BTCUSD: Last 1W MA50 rebound to the top of the CycleBitcoin remains bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 40.004, MACD = -3484.800, ADX = 36.461) but today we see the first recovery attempt. The technical reasoning behind it is that the market is testing its 1W MA50 and in due time it will price the new HL of the Bull Cycle and form the bottom that will hold for the rest of the year until the cycle's very top. This is no different than the last two Cycles, the 1W RSI is even rebounding on its S1 level. Based on that pattern we are looking at a potential Cycle peak between 150k - 200k.
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Bitcointrading
Crypto summit disappoints, Bitcoin teeters on support Bitcoin surged on March 3 after Donald Trump announced a strategic crypto reserve, only to erase gains following erratic tariff announcements the following days.
Friday’s White House crypto summit, expected to be a turning point, fell flat. Trump met with top crypto executives, promising to ease Biden-era regulations, but offered only vague commitments. Instead of rallying, the market has declined further.
A silver lining for Bitcoin came with Friday’s weak jobs report, increasing the likelihood of Federal Reserve intervention. Historically, Bitcoin benefits when interest rates fall. Although this is yet to be reflected in the price.
Technically, BTC/USD is testing the first support on the pitchfork indicator, with the money flow index suggesting no buying pressure at the moment. A drop below Monday’s low of $81,620 could invalidate any bullish outlook.
march rally coming for bitcoin BTCUSD BTC!Bitcoin's price action is also influenced by broader financial cycles and patterns that are more subtle.
Here's a look at those:
General Financial Cycles:
Market Sentiment Cycles:
Like all financial markets, Bitcoin experiences cycles of fear and greed. These psychological waves drive price fluctuations, with periods of euphoria leading to overbought conditions and subsequent corrections.
These cycles are often amplified in the cryptocurrency market due to its 24/7 nature and the prevalence of social media.
Economic Cycles:
Bitcoin's performance can be influenced by macroeconomic trends, such as inflation, interest rates, and global economic growth.
In times of economic uncertainty, some investors may turn to Bitcoin as a hedge against traditional assets. Conversely, during periods of strong economic growth, capital may flow into more traditional investments.
Adoption Cycles:
Bitcoin's adoption by individuals and institutions follows a pattern of gradual growth, punctuated by periods of rapid acceleration.
As adoption increases, liquidity improves, and the market becomes more mature, which can influence price volatility and long-term trends.
"Secret" or Less Obvious Bitcoin Cycles:
On-Chain Data Cycles:
Analysis of Bitcoin's blockchain data reveals patterns in investor behavior, such as accumulation and distribution phases.
Metrics like:
Hodl waves: which track the age of bitcoin held in wallets.
Entity adjusted dormancy: which shows when older coins are being moved.
These can give indications of underlying cycle activity.
Liquidity Cycles:
The flow of liquidity into and out of the Bitcoin market can create its own cycles.
Periods of high liquidity can fuel price increases, while periods of low liquidity can exacerbate price declines.
The availability of stablecoins, and the actions of large market makers, effect these cycles.
Technological Adoption Cycles:
The development and adoption of layer 2 solutions, and other technological improvements to the bitcoin network, can create their own cyclical impacts on the bitcoin price.
These cycles are less predictable, but can have profound long term effects.
It's important to understand that these cycles are interconnected and can overlap, making it challenging to isolate their individual effects. Additionally, the cryptocurrency market is still relatively young, and its cycles may evolve over time.
BTC Bullish Continuation (Another Top OR New Prominent High?)BTC price seems to exhibit signs of overall bullish continuation as the price action may form a credible Higher Low on key Fibonacci and Support levels.
There might be a possibility that BTC may break it's All Time High Price of 109588. It might be worth observing price the action further if 109588 breaks. A potential break may be indicative of another top OR new prominent high (if the range considerably breaks).
Trade Plan :
Entry @ 97389.73
Stop Loss @ 87000
TP 1 @ 107779.46 (Before All Time High)
TP 1.5 - 2 @ 112975 - 118169.19 (After All Time High)
Ride Further with Caution if TP1 hits and move Stop Loss to Break Even if TP1 hits as well.
BTCUSD: Bottom formed. Road to $150k started.Bitcoin has turned neutral on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 50.811, MACD = -265.000, ADX = 36.155) as it recovered some losses from last week. The most important outcome is that both last week and so far the current one, the 1W candle entered the long term Support Zone comprised of the 1W MA25/MA50 and rebounded over it. This is the Zone that has produced all HL bottoms of the 2 year Channel Up. As the 1W RSI is also about to enter its multiyear Buy Zone, we expect the bottom to be formed within 4-6 weeks max and then start the standard +97.97% rally it printed on all three prior bullish waves. The trade is long, TP = 150,000.
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BTCUSD: Historic comparison shows hyper rally about to begin.Bitcoin turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 55.581, MACD = 979.600, ADX = 19.348) as it recovered last week's selloff and rebounded on its 1D MA200. Technically the pattern since 2024 is identical to 2020 as you can see on the chart above. The moment Bitcoin crossed again above its 1D MA50, a new hyper rally started. This suggests that a final target inside the 160,000 - 200,000 Zone is quite possible to take place.
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Bitcoin Halving to ATH data -2 year UPDATE-conflicting results
I havw Noticed in recent days, people "Boosting" A chart I posted in Dec 2022, called "BITCOIN Halving cycles and Pump %"
So I thought I would update it and see where we are now.
In it, i said 2024 would be a Good year.
Well, we got that in many ways and not surprisingly but we have seen some things that point towards this being a VERY different cycle and I will explain some of them here
So, as the title suggests, Lets Look at the Halving to ATH - For a start, I need to explain the issue we have with 2021 - 2 major ATH and a divided community about which one was the REAL ATH and so on. There are plenty of reasons to accept the NOV 2021 ATH as the real one, mostly because it was the highest price !
It was also a similar day count from previous Halving to ATH and so I am working with that.
The Current Bitcoin ATH was 280 days after Halving. A Lot Less than any previous day count from Halving to ATH..
We are however, still under the 365 count we had in 2012 Halving to ATH - So...for me, the possibility that we have NOT seen Cycle ATH still exists for many reasons..
And yet, at the same time, I am Very aware that this Cycle has seen accelerated adoption because of ETF's etc,,,,,,so, please Keep an open mind.
Using the day Count system and the Nov 2021 day count, we could expect this Cycle ATH around Oct 2025 - probably safer to say Q4
But how High ?
The % rise from ATH to ATH is an interesting topic here.
2012 to 2017 ATH saw a 1144.6% Rise in PA
2017 to 2021 ATH ( Nov ) saw a 326,3% rise in PA - This is 3.5 X SMALLER than the previous Rise.
Using that 3.5 Smaller calculation, that gives us an % rise of 92.4% and an ATH of around 121K for this cycle. Kind of contradicts expectations and this alone could point towards that fact we may have already be near reacheing cycle Top !
(I have posted a Far more detailed chart about this and will be updating it soon)
BUT, the Crunch comes when we look at the Halving to ATH, as mentioned in the title
I wrote in Dec 2022
2012 Halving 10K% rise after
2016 Halving 3,5K% rise after
2020 Halving 700 % rise after
Projected PA in 2024 /5 would also be 700%
BUT, Bitcoin is far more public now and the Halving Pumps will be talked about aLot. Could the Next halving actually be pumped a Lot earlier than previous dates
We got earlier Pumps due to ETF expectations, as can be seen by how far of the Curve PA rose in 2024 - This has completely changed how strong PA was at Halving and how Much further it could rise.
In facr, if you look back over previous Halvings, PA has been FLAT by comparison.
And so, Since the Bitcoin Halving in March 2024, to the current ATH, we have only seen a 62.8% Rise
If PA Had been on the Curve in the chart at the halving date, we would have seen a 397.8% eise to the current ATH
This Highlights a Massive change in how PA is rising But, at the same time, We would still most likely be in the Range we are now in.
And Lastly, I want to show you this
I mentioned in Dec 2022 how Bitcoin PA could expect a 700% Rise in Price from Halving to cycle ATH
I was WRONG
From Where PA was at Halving to the Expected ATH mark on Rising trend line, it will be 651% rise and around 500K
So, in conclusion, despite a massive change in how PA approached Halving and how Shallow the rise in PA has been compared to previous cycles after Halving, we are Still in a VERY Good place.
However, if you Look at just the ATH to ATH dats calculation, we may already he near TOP....
Take you pick - For Me, I am holding out for Q4 but I have safe guards in place should it turn out we have peaked early.
But do remember, this is a Projection..No guarantees......But we can hope
Stay safe and Love your Neighbour
BITCOIN UPDATE TODAYHere's the latest update on Bitcoin:
Current Price
The current price of Bitcoin is around $83,780.61, with a daily high of $93,721.37 and a daily low of $82,464.84 .
Market Trends
Bitcoin's price surged 10% after President Trump's Crypto Strategic Reserve announcement, with some analysts predicting a potential breakout past $100,000 ². However, others warn that the rally may be temporary due to regulatory hurdles.
Key Levels
- Resistance: $90,000 - $100,000
- Support: $80,000 - $83,000
News
President Trump's executive order established a Crypto Strategic Reserve, which will initially include Bitcoin (BTC), Solana (SOL), Ripple (XRP), and Cardano (ADA) . This move is seen as a positive development for the cryptocurrency market.
THE ROAD TO 68K BTC.P/USDT 4 HOUR In this idea I expand upon my previous idea posted in December on the 8th. The previous idea showed the rudimentary course we would take according to the formation set of Ascending scallops.
In this chart I outline the key supports, resistance, and the projected bottom point we will bounce from to head back up.
Seems we have fallen from a large scale rising wedge and are now inside of descending broadening wedge. This is all in line with my previous idea and is moving as expected. We do not have long to go before we reach our bottom target if we do in fact move as projected.
Only time will tell, Happy Hunting - TND
CHECK BTCUSD ANALYSIS SIGNAL UPDATE > GO AND READ THE CAPTAINBaddy dears friends 👋🏼
(BTCUSD) trading signals technical analysis satup👇🏼
I think now (BTCUSD) ready for( SEEL )trade ( BTCUSD) SEEL zone
( TRADE SATUP) 👇🏼
ENTRY POINT (79400) to (79600) 📊
FIRST TP (78700)📊
2ND TARGET (78000)📊
LAST TARGET (76900) 📊
STOP LOOS (80800)❌
Tachincal analysis satup
Fallow risk management
BITCOIN ($BTC) DIPS TO $82K—FEAR OR FORTUNE?BITCOIN ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) DIPS TO GETTEX:82K —FEAR OR FORTUNE?
(1/9)
Good Morning, TradingView! Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) slumped to $ 82,000, lowest since Nov ‘24 💰 Market’s glum, let’s unpack this crypto dip! 🌐
(2/9) – PRICE SLIDE
• Drop: $ 82K, 20% off $ 109K high 📊
• Month: Altcoins down 30%+ 💧
• Fear Index: 10/100, rock bottom 😟
CRYPTOCAP:BTC ’s shivering, gloom’s thick!
(3/9) – TECH TELL
• 200-Day MA: $ 81,500, support holds 🌟
• RSI: 28, oversold, bounce hint 🚀
• Past: Aug ‘24 $ 49K to $ 100K 📈
CRYPTOCAP:BTC ’s teetering, rebound or rubble?
(4/9) – MARKET MOOD
• Fear: Lowest since FTX ‘22, $ 16K 🌍
• History: Extreme fear sparks rallies 🌞
• Outflows: $ 1B from ETFs, trade woes 💼
CRYPTOCAP:BTC ’s testing, panic or patience?
(5/9) – RISKS IN PLAY
• Trump: Tariff talk, no crypto juice ⚠️
• Volatility: Bear turn stings 🐻
• Stablecoins: Inflows, sideline cash 🔒
CRYPTOCAP:BTC ’s wobbly, can it dodge the funk?
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• Base: $ 82K holds, tough nut 💪
• Past: Fear flips to gold, $ 100K+ 🏋️
• Liquidity: Central banks ease 🌿
CRYPTOCAP:BTC ’s gritty, battle-tested!
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: Sentiment sinks 😕
• Opportunities: Fear buys, rate cuts 🌏
Can CRYPTOCAP:BTC vault past the blues?
(8/9) – CRYPTOCAP:BTC ’s $ 82K dip, what’s your take?
1️⃣ Bullish, $ 100K rebound soon 😎
2️⃣ Neutral, Holds, risks linger 🤷
3️⃣ Bearish, $ 70K slide looms 😞
Vote below! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
CRYPTOCAP:BTC ’s $ 82K slump spooks, fear at 10 🪙 $ 1B ETF outflows sting, but history hints bounce, gem or gloom?
To Thine Own Shoe be True - $BTC's Other Foot is About to FallBitcoin’s Floor Must Be Lower – Chart Physics and Market Psychology at Work
In this video, I explain why Bitcoin has no choice but to find a lower floor, despite many traders believing the worst is behind us. While price is briefly going to appear to confirm support, this is just part of the process before it comes back down and breaks through it on the third test. The real focus here isn’t whether this level holds for another day or two—it’s about why Bitcoin must go lower before it can establish true support.
For a long time, Bitcoin has been floating over clear air with no real structural support. When price climbs too high without building a strong foundation, it eventually has to fall back down to fill the gaps. Right now, the market is in denial, desperately trying to hold Bitcoin in the $90,000 range, but this isn’t about what traders want—it’s about chart physics and liquidity. When there’s nothing left to hold the price up, it must seek a lower equilibrium.
Psychologically, traders don’t want to accept that Bitcoin might have to revisit $70,000 or lower to reset before moving higher. But markets don’t move based on hope—they move based on supply, demand, and liquidity positioning. Right now, there are no meaningful buyers willing to absorb the sell pressure at this level, which means Bitcoin has nowhere to go but down. Once it finally breaks through, it will likely move quickly, as there’s no real support structure beneath it.
Know thy shoe.
The shoe will find the ground.
(My sincerest apologies about the volume ladies and gentlemen. The problem which I thought I had corrected from a prior video still exists in this video. It is an issue I'm hoping Trading View can correct before too long on their end… The problem originated on my end, but there was nothing I can do after it was recorded, and I had to get this video up there - I believe it contains important time sensitive information…
Please try listening with the volume turned all the way up or perhaps with headphones until the problem can be corrected.
My system issue has been corrected for the future, but Trading View if you can, please tweak this on your end and amplify it. This video is extremely worthwhile..)
BTCUSD: These are historically the best conditions to buy.Bitcoin has turned oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 27.940, MACD = -1745.600, ADX = 37.260) and neutral on its 1W (RSI = 50.407). These are historically the best conditions to buy. Neutral long term, oversold short term. Last time the 1D RSI was oversold was on the August 5th 2024 low, which was the bottom of Bitcoin's prior consolidation phase. At the time, the market was again inside a Channel Down, and the rebound after the August bottom, immediately targeted the 0.786 Fibonacci. Consequently, our first target is the 0.786 Fib at the top of the Channel Down (TP = 102,000) and after it breaks, we expect a rally similar to October-December 2024.
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BTCUSD: Is it possible to reach 160k by May?Bitcoin remains neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 50.148, MACD = -503.300, ADX = 40.137), consolidating under the 1D MA50. This neutral state indicates that it is still a buy opportunity, as long as it stays under the 1D MA50. The similar consolidations (Rectangle patterns) of January 2024 and March 2023 indicate that when the 1D MA50 is reclaimed, Bitcoin gives a bullish breakout signal that targets the 4.0 Fibonacci extension. As you notice, thos phase since November 2022 are cyclical and replicate the price action over and over again. Go long, TP = 160,000 potentiall by end of April beginning of May.
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BITCOIN: Bull Flag. Will it break upwards?Bitcoin has just turned bullish on its 4H technical outlook (RSI = 56.545, MACD = -0.190, ADX = 38.441) but remains neutral on 1D. The reason is that the price is now at the top of the 2 week Channel Down, having crossed and closed over the 4H MA100 for the first time since January 31st. On the larger timeframes this Channel Down could be a Bull Flag to continue the bullish trend but of course the price needs to cross over it, otherwise a technical rejection will prevail. If it breaks upwards, go long targeting the 4H MA200 (TP = 99,500). Until it does, keep a tight SL short targeting the top of the S1 Zone (TP = 95,750).
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BTCUSD: The magic of the .618 Fib signals $165k.Bitcoin is about to turn neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.436, MACD = -739.700, ADX = 52.589) in an attempt to form a new bottom for February on its 2 month consolidation phase. This consolidation phase is technically no different than all others since the 2023 Bull Cycle started. We have had three such consolidation phases, two longer, one shorter but all started after market tops on a +1.0 Fibonacci progression: 1st on the 1.618 Fib, then on the 2.618, the 3.618, which brings us to the current ATH on the 4.618 Fibonacci extension. Technically the next one should be on the 5.618 Fib (TP = 165,000) then only thing that's open is whether it will follow the 2023 longer consolidation or 2024 shorter. If it follows the longer, then the 165k target may coincide with the Cycle Top towards September.
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BTCUSD: Crossing of 4H MA100 brings enormous rally.Bitcoin has turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 50.096, MACD = -559.600, ADX = 41.025) as it is rising aggressively today and just hit the 1D MA50. This is its major Resistance level, which when crossed has caused the two main rallies of 2025 so far. The first (Dec 30th-Jan 7th) crossed the 0.618 Fibonacci before pulling back, while the second (Jan 9th-Jan 20th) made a full +20% rally. As you realize, if we do get a 1D candle close over the 1D MA50, the target for the modest scenario of Fib 0.618 is TP1 = 103,500 and if it continues (which as some point it will since the Bull Cycle has at least another 6-9 months more) for the good case scenario of +20%, the target will be TP2 = 113,000.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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BTCUSDT Trade LogBTCUSDT – Bullish Breakout in Sight! 🚀
Market Vibes: With US equities and XAU (Gold) on the rise, BTC sentiment is looking strong too! Price action is channeling, but these dips show buyers stepping in. That’s a big confidence booster for me to ride this wave up. 🔥
Long Setup:
• Entry: Look to buy on any minor pullback or a break above the current 1H Kijun zone.
• Stop Loss: Place just below the channel support (risk 1% of account).
• Target: Eye a 1:2 or 1:3 RRR toward the next supply zone.
Confidence Boosters:
• Equities rallying? Check! ✅
• Gold pumping? Check! ✅
• BTC channel support holding strong? Check! ✅
Let’s see if this bullish momentum can keep pushing us higher! Keep an eye out for volatility around any macro news—stay safe and trade well. 🤞🔥
BTCUSD: 4H Bull Flag targeting 103,000Bitcoin is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 44.119, MACD = -816.800, ADX = 35.629) as it may have reached the 4H MA50 today but remains ranged inside a Channel Down since February 4th. According to the 4H RSI, this is technically a Bull Flag pattern like the one on Dec 26th-30th that was also formed during a 4H Death Cross. The Bull Flag bottomed and rebounded to the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. We can be bullish (TP = 103,000) at least on the short term.
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