on a piece of paper. Always manage your money.
Education
by aryaaparsii
Master the ICT Killzones & Sessions Indicator on TradingViewDiscover how to install, configure, and use the ICT Killzones & Times Indicator on TradingView to improve your trading precision! 📊 This powerful tool highlights key market sessions, previous highs and lows, and liquidity zones to help traders make informed decisions. 🔍 In this video, we cover: ✅ How to install the ICT Killzones & Times Indicator on TradingView. ✅ Step-by-step configuration for optimal settings. ✅ How to use session highs/lows, daily opens, and liquidity zones in your strategy. ✅ Practical examples of how this indicator enhances trade execution. 📊 Why use this indicator? It automatically marks session ranges for Asia, London, and New York. It highlights previous day/week highs and lows for better market structure analysis. It provides session timing and key price levels to refine entries and exits. 💬 What do you think of this indicator? Let us know in the comments! Also, tell us if you’d like reviews of other TradingView tools or swing trading strategies. 🔗 Subscribe now for more expert trading tips, tool reviews, and real-time market analysis!
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Education
by BinvestorsTrading
EMAs V.2This article will enhance the definition and guidelines for using EMA in the ARZ Trading System. General Conditions and Significance: Trend Direction: Price should pull back (at least once) and then resume making new highs/lows, with the candle body (uptrend/downtrend). Trend Strength: the steepness of the EMA slope. Ranging: If the EMA is flat or the price repeatedly crosses and closes without pullbacks, it indicates a range. Each EMA's usage: 7EMA: Spike and Master Candle Identification. Spike: a trending market based on 7EMA. Once the price is crossed and closed 7EMA with a candle body, look to the left to find the Master Candle. 20EMA: Minor Structure. Always trade in the direction of minor trends unless it’s a minor range. 50EMA: Major Structure. Serves as a key level to indicate default buying or selling conditions: if the price is above, it suggests buying; if below, it suggests selling. 100EMA and 200EMA: Just as a key level for analyzing price. Let's analyze this chart: In candle #1, the price has crossed and closed and created a new high. So it is a pullback and we are in an upward Spike. In candle, X price has crossed and closed below 7EMA, after giving at least one pullback to it. So we look to the left to find the MC (Master Candle) which is candle #2. In candle #3, the price has crossed and closed below 20EMA, so if in the future the price can't break the 7EMA upward, it most likely will continue a downward Spike until reaching the LTP of the MC (which happened after giving pullback to 7EMA in candle #4). We expect this behaviour. After breaking the LTP, although the candle is huge, it wasn't able to break the 50EMA (Exhaustion Candle). It is a sign of a possible reversal to the MC. Candle #6 is a Signal Bar (which will be covered in future) and confirms it. In the circled area, we are in MC (Ranging Market) and this type of behaviour is normal. Until we see another Signal Bar at #7 which is after rejecting the price from multiple levels (LTP, mid-LTP, 7EMA, 20EMA). A clear sign of continuing upward. In candle #8, the price crossed and closed above UTP, followed by a pullback and a higher close in candle #9. At the same time, we reached the next TP based on UTP_2. Becaused price has reached UTP_2, if 7EMA crossed and closed again we have to find a new MC. Candle #10 shows us that Candle #9 is the new MC. At candle #11 we have a Signal Bar at LTP and 20EMA. The perfect setup to go long!
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by forexise
The Tariff War: America, Mexico, Canada, and China Dear readers, my name is Andrea Russo, and I am a trader. Today, I want to talk to you about a significant shift that is shaking global markets: the United States has decided to freeze tariffs on Mexico and Canada, while China has introduced counter-tariffs. This strategic move is likely to have significant repercussions on international trade and global economic dynamics, with direct effects on currencies and the Forex market. Freezing Tariffs on Mexico and Canada: A Change in Strategy? Under the Biden administration, the United States has decided to freeze tariffs on Mexico and Canada, two vital trading partners. This move may seem like a de-escalation in the trade war, but it is actually an attempt to strengthen ties with neighboring countries, thus facilitating trade flow and stimulating the internal economy. With rising commodity prices and the ongoing energy crisis, Washington aims to avoid escalating tariffs that could further aggravate an already fragile economic situation. A Strategic Choice in an Unstable World Despite the good intentions, the global context remains uncertain. The decision to suspend tariffs is partly motivated by the need to slow down inflation and mitigate the negative effects on global supply chains, especially in North America. However, this could also be a signal that the United States is focusing on internal challenges before shifting its focus to a larger battle — the one with China. China’s Response: Counter-Tariffs and Retaliation On the other side, China has not delayed in responding by imposing new tariffs on U.S. goods, particularly in key sectors such as technology, agriculture, and automotive. These tariffs are expected to have a direct impact on U.S. companies that export to China but may also influence global trade dynamics. China has clearly made a strategic move, one that goes beyond economic revenge: it's a signal that Beijing is not willing to make concessions on an issue that is critical for its geopolitical standing. Impact on Financial Markets and Forex Now that we've outlined the key strategic moves, let's take a look at how these developments will affect financial markets, especially the Forex market. The combination of the potential tariff freeze on Mexico and Canada and the tightening tariffs on China will undoubtedly affect currency dynamics, creating both opportunities and risks for traders. 1. Impact on the U.S. Dollar (USD) The dollar may be influenced in contrasting ways by these developments. On the one hand, the tariff freeze on Mexico and Canada could be positive for the dollar, as it may favor a stronger North American economy, stimulating trade flows and reducing uncertainty. In particular, sectors such as automotive, energy, and agriculture may benefit from lower costs. On the other hand, tensions with China could continue to create geopolitical uncertainties, which historically have led to greater volatility in the dollar. In the event of escalation, the effect could be an increase in demand for safe-haven assets like gold and the Japanese yen, leading to a temporary weakness in the dollar. Forex Trading Strategy: If the tariff freeze leads to economic stabilization in North America, the dollar could appreciate against riskier currencies such as the Mexican peso (MXN) and the Canadian dollar (CAD). However, traders should monitor China's reactions, as an escalation could lead to a more significant dollar rally. 2. Impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) and Canadian Dollar (CAD) The tariff freeze on Mexico and Canada will likely have a positive impact on both currencies. These countries will benefit from reduced costs on goods exported to the United States, which could stimulate economic growth and improve the trade balance. However, the situation remains delicate. If China continues with new tariffs, Mexico and Canada could be indirectly affected, as overall global uncertainty could reduce trade and slow down growth. Nevertheless, both countries could continue to see appreciation in their currencies against emerging market or riskier currencies. Forex Trading Strategy: If the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar appreciate, traders might consider going long on these currencies against others like the Brazilian real (BRL) or South African rand (ZAR), which tend to be more volatile and vulnerable to global crises. 3. Impact on the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and Emerging Market Currencies The escalation of the trade war between the U.S. and China will have a direct impact on the Chinese yuan. If more counter-tariffs are imposed, the yuan could weaken further, particularly against the dollar. This weakening could also increase volatility in emerging market currencies as capital might seek safety in assets like the dollar or Japanese yen. Another potential effect will be the increase in commodity demand, particularly for metals and energy, which could benefit currencies linked to the export of raw materials, such as the Australian dollar (AUD) and the New Zealand dollar (NZD). Forex Trading Strategy: Traders expecting a weakening of the yuan could consider short positions on the CNY against the dollar or other major currencies. Additionally, monitoring commodity price trends will be crucial, as they could provide leading indicators for currencies tied to their export. Conclusion: A New Chapter in the Tariff War with Forex Impacts In summary, the tariff war between the United States, Mexico, Canada, and China is entering a new phase that will have long-lasting effects on financial markets, especially on Forex. Currency fluctuations will be influenced by a combination of trade policies, geopolitical uncertainties, and global economic dynamics. Investors and traders need to prepare for a period of high volatility, closely monitoring the moves of key players and their repercussions on the currency markets. In this environment, adopting a flexible and diversified strategy is crucial, ready to adapt to rapid and unpredictable developments. Forex, as always, offers great opportunities but also significant risks. The key will be to read between the lines of global economic policies and act with timing.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
EDUCATION: Using RENKO Charts to Trade Crypto Like a ProRenko charts strip away the noise of traditional candlestick charts, making them a powerful tool for trading crypto. Instead of plotting price movements based on time, Renko charts focus purely on price changes, filtering out the wicks and erratic movements that make crypto trading so volatile. Why Use Renko for Crypto? Crypto markets never sleep, and their constant fluctuations can overwhelm traders. Renko simplifies this by helping you: Spot Trends Clearly – No distractions from minor price fluctuations. Reduce Market Noise – Filters out insignificant moves and focuses on real momentum. Identify Support & Resistance – Renko blocks highlight strong price levels better than traditional charts. How to Set Up Renko for Crypto Trading Choose an ATR-Based Brick Size – A 14 or 13-period ATR setting adapts to market volatility. Identify Key Levels – Look for trend reversals, double tops/bottoms, and support/resistance zones. Use Confirmation Indicators – Pair Renko with moving averages or RSI to confirm trades. Renko is a game-changer for crypto traders who want cleaner, more actionable charts. Have you tried trading crypto with Renko? Drop a comment and share your experience! 🚀 #CryptoTrading #RenkoCharts #Bitcoin
CRYPTO:SOLUSDEducation
by TLTurnerTV
Business CycleAll the credits to Ostium labs insights. Found here Intuition behind different indicators NFCI - NATIONAL FINANCIAL CONDITIONS INDEX Note y axis is inverted. Rising NFCI here suggests loosening of financial conditions. Btc outperform in loose conditions. DRTSCILM - NET % OF BANKS TIGHTENING LENDING STANDARDS Note y axis is inverted. This tracks changes in the willingness of banks to lend, where tightening lending standards is indicative of caution, whereas looser lending standards suggest economic confidence. Here the graph is inverted - a rise shows improving willingness to lend and a fall shows tighter lending standards. HYG Real time proxy for demand of junk bonds which is a good proxy for risk appetite in the market. Demand for junk bonds is correlated with the rest of the risk curve, with Bitcoin tending to outperform during periods of strength for HYG, and vice-versa. BAMLH0A0HYM2 - HY ICE CREDIT SPREADS Note y axis is inverted. This measures the premium demanded by investors over government bonds. As one would imagine, wider credit spreads mean that more yield is being demanded to invest in junk bonds vs safe bonds, which itself is suggestive of risk in the economy. Narrow spreads, meanwhile, are indicative of confidence. The graph is inverted such that the peaks are the tightest spread. If credit spreads are narrow, risk appetite is high, which means assets further out the risk curve benefit. This is also suggestive of expansion vs contraction in the business cycle, where widening spreads would be suggestive of downturn and narrowing spreads of continued growth. USMNO/USNMNO - US MANUFACTURING ORDERS / NON-MANUFACTURING ORDERS Manufacturing New Orders growing faster than Non-Manufacturing New Orders is generally indicative of early recovery in a business cycle, whereas late cycle dynamics are more heavily weighted towards services, largely driven by consumer spending and therefore this ratio would begin to contract, as Non-Manufacturing New Orders dominate. USBC0I - US PMI A composite of the Manufacturing and Services sectors in the US economy. Above 50 = expansion and below 50 = contraction. T10YIE - 10-YEAR INFLATION BREAKEVENS A market-based measure of average expected inflation over the next 10 years. Bitcoin likes it very much when the average expected inflation rate has bottomed and is trending higher and it generally underperforms when 10-year inflation breakevens are declining. Bitcoin also tends to front-run peaks in 10-year inflation breakevens by about 6-9 months, which in turn tend to peak after Global M2 YoY growth has peaked and is turning lower. This measure also is useful for understanding what is likely to happen to financial conditions - tighter after peaks and looser after bottoms. The clearest correlation here is not to the downside but the upside: when breakevens have bottomed out and cycle higher, Bitcoin tends to do very well indeed. DFII10 - 10-YEAR REAL YIELD Note y axis is inverted What is interesting here is that whilst there is not a strong correlation as real yields rise, there is a clearer correlation as real yields fall. Falling real yields tend to be supportive of Bitcoin, whilst rising real yields have occurred whilst BTC has outperformed and underperformed historically. This one is not as key for mapping out the market cycle, but still worth keeping an eye on.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Oxfirefist
Principle of predictionThe Principle of Prediction – How We Are Prediction Machines "Every action we take is based on a prediction—whether we realize it or not. Mastery comes from refining those predictions through data and analysis." 🔍 Understanding the Principle of Prediction - The human brain is wired for prediction. Every decision we make—whether in trading, business, or life—is an attempt to anticipate an outcome. - Prediction is about stability. Our ability to predict future events determines how well we adapt to uncertainty, manage risk, and maintain control. - The role of data and analysis: While intuition plays a role, true mastery comes from combining biological instinct with structured data-driven refinement. 📊 The Chart & Its Meaning - The chart illustrates how patterns emerge over time, reinforcing the idea that recognizing, testing, and refining these patterns enhances predictive accuracy. - Human Perception vs. Statistical Reality: - Our intuition is often biased—we see what we expect to see. - Data analysis acts as a corrective lens , aligning perception with objective reality. - Performance Optimization: - Stability in decision-making is achieved when human prediction aligns with statistical probability. - Tracking and refining pattern recognition improves predictive power over time. 🧠 Key Takeaways ✅ Prediction is survival. The better we predict, the more control we exert over uncertainty. ✅ Data refines intuition. Without measurement, prediction is just an educated guess. ✅ Mastering prediction = mastering stability. Stability isn’t found in avoiding risk, but in learning to predict and manage it effectively. 💡 The First of The Seven Principles This establishes The Principle of Prediction as the foundation of stability. - In future annotations, we can progressively introduce the next principles in a way that naturally builds on this concept. - Each principle will connect back to scientific reasoning, human needs, and performance optimization.
TVC:DXYEducation
by SERVER_SEVEN
Head & Shoulders reversal pattern: AAPL chartBeautiful symmetric reversal Head & Shoulders pattern is in the making. We have three peaks with the highest in between called Head. Left and right peaks are "shoulders". The line between valleys of the Head is called Neckline. This pattern reverses the price course at the climax. Trading technique: Sell entry is triggered on the breakdown of the Neckline Stop loss is at the invalidation point - breakup of the Right Shoulder (red dashed line) Take profit is set at the height of the Head subtracted below Neckline (blue dashed line)
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by aibek
Liquidity CycleAll credits to Ostium insights which can be found here Intuition behind different indicators. DXY and USDCNH NOTE: The DXY and USDCNH are on an inverted scale They are a proxy for the US dollar strength. BTC suffers as dollar strengthens and vice versa. Global Liquidity Index Rising global liquidity and strength in bitcoin are highly correlated. If we expect global balance sheet expansion, we should anticipate outperformance in BTC. GLOBAL M2 / GLOBAL GDP It is the rate of growth of global money supply outpacing the rate of growth in goods and services produced globally, where periods of of growth in this ratio correlate highly with outperformance in Bitcoin and periods of decline in this ratio are generally unsupportive of Bitcoin. M2SL/DXY At its core, this is a measure of the growth rate of domestic Dollars vs. the strength of the Dollar internationally. As M2SL/DXY rises (US M2 is growing faster than the Dollar is strengthening vs. other currencies), this is a proxy for growing liquidity in the financial system - in effect, a good barometer for the relative easiness or tightness of financial conditions. This is also indicative of weakening purchasing power of the Dollar itself via currency debasement. Lastly, a rising M2SL/DXY can indicate that international borrowers can access dollar liquidity more favourably. This all, in turn, leads to a growing risk appetite and capital flow into financial assets, as we can see from the ratio mapped vs BTC/USD. As the ratio declines, the inverse is true - liquidity is tighter and financial conditions are less easy, often leading to a flight away from riskier assets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Oxfirefist
What's Flowing: Trump’s Tariffs – Institutional InsightOn this episode of “What’s Flowing”, I dive into a document shared with me by an institutional trader analyzing the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the markets. With global trade in focus, we’ll explore how these policies are affecting currencies, commodities, and equities, and what institutional traders are watching closely. Are tariffs a strategic move for economic leverage, or are they setting the stage for market volatility? I’ll break down what I can from the report, reading between the lines to extract key takeaways for traders and investors. Stay tuned as we analyze the potential winners and losers in this shifting economic landscape, and what it all means for your portfolio.
Education
by moneymagnateash
FOMO Traps: How Market Makers Capitalize on Panic SellingHello and greetings to all the crypto enthusiasts, ✌ Reading this educational material will require approximately 3 minutes of your time. For your convenience, I have summarized the key points in 3 concise lines at the end . I trust this information will prove to be insightful and valuable in enhancing your understanding of Bitcoin and its role in the global financial landscape. The influence of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) on market prices is particularly pronounced across global financial markets, and the cryptocurrency market is certainly not immune to its effects. Imagine that today, many of you log into your profiles, expecting a minor 5% dip, only to be taken aback by a much sharper decline. Instead of the anticipated 5%, you find your portfolio down by 10%, or in some cases, even 30%. In this situation, how do you respond? This is where the market’s true dynamics come into play. Rather than holding steady, many of you might impulsively decide to liquidate your positions in a panic, believing that this is the best way to minimize further losses. However, as you make these decisions, the market maker — who operates from an elevated position, almost like a mastermind pulling the strings in an anime like *Solo Leveling* — watches this reaction with amusement. Their grin widens as they anticipate your next move. This is the essence of FOMO at work. As fear sets in, some of you may be tempted to take short positions, convinced that the market will continue to fall and that you can secure profits in the downturn. However, the market maker has likely anticipated this and is preparing for the next step: hunting your stop-loss orders. Always keep in mind that in the world of cryptocurrency, the true market manipulators operate like skilled hunters, waiting to capitalize on your fear and mistakes. To avoid falling into these emotional traps , it’s essential to take a step back and reassess your strategy. Acting purely on emotion can cloud your judgment, leading to decisions that could harm your long-term investment goals. It’s crucial to treat your assets with the respect they deserve, especially given the time, effort, and sacrifice it took to accumulate them. Establish clear and reasonable stop-loss and profit-taking levels before making any decisions, and stick to them. While I personally lean towards a bearish outlook on the market in the immediate term, it’s important to recognize that market makers typically aim for a few more rallies — perhaps even pushing for one or two additional all-time highs — before the broader crypto winter settles in. These cycles are common in volatile markets, and it’s vital to be prepared for both upward surges and inevitable corrections. However , this analysis should be seen as a personal viewpoint, not as financial advice, and it’s important to be aware of the high risks that come with investing in crypto market and that being said, please take note of the disclaimer section at the bottom of each post provided by the 🧨 Our team's main opinion is: 🧨 FOMO plays a huge role in market moves, especially in crypto. Many of you might expect a small drop, but instead, face a sharp decline, leading to panic selling. This plays right into the hands of market makers, who capitalize on your fear, sometimes even hunting your stop-losses. To avoid falling into this trap, stay calm, stick to your plan, set clear profit and loss levels, and avoid emotional decisions. While the market may dip, I believe there could still be a few more highs before the crypto winter hits. Give me some energy !! ✨We invest countless hours researching opportunities and crafting valuable ideas. Your support means the world to us! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comment box. Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
Education
by MadWhale
13
Trump Coin’s Wild Ride: Prepare for Major Losses Hello and greetings to all the crypto enthusiasts, ✌ Reading this educational material will require approximately 3 minutes of your time. For your convenience, I have summarized the key points in 3 concise lines at the end . I trust this information will prove to be insightful and valuable in enhancing your understanding of OFFICIAL TRUMP and its role in the global financial landscape. Personal Insight & Technical Analysis of Trump Coin (TRUMP) Cryptocurrency markets, especially meme coins, are notoriously volatile, with unpredictable price swings that can make or break investors. These coins are highly speculative and often driven more by public sentiment, social media trends, and the influence of notable figures than by traditional financial analysis. This emotional and speculative environment can cause investors to chase quick gains, only to fall victim to FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and impulsive decisions, leading to significant losses. In meme coin markets, rapid price increases can be exciting, but they are often followed by sharp corrections. These sudden price surges are typically unsustainable, and once the speculative excitement fades, the market corrects itself, leaving late investors with substantial losses. As prices fall, many panicked traders sell their positions, further driving down prices, while more experienced market players, or "whales," step in to take advantage of the opportunity. However , not all hope is lost. In some cases, after a significant drop, a meme coin may see a recovery, especially if it has influential backers like Donald Trump or Elon Musk. These figures have proven to have a significant impact on market sentiment, and their endorsement can bring renewed interest and media attention, potentially driving a bullish trend. Nevertheless , this analysis is based on personal opinion and should not be construed as financial advice. It’s crucial to understand the risks involved in investing in meme coins. How to Buy Trump Coin (TRUMP) To purchase Trump Coin, first, choose a cryptocurrency exchange that supports it. Look for a platform with solid security measures such as two-factor authentication and data encryption. Additionally, consider transaction fees, as they can eat into your profits. A user-friendly interface and positive reviews are also important when selecting an exchange. The Trump Coin (TRUMP) Phenomenon Trump Coin (TRUMP) is one of the most talked-about meme coins to emerge recently, launched by former U.S. President Donald Trump. Known for his polarizing presence, Trump’s venture into the world of digital assets drew widespread attention from both his supporters and critics. Officially named OFFICIAL TRUMP, this coin was introduced to celebrate Trump’s political comeback, following his electoral win. When the announcement was made, some initially thought Trump’s social media had been hacked, but it quickly became clear that the former president was behind the creation of his own cryptocurrency. The response to Trump Coin was immediate and intense, with its value skyrocketing by over 300% within hours, and its market cap surpassing $6 million. This spike highlights the power of media influence and public sentiment in meme coin success, especially when linked to a high-profile figure. Trump Coin symbolizes resilience and defiance, reflecting Trump’s refusal to back down, even in the face of adversity. The coin draws inspiration from a 2024 incident when Trump, after being shot at, famously shouted "FIGHT," embodying the spirit of strength and perseverance. The Mechanics of Trump Coin (TRUMP) Trump Coin operates on the Solana blockchain, known for its speed and low fees. Although it’s associated with a political figure, it has no formal ties to any government institutions or campaigns and is solely created for speculative and entertainment purposes. The total supply of Trump Coin is capped at 1 billion TRUMP tokens, to be released over the next three years. The distribution is as follows: - 36% for Group 1 (Creators) - 18% for Group 2 (Creators) - 18% for Group 3 (Creators) - 10% for liquidity - 10% for public sale - 2% for Group 4 (Creators) - 2% for Group 5 (Creators) 🧨 Our team's main opinion is: 🧨 Trump Coin (TRUMP) is a highly speculative meme coin created by former President Donald Trump, capitalizing on his polarizing influence. Its value surged over 300% upon launch, driven by media attention and public sentiment, but it’s prone to volatile price swings. While there’s potential for a recovery post-correction, investing in meme coins remains high-risk. The coin operates on the Solana blockchain, with a structured distribution plan favoring Trump’s team, but it’s not officially tied to any political campaigns. Give me some energy !! ✨We invest countless hours researching opportunities and crafting valuable ideas. Your support means the world to us! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comment box. Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
Education
by MadWhale
1
Double Bottom Pattern: Bitcoin Total Domination Last week my post on Bitcoin dominance played out faster than it was expected. (see related) This indicator broke out into 60-70% area. So, I switched to a weekly time frame and spotted a classic reversal pattern called "Double Bottom" in the making for you. Let's break it down. We have two bottoms highlighted with yellow arcs in the same area. Indicator eyes the middle top between bottoms, it is called "Neckline" Now, let's breakdown buying technique: 1) buy entry is at the breakout above Neckline (green dashed line) 2) stop loss is at the valley of the right bottom (red dashed line) 3) target is located at the depth of the right bottom from the Neckline. in our case it can't be higher than 100% and is set at the maximum (blue dashed line) Its amazing that technical analysis could predict things that out of our scope as yet.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.DEducation
by aibek
3