Bitcoin may drop to support line before reboundingHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Bitcoin. We can observe how the price entered a range when analyzing the chart. It initially dropped to the support level, aligning with the buyer zone at the lower boundary of the range. After spending some time trading near this level, the price dipped further into the buyer zone but quickly rebounded, rising to the upper boundary of the range. Following this, the price reversed and fell back into the buyer zone, where it consolidated for a while before climbing back into the range. Shortly afterward, Bitcoin rallied to the resistance level, corresponding to the seller zone, breaking out of the range and eventually surpassing the 104600 level to reach a new all-time high (109000 points). However, BTC then began to decline within a downward channel, where it broke below the 104600 level again and dropped to the channel’s support line. Although the price attempted to recover, it failed and rebounded from the seller zone back to the buyer zone. Subsequently, the price moved back into the channel, creating a false breakout, and continued its downward movement within the channel. Given the current structure, I anticipate that BTC might drop to the channel's support line before initiating a new upward movement. Based on this outlook, I’ve set my target price (TP) at 101300 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
BTCUSDT
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Analysis – Divergence and Bearish Setuphello guys!
Divergence Between Price and RSI:
The chart shows a clear bearish divergence between price action and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
Price made higher highs, while the RSI formed lower highs, signaling weakening bullish momentum and the potential for a reversal.
Price Action Analysis:
The price reached the QML2 zone (~$103,000), and there is a clear rejection, suggesting selling pressure.
The price is now heading toward QML1, located at around $95,600.
If the price breaks QML1 and holds below, the next support target is around $93,455, where further downside could be expected.
Support and Target Zones:
Support Area 1: QML1 (~$95,600) – key level to monitor for possible breakdown.
Support Area 2: QML2 (~$93,455) – potential next stop if QML1 breaks.
Resistance Zone: Around $103,000 – the price has been rejected from here, acting as a strong resistance level.
RSI Analysis:
The RSI is showing signs of bearish divergence, which often precedes a price correction or reversal.
RSI Below 50: If the RSI drops below the 50 mark, it could indicate increasing bearish momentum.
Trade Setup:
Bearish Setup:
Entry: Short position below $95,600 (if price breaks QML1 and retests it as resistance).
Take Profit: First target at $93,455, then possibly lower towards $91,000.
Conclusion:
Bearish Bias: The combination of price rejection at the upper resistance level and RSI divergence points to a potential price decline.
Key Levels to Watch: The immediate breakdown below $95,600 and subsequent test of $93,455 will be critical for further downside.
Bitcoin’s Fake Breakouts—Bears Taking Control!?Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) failed to defeat Resistance zone($100,520-$97,200) , the 50_SMA(Daily) , and the Monthly Pivot Point for the umpteenth time and even created a Fake Break .
It also seems that Bitcoin has been unable to break the Resistance lines .
According to the theory of Elliott waves , it seems that Bitcoin has succeeded in completing the corrective wave so that the structure of the main wave C is the Expanding Ending Diagonal .
I expect Bitcoin to break the Support zone($96,520-$95,720) and touch $95,500 this time, I told you about the importance of this price in the previous post .
Note: If Bitcoin can break the Resistance zone($100,520-$97,200) , the 50_SMA(Daily) , and the Monthly Pivot Point , we should expect an increase to Cumulative Short Liquidation Leverage($103,210-$102,454) .
It doesn't seem reasonable for Bitcoin these days to provide a long-term or even mid-term analysis, and we need to stick to a series of resistance and support levels in order to determine the next targets. Do you agree with me?
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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HelenP. I Bitcoin will exit from triangle and reach $101K pointsHi folks today I'm prepared for you Bitcoin analytics. Looking at this chart, we can see that the price reached a resistance level aligned with the resistance zone and broke through it. Afterward, BTC continued its upward movement but eventually corrected, dropping below the 102600 level. However, it quickly reversed direction and made a strong upward impulse, breaking through the 102600 level once again. The price hovered around the 102600 level for some time before breaking below it and continuing to fall. Following this move, BTC reversed direction and, in a short period, rallied to the trend line, breaking the 102600 level yet again. After that, the price began to decline within a triangle pattern and soon dropped through the 102600 level, reaching the support zone, which coincided with a key support level. From there, BTC made a sharp upward move to the resistance level but immediately corrected again. Bitcoin fell to the support level and then rebounded upward. At the moment, it’s trading near the trend line. I expect that BTCUSDT will make a minor correction before rebounding to 101K, breaking through the trend line, and exiting the triangle formation. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Bitcoin Analysis—Bulls vs Bears—Who Will Win This Battle!?As I expected in the previous post , Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) attacked the Support zone($96,520-$95,720) and 100_SMA(Daily) but started to rise again. The increase in the last few hours has NOT been accompanied by high volume so far.
Bitcoin is moving in the Resistance zone($100,520-$97,200) and near the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , the upper lines of the Falling Wege Pattern , the Monthly Pivot Point , and 50_SMA(Daily) .
According to the theory of Elliott waves , Bitcoin seems to have succeeded in completing the Expanding Flat(ABC/3-3-5) near the upper lines of the Falling Wege Pattern . If Bitcoin goes above $99,200 , this wave count will expire .
Educational tip : If you cut the falling wedge pattern exactly in half, you will notice that most of the candles are in the lower half, and whenever Bitcoin hits the upper lines, it starts to fall immediately, which means that the power of sellers is more than buyers. Although the wedge pattern is a bullish pattern, we cannot expect an increase until the upper line is validly broken.
I expect Bitcoin to re-attack the 100_SMA(Daily) and Support zone($96,520-$95,720) in the coming hours, and if it breaks , it will also attack the lower line of the falling wedge pattern .
Note: If Bitcoin breaks the upper lines of the falling wedge pattern in huge volumes, we should most likely wait for the break of the Resistance zone($100,520-$97,200). However, the main resistance of Bitcoin is the $107,000 range.
Note: If Bitcoin manages to break the lower line of the falling wedge pattern and 100_SMA(Daily), we should wait for Bitcoin to attack the Heavy Support zone($93,300-$90,500) and Support lines.
Which scenario do you think will happen to Bitcoin?
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Bitcoin Analyze (BTCUSDT), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Next Volatility Period: Around February 16
Hello, traders.
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USDT and USDC are both renewing their ATH.
I think the gap increase of USDT and USDC is a sign of funds flowing in.
Therefore, we can see that a lot of funds are flowing into the coin market.
(BTC.D 1M chart)
If BTC dominance rises above 62.47, altcoins are likely to show a larger decline, so you should think about a response plan for this.
The rise in BTC dominance means that funds in the coin market are concentrated toward BTC.
BTC dominance does not mean that BTC is rising or falling.
(USDT.D 1M chart)
The rise in USDT dominance is likely to lead to a decline in the coin market.
If USDT dominance rises above 4.97, the coin market is likely to plummet.
Also, it is likely that it is already in a downward trend.
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Why is it falling when funds are flowing into the coin market?
I think it's because there's been a lot of upside, so it's expensive to buy now and profit taking is happening.
BTC is still in an ambiguous position to say that the downtrend has started.
I think that in order for the downtrend to start, it needs to fall below the Fibonacci ratio point of 1.618 (89050.0) and show resistance.
-
(BTCUSD 1D chart)
What we need to pay attention to is the trading volume.
If the price falls as the trading volume increases, it is likely to lead to further declines.
In other words, the possibility of continuing the downtrend increases.
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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)
I think indicators such as Bollinger Bands or Price Channels well express the nature of returning to the mean by forming a channel and confirming the convergence and divergence of the channel.
Currently, since it is maintaining a state of falling below the lower line of the Price Channel indicator, it shows that the force to fall is strong, and at the same time, it shows that the force to return to the mean is getting stronger.
Accordingly, if it rises above the lower line of the Price Channel indicator and maintains the price, it is expected to quickly return to the mean.
The currently set Price Channel indicator uses the MS-Signal indicator as the median, so the key is whether it can rise above the MS-Signal indicator and maintain the price.
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The newly added indicator this time is the StochRSI 50 indicator.
The most commonly used interpretation of the StochRSI indicator is the movement when it leaves the overbought or oversold zone.
However, as I mentioned earlier, the basic principle of the chart is regression to the mean, so the 50 point of the StochRSI indicator has an important meaning.
Therefore, it is judged that when the StochRSI indicator passes the 50 point, it is likely to act as support and resistance.
However, since the StochRSI indicator is located at both ends of the price candle as an auxiliary indicator, it may be difficult to intuitively see and interpret, so it was added to the price chart.
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Due to this decline, the HA-High indicator on the 1W chart is likely to move from the 94742.35 point to the 97226.92 point.
Accordingly, the existing 97461.86 point is expected to play an increasingly important support and resistance role.
Therefore, when the MS-Signal (M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator falls to around 97461.86, the key is whether the price can rise and be maintained around that level.
-
This volatility period is expected to continue until February 10.
The next volatility period is expected to be around February 16 (February 15-17).
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If the price falls while trading spot, it is not a good idea to wait without taking any action because you are at a loss.
However, if you respond too hastily, you may suffer double losses due to volatility, so you need to be careful.
Therefore, you need to check the point where you can realize profits in the big picture and have the mindset to sell a portion of the purchase principal at any time.
For this, I provide the MS-Signal indicator, BW (100), and HA-High indicators as representative indicators in my chart.
The fact that BW(100) and HA-High indicators were created means that it has fallen from the high point, so it means that the indicator point is likely to be the resistance point.
Therefore, it means that when it shows resistance near the indicator point, it is the time to sell in parts.
Since the MS-Signal indicator is an indicator for viewing trends, a drop below the MS-Signal indicator means that the trend is likely to turn downward.
If you sell some of the coins when these indicators show resistance and buy back the amount sold when the price drops, the number of coins (tokens) you hold will increase.
Ultimately, the longer the investment period, the greater the profit will be.
I call this method increasing the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to profit, or increasing the quantity.
If you sell the amount corresponding to the purchase principal in this way, the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to profit will eventually remain, and this will be in a state where the average purchase price is 0.
If you increase the number of coins (tokens) with an average purchase price of 0 in this way, you will always be in a state of profit even if there is a large volatility.
Then, you will be able to conduct transactions more stably.
At this time, what you need to pay attention to is the average purchase price provided by the exchange.
You should ignore this and conduct transactions based on the purchase price.
-
Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful transaction.
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- Big picture
I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire range of BTC.
(BTCUSD 12M chart)
Looking at the big picture, it seems that it has been maintaining an upward trend following a pattern since 2015.
That is, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year uptrend and faces a 1-year downtrend.
Accordingly, the uptrend is expected to continue until 2025.
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(LOG chart)
As you can see from the LOG chart, the uptrend is decreasing.
Accordingly, the 46K-48K range is expected to be a very important support and resistance range from a long-term perspective.
Therefore, we expect that we will not see prices below 44K-48K in the future.
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The Fibonacci ratio on the left is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2015.
In other words, it is the Fibonacci ratio of the first wave of the uptrend.
The Fibonacci ratio on the right is the Fibonacci ratio of the uptrend that started in 2019.
Therefore, this Fibonacci ratio is expected to be used until 2026.
-
No matter what anyone says, the chart has already been created and is already moving.
How to view and respond to this is up to you.
When the ATH is updated, there are no support and resistance points, so the Fibonacci ratio can be used appropriately.
However, although the Fibonacci ratio is useful for chart analysis, it is ambiguous when used as support and resistance.
This is because the user must directly select the important selection points required to create Fibonacci.
Therefore, since it is expressed differently depending on how the user specifies the selection points, it can be useful for chart analysis, but it can be seen as ambiguous when used for trading strategies.
1st : 44234.54
2nd : 61383.23
3rd : 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (Overshooting)
4th : 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (Overshooting)
5th : 178910.15
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Why Bull Market Is Not Over For Bitcoin BTC?Hello, Skyrexians!
Recently we have see the drop on BINANCE:BTCUSDT to $91k. We can't understand why it caused so much fear and negative in crypto communities. This is still next to ATH but fear and greed index dropped into the fear territory. This is great sign for bull run continuation and now we will explain you this statement with the technical analysis.
Let's take a look at the weekly time frame. Before December we had a great probability
that anticipated growth from $50k to $100k could be the final wave 5 of the bear market, but price action has broken the potential Awesome Oscillator's bearish divergence. It gives us the confidence that this move was just the wave 1 in wave 3. It means that the most impulsive growth ahead. The minimal target is 1.61 Fibonacci at $140k, maximal at $200k. We believe more in $200k, but watch out our updates because targets can be recalculated.
Best regards,
Skyrexio Team
___________________________________________________________
Please, boost this article and subscribe our page if you like analysis!
Bitcoin (BTC) – Current Market OverviewConsolidation Range:
Bitcoin is currently consolidating within a well-defined range between $92,000 and $108,000, with significant support holding above the $90,000 mark. This range presents trading opportunities for both buyers and sellers depending on market conditions.
The $92,000 support level is particularly important, as it provides a base for the price to hold above and indicates strong demand. As long as BTC remains above this level, the bullish outlook stays intact.
Market Dynamics & Volatility:
Recent selling pressure has caused some downward movement, but the price staying above $90,000 suggests that buyers are still in control, which supports a bullish thesis.
The market’s decreasing volatility indicates that Bitcoin is likely building momentum for a major move, with the current phase acting as a consolidation or accumulation period. This narrowing range could lead to a significant breakout once the price shifts direction.
Key Levels:
Resistance: The $108,000 level is a crucial resistance point. A breakout above this level could send Bitcoin on a bullish rally toward $124,000, as the price would be clearing a key area of selling pressure.
Support: The $92,000 support remains vital. A sustained drop below this level would put significant pressure on the bullish case, and further downside could challenge the current market structure.
Outlook:
Bitcoin appears to be coiling for a major move, with the market likely preparing for a breakout in either direction. A break above $108,000 could lead to further upside toward $124,000, while a drop below $92,000 would raise concerns about potential bearish action.
Conclusion:
Consolidation around the $92,000 to $108,000 range is providing an opportunity for Bitcoin to build momentum, with buyers maintaining control for now. A breakout above $108,000 would potentially push Bitcoin towards $124,000, but careful monitoring of the $92,000 support is key for maintaining the bullish outlook.
Bitcoin Range complete opposite of previous - Bullish Caution
Since January 2023, Bitcoin has risen to its current Value in 2 steps distinct and we sit on the 3rd step now.
But this Step is so VERY different and the potential Fragility exists
The chart explains this clearly.
The First step was in April 2023 and saw PA descend till June and remain in range till around October that year and saw a total retrace of around -20%. Lower Range Support was Horizontal and we were just above the 0.618 Fib extension
The 2nd began in March 2024, PA initially descended till May and then bounced back, remaining in range till October and saw a total retrace of around -25.6%. Lower Range Support was descending and the 1.618 Fib Extension was just below and was tested directly in the week of 5th August
Both began in Q2 ( approx) and ended in Q4 and both had an approx retrace of around -23%
Both were Very similar in date range, start and end. And Both were above the 618 Fib extension.
This time we have entered the "Step" in December ( Q4 ) and the under laying Support is Ascending. More than that, the line of resistance is the 2.618 Fib extension.
And this has led to a tricky situation really.
For a Start, we are in a tight pennant. The line of Resistance above is close
We do not have the time to Range and that pennant Apex is in late April. PA tends to react BEFORE we hit the APEX of triangles
The Ascending support has origins in 2017 and is the same line that PA used to Bounce higher in 2021 to reach the ATH in Nov. It is strong and we do not want to loose this.
But PA is Very OverBought and needs to cool off. When PA bounced of this line of Support in 2021, MACD was back down to Neutral. We are currently up high.
We need to repeat what we saw in previous "Steps" and let MACD cool off. It has begun on the weekly, but only Just turned Bearish
So what can we do ?
What seems to be happening is that PA is managing to remain in this triangle with an ascending support and a Very tight price range. We just saw this morning that PA has once again managed to bounce off this line after a sudden drop last night. Bulls Caught it on the line and we rise again
But what I have noticed is also how the Bitcoin Transaction count has lowered in the same period and maybe This is how we are managing to remain in this pattern ?
Less Transactions leads to less Volatility and so we keep a more stable Price range ?
Data from CRYPTOQUANT as TV does not do this metric ( wish they would )
Step 1
30 April 2023 ( Step 1 ) Transaction count was around 569K at start of that step to a Low of 445K on June 30 in Mid range
Step 2
From Feb Q1 2024, ( just beofre Step 2) we saw a continually rising transaction count that led to a peak of 671K on 22nd April. The Range has already begun by this point. 541K was the range low in August
Step 3, Current situation
As BTC PA rose Higher, we had transaction at nearly 850K but as we approached the range high we are currently in, Transaction count dropped dramatically, to 412K on Dec 16. to a Low around 398K in Mid December.
On Feb 9th ( yesterday ), we are back down to 385K
Is it this Low and currently descending Transaction count that is helping to keep PA in the Tight Range ?
Low Traffic will lead to less volatility but it maybe a fine line before Price Drops due to seemingly Lack on interest in the asset ?
Either way, We are in a Tight Triangle, currently with a Range height of around 10K
This is like a Balloon Full of Air, Getting SQUEEZED
Something has to go Pop at some point.
Technically, this has to be Lower and this could be pointing towards a TOP for now.
Maybe we are about to repeat the 2021 pattern of ATH early in the year, retrace and go for a New ATH in Q4
For me, this seems very possible - Unless PA breaks over that 2.618 Fib line.
We are under considerable and mounting pressure from the ascending Line of support
Maybe that line of support is strong enough to push us through ?
But be under NO illusion. Bitcoin Pa is under Huge strain right now but with strong corporate hands holding it steady, maybe......
Stay Tuned for The continuing Story of BITCOIN rise to greatness
Bitcoin Macro Update: Echoes of 2015-2017 | Gold, M2, and CPI
In this macro update, I dive into Bitcoin’s price action and how it mirrors the 2015-2017 cycle. We analyze key macroeconomic indicators, including Gold, Global M2 money supply, and FRED data, to understand Bitcoin’s positioning in the broader financial landscape. With inflationary pressures and CPI trends shaping liquidity flows, is Bitcoin primed for another parabolic run? lets let the market decide.
BTCUSDT Analysis BTC broke the downtrend line, and bullish momentum is on. The price bounced after the breakout point (green region) retest of $95,611, reaffirming firm support.
Hoping for a potential 6.76% return at $102,431!
The bulls will remain dominant if BTC stays above $95,611. A dip below this level will disrupt the setup.
Bitcoin to the moon?Bitcoin-Gold Ratio.
If you are going to trade with the big boys, there seems to be a good chance!
An inverse head and shoulders pattern!
What is this chart telling us? this chart is signaling a prolonged bull run (a protracted wave).
(what it might lead to) as a result: Gold could drop 80% against Bitcoin!
Remember, the market (pattern!) does not care what you think.
BTC = $ 96450
Gold = $ 2860
Feb 9, 2025
Appendix
The fat years
BTC SHORT TP:94,500 08-02-2025BTC is currently seeking a short position on a one-hour timeframe, with a take profit set in the range of 94,000 to 94,500. This expected movement should materialize within 8 to 16 hours; if it does not occur within this timeframe, the analysis will be deemed invalid. Please remain attentive for updates to monitor this position closely.
BTCUSDT, What will happen in upcoming weeks ?Hello Traders, Hope you're great.
for Upcoming weeks, I anticipate 2 Bearish scenarios :
In First Scenario, I expect price goes to the demand zone at first and does an upward correction to supply zone around 104-108K and after that starts to drop below 90K.
in Second scenario, I expect price does an upward movement and goes to grab liquidity above 110K and after that starts a major fall and drops to below 80K.
Targets have determined by Blue dashed lines.
and finally tell me what do you think about BTCUSDT, UP or DOWN ? comment your opinion below this post.
Weekend is coming - another liquidation coming? BTC strongly bounced Monday and formed a daily candle with a massive bottom wick. It is a bullish candle but that itself doesn't confirm the bull trend is going to start. It was definitely the buy the dip moment for spot buyers and hodlers.
However, if people are trading, the obvious stop of Stop/Loss is just below that wick on the Monday candle. Subsequent daily candles failed to close above 100K. All daily momentum indicators are entering the bear zone. Now the price is steadily moving down.
Weekend is coming. I can see another perfect setup for the long liquidation event. I hope I am wrong.
I think the next few weeks are critical for the BTC bull. Weekly MACD is touching but hasn't crossed yet, so I will continue to observe the price action.
If MACD lines clearly cross to the downside and stochastic has entered the bear zone. I would consider opening a short position. I will use a daily chart to identify an entry.
It has been a very challenging market.
BTCUSDT to bounce from 4h support towards weekly resistanceHere is the next trade setup for long. The price is likely to dip into 4h support zone deeper, but we will keep building position as the price dips further into the zone. Target is first 4h resistance 4HR1 then daily resistance DR1 and then weekly resistance WR1. We will evaluate the price action as it will reach these resistance milestones. There are retracement possible from these levels and therefore we will book some profit at these levels and will add on the retracements depdending on the charactersitics of the retracements.
BTC - Key Zones & Liquidity InsightsBINANCE:BTCUSDT is currently oscillating within a new trading range, establishing a trustable support zone while facing a weaker resistance trendline and resistance zone. Given this setup, a breakout isn’t the primary expectation just yet.
🔹 Key Observations:
Support Zone Strength: The support zone is stronger than the resistance, making it less likely for BTC to break downward easily.
Resistance Weakness: The resistance trendline and zone appear weaker, meaning any rejection could be temporary.
Liquidity Perspective: As seen on the liquidity chart, there’s favorable liquidity above the resistance zone, increasing the probability of a short-term push higher to hunt liquidity.
💡 Potential Scenarios:
1️⃣ BTC could move toward the resistance zone, tapping into liquidity before reacting.
2️⃣ If buyers step in aggressively, a short-term liquidity grab above resistance might trigger further upside.
3️⃣ Failure to reclaim key levels could lead to continued range-bound movement.
🚀 Stay ready for the next Bitcoin move! Follow for real-time updates and professional insights! 🔔